Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.

Week 15 has arrived, and with it (in most leagues) came the fantasy playoffs. For those teams fortunate enough to be playing on, losing is no longer an option. Anything short of victory will end the season. The flip side of that, of course, is that peeling off a few more wins could mean a fantasy championship.

It's nothing but extremes now. Despair or glory.

With Harris and Davenport, it should take about four seconds to figure out which one is which.

Point-arizing, Part 1

As you may have heard, the fantasy playoffs are underway in most leagues. Right now, fantasy managers need one thing—points. So, we're point-arizing this week's Polarizing Players. Pick one quarterback outside the top 15 in Footballguys Week 15 rankings who will crack the top 10. 

And one ranked inside the top eight who will not.

Harris: Chicago's Caleb Williams currently sits as QB21 in our rankings as the Bears prepare to take on the division-rival Vikings in Minnesota. I get the concerns. Things didn't go all that well in San Francisco last week, as the rookie signal-caller was held to 16.1 fantasy points. Still, he was QB11 on the week.

In the three games before that, coinciding with Thomas Brown taking over for Shane Waldron as Chicago's play-caller, Williams QB4 averaged 22.4 points per game. Factoring in his lower-end outing in San Francisco, Williams is QB7 over the last four games, averaging 20.8 points per game. I realize Minnesota has been a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Only three enemy field generals have scored 20 or more points against them all season.

One of them was Williams in Week 12. The youngster threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns in that one. He was QB4 that week with 24.9 fantasy points. Was that a fluke? Not in the context of his ongoing four-game run. But also, if I'm looking for QBs who might outperform their ranking in a given matchup, why not go with one who did it against the same opponent two weeks ago?

As for the top-eight quarterback most likely to not be in the top 10?

You must not bench Jalen Hurts, but you should set reasonable expectations. Remember, only one quarterback (Cincinnati's Joe Burrow) has scored 20-plus fantasy points against Pittsburgh's defense. Three others went over 15 points. That's it. In addition, as ESPN's Tristan Cockroft points out, they've faced four of the league's top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points scored on rushing plays -- Hurts leads that list -- and limited that group to 9.3 points per game (although that includes Anthony Richardson, who left the team's Week 4 matchup early due to injury).

One more time: You should not be benching Hurts. But you should be aware this is a challenging matchup.

Davenport: Hurts and Lamar Jackson are my two starters in Deathmatch—and yes, they cost me my first two picks. I'll confess the Steelers make me nervous. There's no margin for error in that league (as Harris, a former champion, knows all too well). If Hurts flops, that might cook me.

The 2024 season hasn't quite gone according to plan for the Miami Dolphins or quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and even though the Dolphins are winning now, the explosive downfield passing plays that were so common last year have all but evaporated. However, Tagovailoa has done an excellent job of taking what defenses give him, and over the past month, only Buffalo's Josh Allen has more fantasy points among quarterbacks. Weather won't be a factor for Tagovailoa this week, either—last I looked, the Texans play indoors like civilized people.

I was totally going to list Brock Purdy of the 49ers here, because hindsight. But since no one believes I can see the future (bunch of party-poopers, the lot of you), my reluctance will pass to Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings. Yes. Darnold was fantastic last week, setting a franchise record for passer rating. He also fared pretty well in Minnesota's last meeting with the Bears—330 passing yards and two scores. But the Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the NFC to quarterbacks this season, and a letdown week at the worst possible time would be just about the most Sam Darnold thing ever.

On the Run

Exactly no one expected Zach Charbonnet of the Seahawks, Isaac Guerendo of the 49ers, and Rachaad White of the Buccaneers to be the top three PPR running backs of Week 14.

Who will be this week's Iszachaad Charbuerendowhite? What big name is barreling toward a season-killing flop?

Harris: This week's surprise running back will be Denver's Jaleel McLaughlin. Yes, I wrote that with a far more confident tone than I felt. Could Javonte Williams end up dominating the workload here? Could we get another Audric Estime spike week? The truth is, none of us -- including McLaughlin, Williams, and Estime know. I'm not sure the guy who decides, Sean Payton, knows. But over the last two games, McLaughlin has been the most productive back on the roster, and it seems like the reports this summer suggesting that Payton was all about getting the ball in the speedy McLaughlin's hands are starting to play out when we need it most.

Assuming I get my way, and McLaughlin gets a reasonable workload, he's in prime position to cash in on it against a Colts defense that's been among the most generous to opposing running backs this season -- including giving up a whopping 30.1 fantasy points per game to the position over the last four games.

While we're in Denver, let's go with Jonathan Taylor taking that dive you're looking for. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out this week, since Anthony Richardson returned as the starting quarterback, Taylor's usage near the goal line and in the passing game has fallen off drastically. As a result, he ranks last among qualified running backs in fantasy points per touch. With coaches and Richardson embracing the QB's physical running style in scoring situations, Taylor's getting just 38 percent of the team's goal-line carries. His target share over that span is 3.9 percent. Also, Denver has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position over the last month.

Davenport: Ouch. I knew things were bad with Taylor. But those stats hurt my feelings. Just—oof.

This may be the final vestiges of hope draining from a longtime Cleveland fan's psyche, but Nick Chubb at the Browns at RB36 feels low—even in the single worst fantasy matchup for running backs. The Browns can move the ball with Jameis Winston under center, even if there's some uncertainty about which direction it will go. If Cleveland gets in close, Chubb will get the ball. And last week against the Steelers, Chubb actually looked somewhat like himself, averaging a season-high 4.4 yards per carry.

I'll go one spot lower than the inestimable Mr. Harris for my disappointing running back—to Rachaad White of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at RB19. This is a running back that many fantasy pundits spent most of the summer pointing out reasons not to like. He's an average talent. And even if Bucky Irving doesn't play, White still faces a bad matchup—the Chargers have given up the seventh-fewest PPR points to running backs this year. Frankly, the entire Tampa offense gives me pause in Week 15—that up-and-down team is due for a clunker at the worst possible time.