Perfect Draft, 12-Team Home League

Photo: USA Today Sports

From our owner, Joe Bryant:

Footballguys coined the Perfect Draft article series way back in 2002 when co-founder David Dodds started the series. We featured detailed stat projections and the principles of my Value-Based Drafting system Footballguys was built upon.

Over the years, it's become one of our cornerstone strategy features, delivering a clear plan for crushing your draft. Our stated goal at Footballguys is to help our customers win more at fantasy football, and the Perfect Draft series is a big part of how we do that.

Way back in 2002, David identified two key principles for a Perfect Draft:

1. All Players Have Value

Most of life can be referenced in The Godfather movie. In this case, it's keeping it business, not personal. This means: don't love or hate players. Don't get emotionally attached. Your goal for a Perfect Draft is to draft players who'll significantly outperform their draft position.

I don't believe in "Do Not Draft" lists. I do believe in "I won't draft him at his current Average Draft Position, so I probably won't be getting him" lists

2. Understand Your Competition In The Draft Room

Whether it's players for your draft, a new car, or Top Shot NFT, if you want to find a good deal on something, you first have to understand the market price of the thing. The going rate that most people agree something is worth. To find good deals in your fantasy draft, you must first understand your competitors' value of a player. In an Auction Draft, this is easy to see. In a regular draft, the cost of a player is their draft position.

You'll have the Perfect Draft when you select players who are more valuable than the cost of the spot where you draft them. You need to know how you value a player and how the other GMs in your league value a player. We provide this crucial information for you with our Average Draft Position Data.

I'll add four more.

3. Understand Your Scoring System And Your League

This one is the biggest thing I see fantasy GMs miss. It’s the foundation of my Value-Based Drafting system. Your scoring system matters. A LOT. Your starting lineup requirements matter. A LOT. The number of teams in your league matters. A LOT. You're reading a specific article written for a 12-team PPR league with a specific scoring system and starting lineup requirement. We’ll say more below, but in this league, you can very likely wait on a quarterback as they're less valuable. But that’s not all leagues. Fortunately, we’ll do all that for you with our Custom Cheatsheets or our Draft Dominator if you want maximum flexibility. We’ll do the work for you.

4. Flexibility

If you go in fixated on drafting two running backs in the first two rounds or avoiding running backs in the first two rounds or never taking a player over 30 years old or any host of inflexible rules you place on yourself, you won't have the Perfect Draft. Be flexible.

It's the adage of letting the game come to you. You need clear valuations of players. And you need a plan of how things may unfold based on what your leaguemates will do, and then you let the draft come to you. Respond appropriately as it unfolds.

5. Preparation

Think about it. Study the players. Tweak the values. And most importantly, think about how it will unfold. This is where mock drafting can be invaluable. Our Draft Dominator offers sophisticated mock drafting capability. If you do multiple mocks with it, you'll get different results each time.

In a draft setting with a short timer for each pick, there's little time to think. You need to have already thought. And execute based on the values you've already determined.

The very fact you're reading this article right now tells me you're on the right track with this one. Stay with it.

6. Get Your Guys And Have Fun

Regardless of the entry fee, almost all of us play fantasy football because it's fun. We think we know more about picking players than the other folks. Building and managing a team is fun. It's the foundation of our hobby. So have fun.

If you're a Dolphins fan and you hate Josh Allen - as every Dolphin fan should - you don't have to draft him. Even if he's there at a bargain. You can draft him. You can make the case you probably should draft him. But don't remove the fun from the value equation. You don't have to draft him.

You'll see plenty we love below as our Clayton Gray breaks down the pockets of value that will help you win.

Pull up a chair. Settle in. You got this.

Let's Have the Perfect Draft

This Perfect Draft is based on a 12-team league that starts the following players:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (RB, WR, or TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

The league scoring is as follows:

• Passing TD = 4 points
• Passing Yard = 0.04 points
• Turnover = -1 point
• Rushing/Receiving TD = 6 points
• Rushing/Receiving Yard = 0.1 points
• Reception = 1 point

And in an 18-round draft, this will be your average roster construction:

• 2 quarterbacks
• 6-7 running backs
• 6-7 wide receivers
• 1-2 tight ends
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

The Top 60: Building Your Core

Below are the Top 60 players based on the above scoring system. These 60 players will be your focus for your first five picks and form the core of your team. Using our Rankings Page or the Draft Dominator will give you a Top 60 completely customizable to your league. That custom ranking is highly recommended.

Your First 5 Picks

In general, you should take the best player available on that list for your first five picks. But use good judgment when making your selections. Remember, all these points apply to just this league.

• Don't draft all wide receivers, for example, with your first five picks. While those players may have been the best value at each of your picks, it's tough to have the Perfect Draft when you start with five players at the same position group. Remember, your starting lineup in this league only allows four wide receivers to be started each week.
  
  
• Mind the ADP when you pick. If the top two players on the board have ADPs of 5.12 and 3.07 (in that order) and your next pick is 4.04, the 5.12 player will probably be available at your next pick. So you could gain more value by taking the 3.07 player now and then targeting the 5.12 player next.
  
  
• But don't push those ADP edges too hard. If the top two players on the board have ADPs of 5.12 and 3.07 (in that order) and your next pick is 5.10, the 5.12 player might not be available at your next pick. It would be best to go ahead and take the 5.12 player now.
  
  
• It's probably not best to take multiple tight ends in these first five selections. It's hard to get good flex value from a tight end in normal PPR leagues. Plus, they aren't valuable trade pieces unless they are elite producers.
  
  
• In the past, it was encouraged to pass on quarterbacks early. That's not as concrete of a rule anymore. If they are the best value on the board, feel free to take a single quarterback in the first five rounds.
  
  
• Don't mind the bye weeks. There is plenty of time later in the draft to fix any bye-week issues. Plus, the roster you exit your draft with almost always looks different than the roster you'll have in Week 12. The Week 12 bye issues you stressed over during your draft usually go away on their own through normal free agency and trading.

Assessing Your Core

After your first five picks, you focus on rounding out your team based on need. This is a key point in roster-building:

The players you select the rest of the way are completely determined by who you have already selected.

Here are three specific questions you need to answer:

• How many running backs do you have? According to ADP, the average team will have 1.58 running backs after five rounds. You won't need to quickly target the position if you are above this number. If you are below this number, you'll need to return to running backs in the next few rounds -- maybe multiple times.
  
  
• How many quarterbacks and tight ends do you have? According to ADP, the average team will now have 0.58 quarterbacks and 0.5 tight ends. There's no need to worry if you don't have players at these positions. There will be value for you throughout the draft. If you have one, you can comfortably avoid taking more at that position for a while. If you have multiple players at either position, you're probably done at the position for the rest of the draft.
  
  
• How do your bye weeks look so far? In a perfect world, you'll have no overlap. But overlap happens, and it can be dealt with. If you already have three or more players with the same bye week, you may need to actively avoid that week unless a player is just too good of a value to pass up. You can also target players with a weaker opponent for that week. The Draft Dominator will do this for you automatically.

Assessing Positional Needs

Now, we'll look at each position and show how to best fill each.

Quarterback

You can skip this section if you drafted a quarterback in the first five rounds. Either take an upside guy deep into your draft or just leave the draft with one quarterback. You can snag someone off the waiver wire just before your starter's bye rolls around.

If you don't already have a quarterback, let's solve that position.

Here are the quarterbacks you should be willing to draft as your starter.

If you do not have a quarterback and someone from Josh Allen through Jordan Love is still available, take him now and be willing to start him every week.

Most likely, those quarterbacks are gone, though.

And that's fine.

If everyone through Love is gone, you now have an easy path: Be willing to be the last team in your league to draft their starting quarterback.

Yes. Be the last team in this league to draft their starting quarterback.

The teams that already have starting quarterbacks aren't looking to add another. Think about it. Are you worried about his backup if you have Allen, Hurts, or Mahomes? Of course, you aren't. And your opponents aren't either.

The truth is this: Once 11 teams have a starting quarterback, there is no pressure at the position. You can wait. You can even wait for a few rounds. Even though they have Round 9 ADP, someone like Goff or Tagovailoa will still be there in the 10th or even 11th round.

And if tragedy strikes and those guys are taken from you, all is not lost. The list of serviceable starting quarterbacks is deep.

Your Backup Quarterback

Remember the key tenet from the Assessing Your Core section? It still applies. When you should draft your backup quarterback depends entirely on when you drafted your starter. If you followed the Perfect Draft plan and were the last team to draft a starter, feel free to be one of the first to take a backup. Even going back-to-back at quarterback is viable. If you did take a quarterback earlier, be willing to wait for a long time to get a second signal-caller.

Running Back

In home leagues with this setup, running back is the most important position on your roster. As more and more NFL teams deploy multiple backs, the supply of premier fantasy assets is low. If you followed the Perfect Draft blueprint, you will likely have one to three quality running backs after the first five rounds.

Before we dig into backfield depth, if anyone from the Top 60 list from the core-building phase is available, go get them.

Running Back Depth

There are two kinds of depth at running back:

• Running backs with clearly defined roles. These could be short-yardage or third-down backs. They likely won't consistently score high, but they will keep you from getting zeros if you start them occasionally.
  
  
• Running backs without a defined role but with clear potential if things break for them. These guys are currently behind established starters. They need another back to be injured or to falter before they get a large number of snaps. But if they get those snaps, they'll be great fantasy commodities.

The good news is that a few players have roles and potential. Take Jaylen Warren, for example. He should have a handful of carries each week and get work out of the backfield. But if Najee Harris misses time, Warren could be a workhorse back.

You want to have both kinds of depth. You can't go into a season with a backfield solely full of potential because, sometimes, all of that potential takes eight weeks to be fulfilled. And you can't have a team loaded with third-down backs because they generally don't have the potential to be game-changers if things hit right.

You want at least four backs who currently have a defined role on their team. Whether that role is a workhorse or third-down back, you want running backs who play a part for their teams. The brutal nature of the position -- not to mention the 17-game schedule -- means these players will accumulate injuries. After getting four role-players, you can add two or three guys with potential.

Running Backs with Roles

Remember, you want four running backs with defined roles. So if you came out of the first five rounds with two running backs, you need two of the ones listed above. If you already selected four in the core-building phase, you aren't required to take anyone above.

Running Backs with Potential

You want two of these, but don't count any of the backs you took as a role-player. Say you took Tyjae Spears as your fourth back. You would count him as a running back with a role and still want to go after two or three runners with potential.

Wide Receiver

The NFL is all about passing. That not only lifts quarterbacks but also elevates wide receiver scoring. That also leads to a wide variety in wide receiver rankings. Some wide receivers will fall past their ADP in almost every draft because some of your competitors will prefer other options.

Scoop this value throughout your draft by staying on a good pace at wide receiver.

But what is a good pace at wide receiver? Let's find out.

Wide receiver is the only position where it's best to build at a steady tempo. If you draft four early, your backup wide receivers have a hard time seeing the starting lineup. Plus, your other positions will lack quality. If you don't tend to your wide receiver corps for a while in your draft and then pile up bodies later, you'll end up with a group of similar players and have multiple difficult start/sit decisions every week. For a Perfect Draft, you want to select wide receivers at a firm clip.

Generally, try to stay around these numbers:

• After 5 rounds, have 2-3 wide receivers
• After 8 rounds, have 3-4 wide receivers
• After 11 rounds, have 4-5 wide receivers
• After 14 rounds, have 5-6 wide receivers
• After 18 rounds, have 6-7 wide receivers

Wide Receivers We Like at ADP

Everyone on the Top 60 list from the core-building phase. If any of those receivers are still available after Round 5, go get them. Otherwise, take from this list.

The list above isn't exhaustive. Those are just players we like. If there are receivers you like who are not on that list, feel free to deviate. Remember the have fun rule! Just stay on pace and stockpile the position.

Tight End

Over the last several years, the role of the NFL tight end has gone from blocker-who-will-sometimes-catch to dynamic, play-making receiver. Over half the league has a tight end with the potential to be a viable fantasy starter. That means, in most leagues, there isn't much pressure to reach for a player at the position.

You can take three paths at a tight end.

Path 1

Take a tight end in the core building phase. If you did this, you should probably close up shop at the position and just play the waiver wire if something happens to your elite player.

Path 2

Take one of these and either call it a day or consider taking a shot at a backup if the value is right.

Path 3

Take two of these (and preferably at least one from the left side of the table).

Note on Hockenson: If you take him, you'll need someone else to start early in the season. Hockenson won't be back from injury for at least a few weeks.

Don't be surprised if several of these tight ends aren't drafted at all. There isn't much pressure on this position.

Kicker

In the olden days, aka "Before Value-Based Drafting," even experienced drafters would take kickers in the top half of their drafts. Sadly for good players, those drafts are gone. In most leagues these days, kickers go late. Usually, in the last few rounds.

Whatever happens in your league, you have a couple of strategies. They are both simple; just pick one:

• When six kickers have been taken, pick the highest one available on your list.
• In your second-to-last round, pick the highest one available on your list.

Some drafters will still take a pair of kickers. They'll say, "Got to have a backup," as they walk back from the draft board. If you have a few of these people in your league and try to wait until the end of the draft to take a kicker, you could be stuck with a shaky option to start the season. Each of these strategies keeps that from happening without costing you much in the way of value. As you remember from the earlier sections, there are plenty of sleeper running backs and wide receivers with ADPs beyond Round 18.

And here's the list:

• Brandon Aubrey, DAL/7
• Justin Tucker, BAL/14
• Harrison Butker, KC/6
• Younghoe Koo, ATL/12
• Matt Gay, IND/14
• Jake Moody, SF/9
• Tyler Bass, BUF/12
• Jason Sanders, MIA/6
• Jake Elliott, PHI/5
• Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU/14
• Cameron Dicker, LAC/5
• Evan McPherson, CIN/12

Bonus Kicker Strategy

Selecting a kicker with a late bye week can be helpful. That late bye week will allow you to worry about bye issues at other positions without using an extra roster spot at kicker.

Team Defense

While not as maligned as the kicker position, team defense is an afterthought for many drafters. The Perfect Draft doesn't have time for afterthoughts, but the same rules generally apply here.

So, for defenses, follow the same strategy you did with kickers (except take a defense before a kicker).

Pick one of these paths:

• When six defenses have been taken, pick the highest one available on your list.
• In your third-to-last round, pick the highest one available on your list.

And here's the list:

• Dallas Cowboys
• Baltimore Ravens
• San Francisco 49ers
• New York Jets
• Cleveland Browns
• Buffalo Bills
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Miami Dolphins
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Houston Texans
• New Orleans Saints
• Philadelphia Eagles

Bonus Defense Strategy

Again, as with kicker, selecting a team defense with a late bye week can be helpful. That late bye week will allow you to worry about bye issues at other positions without using an extra roster spot at defense.

Extra Bonus Defense Strategy

With only 12 defenses in our draft list, there's a chance you'll miss out on them. If so, just go to our strength of schedule page and find a defense that has an easy Week 1 opponent.

Now go have your Perfect Draft!

Follow @Footballguys