Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 3 Passing Matchups
As the playoffs progress, the number of great passing matchups becomes limited. This section's purpose is to determine the best passing matchups for this week, but that does not mean that they are great passing matchups. Please refer to the chart at the bottom for the team grades as if this was a normal week.
Washington at Detroit
Jayden Daniels and the Washington passing game took advantage of the favorable matchup last week against Tampa Bay as they threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, and Daniels completed 69% of his passes. This past week, we finally saw the Dyami Brown breakout game, as he had 89 yards and a touchdown. There is some caution here: he only saw five targets, which is in line with his four games where he had either four or five targets. The return of Austin Ekeler gives the Commanders another weapon in the passing game, albeit potentially at the expense of Olamide Zaccheaus, as the 5-foot-8 receiver had just three targets last week despite being on the field for 68% of the plays. Ekeler, on the other hand, was on the field for 47% of the snaps, which was extremely encouraging moving forward as after being on the field for 60% of the snaps in Week 18, it seems that he is fully healthy and there are no concerns after an IR stint due to a concussion. This offense will once again need to throw the ball to win the game, as Detroit boasts one of the league's best run-stopping units, similar to Tampa Bay last week.
Detroit's secondary has been a problem all season, but they did show promise in their must-win Week 18 game as they dominated the Vikings, holding Sam Darnold to just 166 yards passing, and the Vikings completed just 43% of passes. On the year, Detroit is allowing 259 passing yards per game, the fifth-most of any team in the NFL, and is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Things got worse in Week 15 when their lone NFL quality cornerback, Carlton Davis, was lost for the season. Since Week 15, even with that impressive Week 18 performance, Detroit has allowed 319 passing yards per game, with Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, and Brock Purdy all throwing for over 300 yards. First-round rookie Terrion Arnold has been one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL this season. Arnold is questionable this week. While it appears that he will play, if he were to miss, Kindle Vildor would get the start. Unfortunately, he has been equally bad this year. The one bright spot in Week 18 was Amik Robertson. Robertson was forced to move from the slot where he played all season to the outside, and while it took a couple of weeks to get used to the position, he was critical in the Lions shutting down Justin Jefferson and the Vikings' defense. Robertson is as critical of a player on this defense that the team will need another dominant performance from him if they can show any signs of improvement to help the Lions' Super Bowl aspirations.
Baltimore at Buffalo
Lamar Jackson has been one of the league's most efficient passers in 2024 despite having limited receiving options. The big question for the Ravens this week is the health of Zay Flowers, who missed last week due to a knee injury. It seems unlikely that Flowers will play this week, although John Harbaugh has mentioned that even if he doesn't practice this week, there is still a chance that he could play in this game. Without Flowers, the Ravens heavily utilized their tight ends, as Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews led the team in yards. However, no player had more than four targets last week (Likely and Justice Hill each had four), while the Ravens threw the ball just 21 times. Both Tylan Wallace and Rashod Bateman only saw about 50% of the snaps last week, as the team went with a heavy package of two tight ends and two running backs for a majority of the game due to the positive game script. The passing upside here is entirely related to the game script, as the Ravens would love to have another run-heavy approach similar to their first meeting against Buffalo, but if they need to throw, expect Bateman to have a much larger role than he did last week.
Over the second half of the season, Buffalo has shown some weaknesses against the pass. Since Week 9, the Bills have allowed 256 passing yards per game, the fourth-most in the NFL. Buffalo has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt since Week 9, which is second in the NFL. The Bills have also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven of their last ten games dating back to Week 9. The Bills are a defense that is good enough to shut down below-average passing offenses as they shut down Bo Nix, Joe Milton III, and Aaron Rodgers, but struggled mightily against Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Drake Maye. The issue for Buffalo is that while Christian Benford is a shut-down corner, the rest of the secondary has struggled in coverage this season. Rasul Douglas, opposite of Benford, has struggled compared to his 2023 season, and we've seen a significant decline in safety play as both Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp have been liabilities in coverage this year. In the team's first meeting, Baltimore threw the ball just 18 times as Baltimore opened a significant lead early in a 35-10 victory.
Philadelphia vs LA Rams
The Eagles‘ passing offense has struggled down the stretch, as Jalen Hurts has failed to top 200 passing yards in four of his last five games. Last week, the Eagles were once again content to rely on their defense and running game as they threw the ball just 21 times. Excluding Week 18, where Hurts played just one series, he's averaging just 22 pass attempts per game over his last ten games. Last week, A.J. Brown had just three targets, catching one pass for ten yards, as there is not enough volume in this offense to consistently trust that Devonta Smith and Brown can succeed in this offense. As long as the Eagles continue to have a positive game script, nothing is going to change this week. In their first meeting, Hurts threw the ball just 22 times in a 37-20 victory as Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns.
The Rams' secondary had their best performance of the season last week as they dominated the Vikings. Sam Darnold threw for 245 yards and a touchdown, but Darnold was sacked nine times as he never looked comfortable and could not consistently find open receivers downfield. This is an inconsistent defense but, on the season, has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They've struggled with mobile quarterbacks throwing the ball as Kyler Murray (321 yards), Josh Allen (342 yards, 3 touchdowns), Drake Maye (282 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Geno Smith (363 yards, 3 touchdowns) all had massive games against them. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Eagles did not need to throw the ball as Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Jalen Hurts threw the ball just 22 times but did throw for 8.1 yards per attempt as he ended the game with 179 yards in that game. While the Rams' secondary has exceeded expectations, this unit still features two slot corners playing the outside, which has been a problem as they've allowed seven receivers to top 100 yards this season, including A.J. Brown, who had 109 yards and a touchdown. The Rams may be without Ahkello Witherspoon, who has been their best cornerback, this week, as he did not practice with a thigh injury on Wednesday. If he's unable to go, this would be a significant loss, as the drop-off to Cobie Durant is quite significant. A key matchup in this game could be if A.J. Brown finds himself on Darious Williams, as Brown would have four inches and over 40 pounds on the smaller corner.