Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 13

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.

Thanksgiving has come and gone, and Week 13 is kicking into full swing. With just a couple of weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, quite a few managers are in a position where they absolutely, positively have to find some way to scrape out a victory.

So, let's help them get one.

Panic Meter, C.J. Stroud Edition

This isn't a good time for fantasy managers to be worrying about starters, but the production from C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans of late has been—concerning. Been a while since a Panic Meter (1 to 5), and name a lesser name you think sails past Stroud this week.

Harris: The Panic Meter is at 1 for me. Panic has turned to resignation. Stroud is what he is right now. In Week 12, he threw multiple touchdown passes for the first time since Oct. 13, but he also threw multiple interceptions for the second time in three weeks and was sacked four times. Houston's line has allowed 17 sacks in its past four games. That seems like his season in a microcosm. So, he's fallen outside my circle of trust.

That said, he plays the Jaguars this week, and Jacksonville has allowed a league-high 23.1 points per game to the position this year. Eight opposing quarterbacks have scored at least 18 points against the Jags; seven have scored more than 20 points; two scored more than 30 points. By the way, one of those 20-point scorers was Stroud in Week 4 (23.5). So, I won't be surprised if Stroud comes through again this week.

That means finding a lesser light ready to soar past Stroud will be a challenge. The way to suss it out is to find the best matchup. That being the case, the team giving up the second-most points to opposing signal callers would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who give up 22.3 points per game to the position. This week, the Bucs will go up against a suddenly competent Bryce Young, who completed 21 of 35 passes for 263 yards and a TD while taking two sacks against a good Chiefs defense last week. He handled the blitz, in particular, like a seasoned pro. He was blitzed on 38 percent of dropbacks. He was 11 of 13 for a season-high 135 yards with a touchdown against five or more defenders.

Like the Jaguars, Tampa Bay has given up 18 or more fantasy points to eight enemy field generals. Six have scored over 20 points. Two have topped 30. I will acknowledge that, given similar matchups, expecting Young to outperform Stroud is a reach. But that's the whole idea here, and I'm embracing it.

Davenport: Harris hit the nail on the head (as usual) where Stroud is concerned. You can say that the Panic Meter is 5, but you're just howling at the moon—things aren't suddenly going to change where he's concerned. Even when Stefon Diggs was healthy, it's not like Stroud was posting big numbers—he has just four multi-touchdown games this season and hasn't thrown for 300 yards since the first week of October.

Stroud's not a QB1—although he should be a decent fantasy starter this week against the Jaguars' non-existent defense. If he can't get it done against Jacksonville, he should be glued to benches for the rest of the season.

Like Stroud, Kyler Murray of the Cardinals hasn't exactly been lighting up the stat sheet of late—just one touchdown pass over the last three games combined. If the Redbirds have any hope of beating the Vikings in Minnesota this week, it will have to be with the passing game—the Vikes are 28th in the league in pass defense this season. Murray has a good shot at a solid stat line in Week 13.

Rebound Running Back

It was a rough Week 12 for many running backs—injury and insult in equal measure. But that was then, and this is now—name a running back who goes from the outhouse to the penthouse in Week 13.

It can't be Saquon Barkley. He did OK.

Harris: Do I get to define the outhouse? If so, an RB1 (in this case, RB8 on the season) finishing outside the top 12 qualifies. And that means Kyren Williams, who's been struggling with ball security. He's fumbled four times in the last four games, with two coming during Sunday night's loss to the Eagles. The issues were enough for head coach Sean McVay to be asked on Wednesday whether Williams is still the starter. The good news? He is. The better news? This week, he gets a rebound opportunity against a Saints defense that's given up multiple rushing touchdowns to opposing backs in four of their past six games.

This is where I remind you that Williams ranks second in both red-zone and goal-line rushes this season.

But wait! There's more . . . New Orleans also allows the second-most yards per carry this season (5.1 yards), and they've given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. They've yielded at least 16 points to eight different backs, giving up 20 points five times and more than 30 twice.

Welcome back to RB1 territory, Kyren Williams!

Davenport: Like Williams, Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans has been a fantasy RB1 this season—he's ninth in PPR points at his position. Like Williams, Mixon had a letdown last week against the Tennessee Titans, posting his second-fewest PPR points of the season in Week 12.

Like Williams, Mixon should be well-positioned to rebound this week. The Texans have to be seething after last week's defeat, and the Jaguars aren't much better against the run than they are against the pass. Jacksonville has given up more than 135 yards on the ground per game this year, and the Jags have surrendered the second-most PPR points per game to running backs this season.