Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 12

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.

It's Week 12—and we are in full-on stretch run mode. For every fantasy manager playing spoiler or angling for a first-round bye, there are two who need a win this week. And next week. And the week after that. Losing isn't an option.

So let's go get a win.

Throwing Deep

Many fantasy managers are in survival mode as they navigate the Byepocalypse. Imagine yourself a Josh Allen manager riding high after last week's late-game heroics. If you could have any quarterback outside the top 18 in this week's rankings here at Footballguys, who do you want getting you the spot-start win?

Harris: Mmmmm . . . Cutlets. With Jones out, Tommy DeVito moves into the starting lineup, as he did when Jones was hurt last year. The Giants lost DeVito's first start in 2023, 49-17, in Dallas despite the QB tossing a pair of touchdown passes. The following week, DeVito threw three touchdown passes in a 31-19 victory in Washington, still the Giants' most recent 30-point performance. In his six starts, DeVito completed 95 of 149 passes (63.8 percent) for 581 yards, seven touchdowns (plus one when he relieved an injured Jones in Las Vegas), and three interceptions. DeVito also rushed for 166 yards.

On Sunday, he goes up against a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to the position (23.5 points per game). They've allowed the fourth-most passing yards, fifth-most passing touchdowns, sixth-most rushing yards, and third-most rushing TDs to the position.

Eight quarterbacks have scored at least 18 points against Tampa Bay; six have scored more than 20 points; two have scored more than 30. With a solid set of downfield weapons (Malike Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton), DeVito is well-positioned to outperform his QB21 ranking.

Davenport: You can't make me call DeVito anything other than Danny. Won't do it. Ever.

I understand the reluctance to trust Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears, believe me. He was drafted by someone I know well who totally isn't me to platoon with Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins this season. That has, um, yeah. Every time you think that Williams is turning a corner in the NFL, he walks into a wall. For the season. Williams ranks 20th in fantasy points among quarterbacks.

But Williams' first game after the Shane Waldron firing was his fourth-best fantasy outing of the season, and this week's opponent (the Minnesota Vikings) rank 28th in the NFL in pass defense. The Vikings also lead the league in run defense—for a Bears team likely to be trailing Sunday, the Vikings are much easier to throw on than run.

On the Run

You're going to notice a theme soon, but whatever—helpful beats clever (or something).

But before you spotlight that spot-start start in the backfield in a week without three of the top-five running backs in PPR points for the season, which big name is about to go splat at a terrible time?

Dud. Then Stud. Reverse greatness. Mix up the juju.

Harris: Chuba Hubbard has been getting the job done for the Panthers and fantasy managers alike. But this week? Hubbard is going up against a Kansas City defense that just limited Buffalo running backs to 49 yards on 19 carries (averaging 2.6 yards). This has been the norm. The Chiefs have held Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, Jordan Mason, James Cook, and both Tampa Bay RBs to less than 50 rushing yards. As a result, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to the position than the Chiefs 14.9 points per game. Adding to the concerns, rookie Jonathon Brooks will make his NFL debut. I don't know that he'll cut into Hubbard's workload significantly. But do we need another potentially limiting factor in a matchup like this?

He's not off the radar, but Brian Robinson Jr. is well-positioned to exceed his RB19 ranking this week. The Cowboys are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They've allowed more than 1,500 rushing yards and a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. I'm not expecting Robinson to match Joe Mixon's 109-yard, three-TD outing against the Cowboys this past Monday, but the second-year back could easily produce RB1-level production in this matchup.

Davenport: As was mentioned earlier, the Minnesota Vikings are a Jekyll-and-Hyde defense—porous against the pass, but best in the league against the run. 11 weeks in, the Vikings are surrendering just 74.4 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry this season. D'Andre Swift has actually been better with the Chicago Bears than I expected—but last week, Tennessee's Tony Pollard had nine carries for 15 yards.

At the other end of the spectrum, only one team in the league has given up more rushing yards per game than the aforementioned Dallas Cowboys. They were awful against the run before Dak Prescott got hurt, and it's only gotten worse. Robinson isn't the only Commanders running back who will eat in Week 12—Austin Ekeler has been a bigger part of the Washington offense than many expected, and he's been cleaning up on short passes from Jayden Daniels in recent weeks. Last week, Ekeler caught eight passes for 89 yards.