Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
It's Week 14, and in most fantasy football leagues, that means it's the end of the line—the end of the regular season. For many fantasy managers, that makes this week's edict clear. Win your matchup, or no more fantasy football until 2025.
No one wants to call the season curtains this early, so this week Harris and Davenport are doubly dedicated to helping guide fantasy managers to victory.
Well, Harris is. Davenport is sulking over his own failures this year and just being generally unlikeable.
It's a specialty of his.
Famous Jameis (and Friends)
Jameis Winston of the Cleveland Browns had quite the Week 13—a franchise-record 497 passing yards, two pick-sixes, and the most fantasy points among quarterbacks.
Winston was a hot commodity on waiver wires this week, but is there a quarterback ranked below Winston in the Week 14 rankings here at Footballguys you expect to out-point the gunslinger this week?
Harris: Facing a tough matchup against the Steelers, Winston's consensus ranking is low. He's QB18 this week, leaving us a shallow pool. So, I'm going to roll up my pants legs and stomp in that puddle and drag Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell, currently sitting at QB21, into my lineup.
As ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez put it, "O'Connell is who we thought he was." Making his first appearance since breaking the thumb on his passing hand in October, O'Connell was comfortable in the pocket against the Chiefs on Black Friday. He was effective on deep throws but displayed his trademark lack of mobility while taking three sacks. Still, O'Connell passed for 340 yards, completing 23 of 35 passes to finish as QB10 for the week with 21.6 fantasy points. This week, he goes up against a Buccaneers defense that allows the most points per game (22.4) to fantasy quarterbacks this season. They've given up double-digit scoring to the position in all but one game (Jared Goff was held to 8.78 back in Week 2). Nine of the 12 QBs they've gone up against have scored more than 18 points; seven more than 20; four more than 25; and two have scored more than 30 points.
There's no rushing equity here, but O'Connell, who also delivered a pair of 20-point outings late last season, has plenty of receiving assets capable of leveraging this matchup.
Davenport: Can we at least all agree that Jameis Winston is a joy to watch? Granted, you may do half that watching through your fingers, but he keeps things interesting, to be sure. What a performance that was—a fantastic, awful performance.
Before I have even finished writing this, I already regret it, but Kirk Cousins (QB25) of the Atlanta Falcons could be in for a rebound game this week against the Minnesota Vikings. Granted, there's nowhere to go but up after last week's four-interception nightmare. But the Falcons aren't without pass-catching talent. Minnesota ranks 28th in the league in pass defense, and there's a good chance the Falcons will be playing from behind.
Desperate times call for desperate measures and all.
All Aboard the Guerendo Train
Speaking of hot waiver wire commodities, if fantasy managers had any FAAB left, it was likely thrown at San Francisco 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo.
Will Guerendo really be the difference-maker so many seem to expect over the next month? And for those unfortunate souls who couldn't acquire him, is there another back outside the top 25 with the potential to be a solid spot start when many need one the most?
Harris: Over the first eight games this season, Jordan Mason handled the lead role in the 49ers offense. He had some RB1 weeks but was mostly a solid RB2, finishing as RB19 during that stretch. Christian McCaffrey returned after the team's Week 9 bye and delivered similar production. He was RB15 during his four games. Expecting Guerendo to deliver at the same level might be overly optimistic, but it's not unrealistic. The rookie is big, at 220 pounds, and has 4.33 speed in the 40. While his opportunities have been limited this season, he has flashed big-play potential. His longest run -- a 76-yarder against the Seahawks in Week 6 -- showcased his explosiveness. According to Pro Football Focus, Guerendo has recorded five explosive runs (gains of 10 or more yards), four of which were designed runs that exceeded 15 yards. He has totaled 246 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 42 carries while adding five receptions for 19 yards.
Kyle Shanahan has called Guerendo the starter. I know Shanahanigans are always possible, and the team promoted Patrick Taylor Jr. from the practice squad and added former Jet Israel Abanikanda to the roster. But for now, especially with six teams on bye, I'm seeing Guerendo like I saw Mason and McCaffrey: A solid RB2.
As for a back outside the top 25, there is much interest there. So, the easy answer is the one I expect to get the best workload -- and some fortuitous opportunities. That's Nick Chubb, who is RB27 this week. Oh, he also scored 19 fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 12. I realize 12 of those points came from successfully converting on a pair of goal-line carries, but did I mention those fortuitous opportunities? I'm not eager to roll Chubb out. But the Byemageddon is a thing, people. Sometimes, we have to do things we'd rather not.
Davenport: I'm inclined to agree with Harris here. Getting a lead back this late in the season off the waiver wire is a big deal for fantasy managers, and this week's opponent (the Chicago Bears) isn't especially good against the run. But there's a lot of "Top-10" and even "Top-Five" talk being bandied about with Guerendo. That's getting a tad carried away. This isn't to say he isn't going to help teams in the playoffs. But he isn't wearing a cape.
Isiah Pacheco of the Kansas City Chiefs sits right at No. 25, so I suppose he's out here—sigh. So, just like with the Cousins call, I'll throw caution to the wind and recommend another player who will inspire a facial expression like sniffing spoiled milk. Alexander Mattison of the Las Vegas Raiders appears to be on track to return from an ankle injury this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and assuming he is back, it will be against a team allowing the ninth-most PPR points per game to running backs this year.
Again, desperate times and all that…
Boom, Bust, Breakout
This one is fairly simple. That's a good idea, given the pundits undertaking it.
Three wide receivers. One "Boom" who will exceed expectations in Week 13. One "Bust" who will, you know. And one "Breakout" ranked outside the Top 40 (let's make it interesting) with the potential to carry teams to victory in Week 14.
Harris: I don't know if there's a player with more "boom" capability right now than Saints wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Last week, MVS was my choice of wideouts outside the top 40. This week, he's moved to WR35 on the Footballguys consensus rankings. He's definitely worthy of a WR3 spot. And I suspect he'll once again exceed that. And I say again because Valdes-Scantling is WR18 over his last three games with an average of 18.1 fantasy points per outing. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry notes, in addition to having four touchdowns in four games, MVS is benefiting from a monstrous 22.8 aDOT and has seen 55 percent of his targets on deep passes. This week, he faces a Giants defense that allows the highest completion percentage on passes of 20-plus air yards. They have allowed a 68 percent completion rate on those throws. Only one other team is higher than 46 percent.
My bust is the same guy who busts every week: 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel Sr. Although he currently sits at WR28 on the Footballguys consensus rankings, I wouldn't touch him with your ten-foot pole. Samuel hasn't hit double-digit scoring since Week 10, when he scored 12.6 points. He's hit 20 points once all season and only has four games with WR2 or better finishes (including a WR12 finish in Week 1 and a WR10 finish in Week 6). Over the last three games, he's WR71 with an average of 5.1 points per game, and he hasn't finished higher than WR57 over that span. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. NFL Network's Michael F. Florio points out they're also among the 10 stingiest defenses when it comes to YAC allowed to receivers, which is a specialty of Samuel.
There's no shortage of interesting players outside the top 40 at this position. I'll go with Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy, WR43, this week against the Chargers because I've seen this movie before. In Week 4, Worthy caught three passes for 73 yards against this same defense -- a unit that's allowed 11 different receivers (including Worthy) to rack up more than 70 yards.
Davenport: You leave my pole out of this, pal.
Kidding aside, couldn't agree more on Samuel. Jauan Jennings is the Niners' best wideout in 2025, just like we all predicted.
For my "Boom", I'll go with this week's WR26 at Footballguys—Calvin Ridley of the Tennessee Titans. The quarterback play (or lack thereof) in Nashville is always a concern. But the Jaguars are the worst pass defense in the NFL by a sizable margin, and only two teams have given up more PPR points per game to wideouts. Ridley hasn't scored in almost a month, but he'll find the end zone in Week 14.
My "Bust" is another big name who has been equally as disappointing as Samuel this year. Of course, between Las Vegas and the New York Jets, there's no shortage of disappointment swirling around Davante Adams, so maybe it was inevitable some would rub off. Aaron Rodgers looks done. Adams looks his age. And the Miami Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers this season.
Ridley's teammate Nick Westbrook-Ikhine sits right at WR40, so he's out—seems to be a theme this week. I'll go a bit farther down the list to Amari Cooper of the Buffalo Bills at WR46. Call it a hunch. Cooper has been quiet since joining the Bills, and the Rams haven't been a bad fantasy matchup for wideouts this year. Cooper is due to have a splash game with his new team—inside SoFi Stadium is as good a place as any.
Heading Downstream at Tight End
We're in the Year of Jonnu Smith. That's literally where we are at tight end. It used to be that everyone faded rookies—it took time for even Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski to make a dent. Now, a rookie (Brock Bowers) will likely lead the position in PPR points for a second straight year. Up is down. Right is left.
Throw some badly needed positive polarization out there with a Week 14 streaming option (outside the top 15). Who can spackle the hole at tight end that exists on so many teams right now?
Harris: Fire the Diss-Missile! Don't let last week's dud against the Falcons fool you. Will Dissly is back in play against a Kansas City defense that gives up the most receptions per game and the most yards per game to tight ends. They've also allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (17.1) to the position. Although he was shut out last week, Dissly's 15 percent target share on the season ranks third on the team. But since the team returned from their Week 5 bye, Dissly's 18 percent target share ranks second only to Ladd McConkey. Adding to the intrigue, it seems like the Chargers' rushing attack has turned toothless with J.K. Dobbins out of the mix; expect a busy passing day from Justin Herbert.
Davenport: I'm going to miss the playoffs in at least one league because of Dissly. Hate that guy.
I'd highlight Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons here, but at this point in the season, that would be the same as saying, "Maybe this week will be different for Deebo Samuel Sr."
However, I was able to add Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers in a few leagues where I needed a spot-starter this week, and fantasy managers could do worse. Freiermuth set season-highs in receptions and yardage and found the end zone last week against Cincinnati, and the week before that, the fourth-year veteran had a respectable four catches for 59 yards against the Cleveland Browns. Since Pittsburgh's Week 9 bye, Freiermuth is a top-10 fantasy option.
Plant the Flag
We're going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called "Plant the Flag."
Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top 25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: This is low-hanging fruit, but it's tasty nonetheless. If you haven't been paying attention, Mr. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is on a serious roll. He has at least one touchdown catch in seven of his past eight games (he had two against the Commanders last Sunday. Yes, I realize scoring a touchdown every 2.5 receptions is unsustainable -- even as he sustains it. But the usage has increased. Westbrook-Ikhine has seen at least a 20 percent target share in three straight games. In fact, he's seen at least five targets in each of those contests. If he gets that against a Jacksonville defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game, we might see a second-straight top-10 finish.
Davenport: Hey! I mentioned Westbrook-Ikhine first! No fair!
(This is what happens to second fiddles. Sigh.)
There was a time not that long ago when it appeared that the Chicago Bears' acquisition of veteran wideout Keenan Allen was going to be much ado about nothing. But since the Bears showed "offensive coordinator" (He was offensive, all right—to good football.) Shane Waldron the door, Allen has gone ballistic—14 catches, 159 yards, and three scores over the past two weeks. That's an admittedly small sample size, but this week's WR29 is most assuredly the proverbial hot hand right now.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.