Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 1

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Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that’s what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week’s most polarizing fantasy options.

The fantasy football season is officially underway after Thursday night’s opener between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. There will be no shortage of surprises in this first week of the season, so Bob and Gary’s mission this week is to make as many of those surprises as possible pleasant.

Davenport will self-destruct in 15 seconds.

Rookie Quarterbacks

The Week 1 narrative at quarterback will undoubtedly be about the rookies, especially Caleb Williams in Chicago and Jayden Daniels in Washington. Who has the best debut, and is it just one nice stat line or a sign of things to come?

Harris: As impressed as I was by Williams' exhibition showing -- and I was very impressed, he doesn't bring the same "Konami Code" rushing upside Daniels does. To be clear, he isn't primarily a runner. Daniels is a dangerous runner, but he was an equally, if not more dangerous, collegiate passer. He threw 40 TD passes and four interceptions at LSU last season. He rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs. Daniels delivered 103 explosive plays along the way.

That combination of big play and rushing ability set him apart. Sunday, his Commanders go up against a Buccaneers defense that, according to FantasyPros, allowed the third-highest passing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per attempt, and the 12th-most passing touchdowns (tied) last year. I suspect all that plays a hand in his Footballguys Week 1 projection (QB8). By the way, Williams is QB10; he will be fine. But if Daniels can rein in his willingness to take contact (it won't serve him well at this level), he has top-5 upside every week.

Davenport: I’m inclined to agree with Harris here (stunner)—Daniels rushing upside gives him a fantasy boost that Daniels just doesn’t have. And there’s a very real chance that the Commanders fall behind against the Buccaneers, which means Daniels throwing (and running) the ball all over Raymond James Stadium in the second half.

However, don’t discount the possibility that Williams emerges from Week 1 with the better debut. It can’t be argued that his supporting cast around him is better—the pass-catchers in D.C. get shaky quickly behind Terry McLaurin.

Miami vs. Jacksonville

There won’t be any shortage of high-end fantasy talent at running back at Hard Rock Stadium Sunday when the Dolphins take on the Jaguars. De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and even Jaylen Wright for the ‘Fins. Travis Etienne Jr. for the Jaguars. Who wins Week 1 and scores the most points? Who wins the month of September?

Harris: I'll take the easy route and go with Etienne based on anticipated volume. Yes, I'm aware Tank Bigsby had a strong camp. Yes, I realize the Jaguars would like to dial back his workload. This isn't new. In 2022, Etienne accounted for 74 percent of the Jaguars running back carries after James Robinson was traded to the Jets in mid-October. He finished that season accounting for 61 percent of the running back carries, and 60 percent of the running back touches.

In an effort to dial back that volume in 2023, the Jaguars signed free-agent running back D'Ernest Johnson and drafted Bigsby in the third round. And yet . . . Etienne's workload increased. He had 75 percent of the running back carries and 76 percent of the running back touches. On the other side of the ball, Achane's upside is undeniable (he was RB4 in fantasy points per game in the 11 games he played), but Mostert is not going away, and Wright is a wildcard. So, I will chase the anticipated volume and say Etienne, both in Week 1 and September, while acknowledging Achane's play-making ability makes me nervous.

Davenport: Etienne is undoubtedly the safest call of the lot, and we’re in agreement that he’ll most likely have the best month of September of any of these backs. Volume turned Tampa’s Rachaad White into a top-five back last year, and while Etienne may not be Barry Sanders, he’s a far more talented player than White.

With that said, I’m going to go out on the proverbial limb with my call for the No. 1 back of the lot in the season opener. Fantasy managers are no doubt anxiously awaiting Raheem Mostert being relegated to the fantasy scrap heap. It was reflected in the ADPs of both Mostert and De’Von Achane this summer.

Mostert is old (by running back standards, he’s ancient). And he has an injury history. But he’s also still technically Miami’s lead running back, he’s healthy for now at least and he’s coming off an RB5 fantasy finish in a season where he led the league in rushing touchdowns. If the Dolphins get in close, Mostert’s going to get the ball—and a goal-line score could be just what it takes to put him over the top relative to the others.

Worrisome Wide Receivers