Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 5

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.

We're a month into the season, and everything has gone according to plan—said no one ever. Some players have met expectations, but it was one of the wilder Septembers in recent memory—and it most assuredly kept fantasy managers on their toes.

As we move into October, Harris and Davenport are trying to make sense of that wild September—starting with a high-end fantasy quarterback who hasn't posted high-end numbers so far.

Feeling the Hurts

The Philadelphia Eagles are on bye this week, but that's good—it gives Jalen Hurts managers a chance to rest their livers after a September that sent them scrambling for the Triple Sec. Hurts is ninth at the position in fantasy points for the season but just 20th over the past two weeks. 

Panic Meter time (1 to 10)—and is Hurts a “Buy” or “Sell” with an extra week for managers to make like Wayne Brady?

Harris: Hurts went into the bye week on a down note, but my panic level is low. Overall this season, Hurts has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 930 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions despite playing three games without his top weapon, A.J. Brown. He's been without his top two weapons -- Brown and DeVonta Smith -- for the last game and a half. Ball security is an issue. Hurts has committed at least one turnover in nine consecutive games, and Reuben Frank of NBC Sports contends they've all been the direct result of poor decision-making on his part, either by forcing throws, being careless with the football, or using poor recognition in the pocket.

Otherwise, preseason concerns that Saquon Barkley might keep Hurts from getting his usual share of rushing touchdowns have yet to be born out. Hurts is only one off last year's rushing TD pace to this point.

So, the Panic Meter is at about a 2. 

But you'd need Wayne Brady teaming up with Monty Hall, Mary Kay Ash, Zig Ziglar, and Dale Carnegie to get a reasonable return on Hurts. He's a hold and hope. 

Davenport: Harris and I agree on this much—trading Hurts isn't really an option unless you're willing to do so for 60 cents on the dollar, which is—unwise. I say that as a Hurts manager in quite a few leagues, and many of those teams aren't doing great. If anything, Hurts is a “buy low” target—depending on your level of confidence that he'll rebound to expected levels.

Where we differ is confidence level that he'll get to those expected levels, at least consistently. Both A.J. Brown's hamstring and DeVonta Smith's concussion are injuries that could linger, and we have learned these past couple of weeks that the depth at wideout behind that duo is poo. We have also learned that if Hurts presses, he makes mistakes. Turns the ball over.

Hurts needs healthy weapons and big rushing numbers to return value this year, and so far, we ain't getting it. Put me down as a 6—but there's not a lot to be done about it.

The Three Kings at Running Back

A month into the 2024 fantasy campaign, the top three fantasy running backs are Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints, Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles, and Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens. 

Time for some “Keep/Trade/Cut,” even if no one's getting cut—rank the trio for the rest of the year.

I've been in on Kamara all year based on the arrival of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. But even if I envisioned a Christian McCaffrey-type role, I never expected RB1 overall production for Kamara. I don't think that's sustainable. Henry has also been everything I expected. His remarkable combination of size and speed, used to great effect by Baltimore coordinator Todd Monken, set the veteran workhorse apart. Still, he'll need to continue to find the end zone on a regular basis to maintain his RB3 spot. Barkley? Eagles GM Howie Roseman tipped his hand when he zigged while the rest of the league was zagging. With the NFL devaluing the position, Roseman signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract.

What prompted Philly to buck the trend? Well, it turns out that devaluation was the very reason. "Has the pendulum swung so far at this position -- I mean, the guy touches the ball 300 times a year, hopefully," Roseman said. "There's not a lot of other skill position players that are touching the ball that many times and having that effect." I expect the Eagles to continue getting their money's worth out of Barkley and for Barkley to continue delivering at a high level.

Final ranking: 1. Barkley; 2. Kamara; 3. Henry.

Kamara edges out Henry due to his usage/skills as a receiving asset.

Davenport: All three backs have been fantastic this year. That much isn't debatable.

I'm in lockstep with Harris that Barkley is the most likely to retain his value all season long. Even before the injuries hit in Philly, he was a focal point of the offense. Once Brown and Smith went down, he became the focal point—and kept right on producing. He's an elite talent in his prime behind a top-five offensive line. All the ingredients are there.

After watching Henry run past the entire Buffalo defense for an 87-yard score on his first carry in Week 4, it's hard to bet against the big man. Henry leads the league in rushing after a month and will surpass 10,000 career rushing yards against the Bengals on Sunday. But he's also a 30-year-old back leading the AFC in carries. Can he really pull off a 340-carry season at his age?

That leaves Kamara, who has been the best fantasy value of the lot. Of the three offenses involved here, I have the least faith in New Orleans, more due to the personnel around Kamara than Kubiak, who has been an outstanding hire. Kamara's value is as high as it's going to get, so were I to deal one, it's likely him.

I'd rank them the same. Yay, groupthink!