Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 16

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.

It's Week 16, which means two things. Christmas is right around the corner, and the fantasy football semifinals are here.

Since we all know which is more important (Do kids really need more stuff?) we'll get right to work on putting a bow on Week 16.

Because victory is the bestest present ever.

Chaos at Quarterback

There is quarterback uncertainty galore in the NFL in Week 16—just when fantasy managers can least afford it. Injuries. Benchings. Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Sometimes life is cruel.

Which fantasy starter are you gluing to the bench this week due to the chaos under center? Who are fantasy managers freaking out about more than they should?

Harris: Since you invoked Thompson-Robinson in framing the question, I'll start with Jerry Jeudy. It's been great for the former Bronco with Jameis Winston as his triggerman. Of course, Winston's 12 interceptions were a problem for the Browns. But not for us. The veteran signal-caller completed 61.1 percent of his pass attempts for 2,121 yards with 13 touchdowns, and 12 Jeudy was a prime beneficiary. Winston had 40 or more pass attempts in five of his seven starts, with Jeudy drawing 23 percent of the targets. Life was good. Will it be as good with Tompson-Robinson as his triggerman? Evidence suggests not. In four appearances this season, DTR has completed just 44.1 percent of his passes for 100 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Last season, Thompson-Robinson started three games as a rookie, completing 53.6 percent of his passes for 440 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. In three career starts, he's averaged 140 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense just demolished the Titans and got Will Levis benched, and Thompson-Robinson will be working behind an O-line that's allowed 58 sacks this season, tied for most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Drew Lock moves back into the starting lineup in New York. He was 42-of-81 for 405 yards and two interceptions in his two previous starts. Any team that's started four quarterbacks on the season has problems at the position. But to whatever degree anybody is freaking out about Malik Nabers, stop! The rookie wideout has earned himself a quarterback-proof card. He currently sits at WR10 on the season, despite missing two games to injury and his team playing musical chairs at quarterback. The key to Nabers' success has been volume. His 32 percent target share leads the NFL, and he has four games with 40 percent. No other wide receiver has done it more than twice. Expect more of the same against the Falcons on Sunday.

Davenport: My answers this week aren't going to be as verbose as the esteemed Mr. Harris—my freelance work at the North Pole has me wiped out.

Fun fact? Elves are not even a little bit jolly. And most carry a knife of some sort.

That I have to start Jeudy in at least one league this week makes me a sad panda—I'm going to be destroyed in the King's Classic playoffs. Again. By the same person. But his fantasy value was all but certainly wrecked by Cleveland's stupidity.

As a result, I'm off all the Cleveland receivers. Jeudy. Cedric Tillman. Tight end David Njoku. Just can't do it. The Browns passing game is all floor now. I know that Thompson-Robinson has targeted Njoku heavily in the past, but he's just a terrible quarterback. Jerome Ford garbage-time dump-offs feel like the most reasonable scenario. Yippee.

It's going to be fascinating to see what the change at quarterback in Atlanta does for the likes of wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Kyle Pitts—both of whom have been on fantasy milk cartons for some time now. Drake London weathered Kirk Cousins, mummification okay, but getting a live arm and functional legs back under center in Atlanta might just raise Mooney and Pitts from the dead.

The Naughty List

While you're navigating minefields, identify two players who will be starters for many teams in Week 16 who shouldn't be and "No"larize them before they steal Christmas.

Harris: Isiah Pacheco is back. Kind of. I mean, he's back on the field and in the lineup. He's getting work. But he's yet to demonstrate his usual dominance at the position, mostly because he continues to share with Kareem Hunt. Last week in Cleveland, the two running backs were near 50-50 in snaps and touches. As a result, his fantasy output has been minimal. Pacheco has scored 19.7 points over the three games since he returned. His 6.6 points per game leave him as RB42 over that span. On Saturday, Pacheco and the Chiefs face a tough Texans defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs since Week 8. I suggest keeping your expectations in check.

Najee Harris was barely involved in Pittsburgh's loss to the Eagles last week. He finished with just six carries for 14 yards as the Steelers found themselves playing from behind. According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, Harris' 14 offensive snaps from this game were a new career-low, while his 32.5 percent snap rate was the second-lowest in his career. This week, Pittsburgh goes up against a Baltimore defense that's given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position since Week 8, and that yields a league-low 3.4 yards per carry to running backs. Of course, that would be an upgrade for Harris, who has averaged 3.2 yards per carry since Week 10.

Davenport: Cue me nodding vigorously about Harris—Jaylen Warren will outpoint him this week, and it might not be all that close.

While we're on the subject of running backs facing stout run defenses, it appears that Ken Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks will be back in Week 16—just in time to face a Minnesota run defense allowing an NFC low 89.1 yards per game on the ground. Add in the fact that Walker's touches could be scaled back this week, and both he and Zach Charbonnet are iffy fantasy plays.

The Vikings are also allowing the most PPR points to wide receivers this year, so it's not hard to gameplan Minnesota—throw the damn ball. It's a different story with the Philadelphia Eagles—Philly ranks seventh against the run, first against the pass and is the only team in the league allowing less than 20 PPR points per game to wide receivers. Terry McLaurin of the Commanders is essentially impossible to sit, but brace thyself—a down week is a real possibility.