Week 20 Passing Matchups

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 3 Passing Matchups

As the playoffs progress, the number of great passing matchups becomes limited. This section's purpose is to determine the best passing matchups for this week, but that does not mean that they are great passing matchups. Please refer to the chart at the bottom for the team grades as if this was a normal week.

Washington at Detroit

Jayden Daniels and the Washington passing game took advantage of the favorable matchup last week against Tampa Bay as they threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, and Daniels completed 69% of his passes. This past week, we finally saw the Dyami Brown breakout game, as he had 89 yards and a touchdown. There is some caution here, which is he only saw five targets, which is in line with his four games where he had either four or five targets. The return of Austin Ekeler gives the Commanders another weapon in the passing game, albeit potentially at the expense of Olamide Zaccheaus, as the 5’8’’ receiver had just three targets last week despite being on the field for 68% of the plays. Ekeler, on the other hand, was on the field for 47% of the snaps, which was extremely encouraging moving forward as after being on the field for 60% of the snaps in Week 18, it seems that he is fully healthy and there are no concerns after an IR stint due to a concussion. This is an offense that will need to throw the ball once again to win the game, as Detroit boasts one of the league’s best run-stopping units, similar to Tampa Bay last week.

Detroit’s secondary has been a problem all season, but they did show promise in their must-win Week 18 game as they dominated the Vikings, holding Sam Darnold to just 166 yards passing, and the Vikings completed just 43% of passes. On the year, Detroit is allowing 259 passing yards per game, which is the fifth-most of any team in the NFL, and is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Things got worse in Week 15 when their lone NFL quality cornerback, Carlton Davis, was lost for the season. Since Week 15, even with that impressive Week 18 performance, Detroit has allowed 319 passing yards per game, with Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, and Brock Purdy all throwing for over 300 yards. First-round rookie Terrion Arnold has been one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL this season. Arnold is questionable this week, and while it appears that he is going to play, if he were to miss, Kindle Vildor would get the start, which has been equally bad this year. The one bright spot in Week 18 was Amik Robertson. Robertson was forced to move from the slot where he played all season to the outside, and while it took a couple of weeks to get used to the position, he was critical in the Lions shutting down Justin Jefferson and the Vikings' defense. Robertson is as critical of a player on this defense that the team will need another dominant performance from him if they can show any signs of improvement to help the Lions’ Super Bowl aspirations.

Baltimore at Buffalo

Lamar Jackson has been one of the league’s most efficient passers in 2024 despite having limited receiving options. The big question for the Ravens this week is the health of Zay Flowers, who missed last week due to a knee injury. It seems unlikely that Flowers will play this week, although John Harbaugh has mentioned that even if he doesn’t practice this week, there is still a chance that he could play in this game. Without Flowers, the Ravens heavily utilized their tight ends as both Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews led the team in yards. However, no player had more than four targets last week, as Likely and Justice Hill led the team with four targets, while the Ravens threw the ball just 21 times last week. Both Tylan Wallace and Rashod Bateman only saw about 50% of the snaps last week, as the team went with a heavy package of two tight ends and two running backs for a majority of the game due to the positive game script. The passing upside here is entirely related to the game script, as the Ravens would love to have another run-heavy approach similar to their first meeting against Buffalo, but if they need to throw, expect Bateman to have a much larger role than he did last week.

Over the second half of the season, Buffalo has shown some weaknesses against the pass. Since Week 9, the Bills have been allowing 256 passing yards per game, which is the fourth-most in the NFL. Buffalo has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt since Week 9, which is second in the NFL. The Bills have also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven of their last ten games dating back to Week 9. The Bills are a defense that is good enough to shut down below-average passing offenses as they shut down Bo Nix, Joe Milton, and Aaron Rodgers, but struggled mightily against Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Drake Maye. The issue for Buffalo is that while Christian Benford is a shut-down corner, the rest of the secondary has struggled in coverage this season. Rasul Douglas, opposite of Benford, has struggled compared to his 2023 season, and we’ve seen a significant decline in safety play as both Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp have been liabilities in coverage this year. In the team’s first meeting, Baltimore threw the ball just 18 times as Baltimore opened a significant lead early in a 35-10 victory.

Philadelphia vs Los Angeles Rams

The Eagles‘ passing offense has struggled down the final stretch of the season as Jalen Hurts has failed to top 200 passing yards in four of his last five games. Last week, the Eagles were once again content to just rely on their defense and running game as they threw the ball just 21 times. Excluding Week 18, where Hurts played just one series, he’s averaging just 22 pass attempts per game over his last ten games. Last week, A.J. Brown had just three targets, catching one pass for ten yards, as there just is not enough volume in this offense to consistently trust that Devonta Smith and Brown can both have success in this offense. As long as the Eagles continue to have a positive game script, nothing is going to change this week. In their first meeting, Hurts threw the ball just 22 times in a 37-20 victory as Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns.

The Rams’ secondary had their best performance of the season last week as they dominated the Vikings. Sam Darnold threw for 245 yards and a touchdown, but Darnold was sacked nine times as he never looked comfortable and could not consistently find open receivers downfield. This is a defense that has been inconsistent but, on the season, has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve really struggled with mobile quarterbacks throwing the ball as Kyler Murray (321 yards), Josh Allen (342 yards, 3 touchdowns), Drake Maye (282 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Geno Smith (363 yards, 3 touchdowns) all had massive games against this defense. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Eagles did not need to throw the ball as Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Jalen Hurts threw the ball just 22 times but did throw for 8.1 yards per attempt as he ended the game with 179 yards in that game. While the Rams’ secondary has exceeded expectations, this is still a unit that features two slot corners playing the outside, which has been a problem as they’ve allowed seven receivers to top 100 yards this season, including A.J. Brown, who had 109 yards and a touchdown. The Rams may be without Ahkello Witherspoon, who has been their best cornerback this week, as he did not practice with a thigh injury on Wednesday. If he’s unable to go, this would be a significant loss, as the drop-off to Cobie Durant is quite significant. A key matchup in this game could be if A.J. Brown found himself on Darious Williams, as Brown would have four inches and over 40 pounds on the smaller corner.

Bottom 3 Passing Matchups

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia

The Rams’ passing offense has struggled over the last four weeks as they can’t seem to find another option outside of Puka Nacua, who can consistently produce. Since Week 16, Matthew Stafford has been averaging just 167 passing yards per game, with a high of 209 yards, which we saw in last week’s win against the Vikings. Minnesota was able to shut down Nacua as he had a 27-yard completion to open the game, but he had just 17 yards for the rest of the game as the Vikings were unphased by any of the other targets on this Rams offense. Cooper Kupp’s production has fallen off of a cliff over these last four games, as he does not have more than three targets in a game and has not topped 30 yards in any game over this stretch. While he is not on the injury report, this is the type of thing that would not be surprising if he is playing through some sort of injury that has seen his production take such a downward spiral. If there is a player to keep an eye on, it is Tyler Higbee. Despite leaving last week’s game due to injury, Higbee saw five targets on his 12 snaps and led the team with 58 yards. Higbee looks like he’s going to be able to play this upcoming week as he is dealing with a chest injury, but if he is unable to go, Davis Allen could be a player who sees an influx of targets this week along with Colby Parkinson who will lead the team in snaps at the tight end position as he had 62% of snaps last week.

The Eagles have built as close to a perfect defense as you can build in 2024. While the team lost Nakobe Dean last week with a knee injury, we saw veteran Oren Burks slide right in and be serviceable as he started in both Weeks 17 and 18 with Dean out in those weeks before re-entering the lineup when Dean was injured in the playoff game. In the secondary, the Eagles have drafted as well as anyone in the NFL as they have found two long-term starters in 2024, first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell and second-round Cooper DeJean, who has excelled in the slot this season. Philadelphia is allowing the second-fewest passing yards this season and a league-leading 6.0 yards per attempt.

Detroit vs Washington

Detroit’s passing game heads into the postseason as one of the best units in the NFL. Jared Goff has thrown for 280 passing yards or more in four of his last five games while topping 300 in three of those five games, highlighted by a 494-yard performance against Buffalo back in Week 15. This offense is as dangerous as any offense in the NFL when it comes to pass-catching weapons, as they boast two elite wide receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and the emerging Jameson Williams while complimenting them with Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs, their first and second-round picks from the 2023 draft. The other Lions also have possibly the league’s best offensive line, led by tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, along with second-team All-Pro Frank Ragnow.

Washington’s secondary had the performance of the year last week as they held Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense to just 185 yards passing, which was the reason that they ultimately won this past week. Washington’s secondary has been featured most of the season as a top defense, as they allowed just 204 passing yards per game, which was the fourth-fewest passing yards. Dan Quinn has done a complete rebuild, taking this from one of the league’s worst pass defenses to one of the league’s best. Rookie Mike Sainristil has been one of the best young corners in the NFL. On the other side of Sainristil, Marshon Lattimore is finally healthy after the team traded for him earlier this season. Lattimore is no longer the lock-down cornerback that he was several years ago, but he’s getting healthier, which is a great sign for the cornerback who has missed a majority of the season with a hamstring injury. Lattimore was a full participant in practice all of last week and was again on Wednesday after missing Week 17 and 18, which is a great sign that he’s getting closer to 100% healthy as much as that is possible this late in the season.

Houston at Kansas City

C.J. Stroud had one of his best games of the season last week as he was able to lead the Texans to a comfortable home victory. Stroud threw for 282 yards, but what was most encouraging was that he threw for 8.5 yards per attempt, which was a number we had not seen from him since early October when both he and Nico Collins were looking like they were going to combine to be one of the league’s best offenses. The Texans are still looking for another wide receiver to step up besides Collins as he led the way with 122 yards and a touchdown, while Xavier Hutchinson was the only other receiver to top 30 yards as he did it on just one reception for 34 yards this past week. We also saw some mobility from Stroud, which is not something that we typically see as the quarterback ran for 42 yards this past week. If the Texans are able to get the Chiefs to have to worry about his mobility, this should open up additional passing opportunities this week.

Kansas City’s overall passing stats are largely skewed by two outlier performances. The Chiefs have allowed two 300-yard games, one of which was in Week 18 in a game when the Chiefs rested their starters, and the other game was a 340-yard performance to Aidan O’Connell, which is just difficult to comprehend for a defense that has been as good as the Chiefs have been this year. The Chiefs, outside of these two performances, have not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 275 passing yards this season despite having a 15-2 record that had them in pass-heavy game scripts for most of the season. This is a veteran unit that has some of the most cohesion in the NFL, as they have largely been able to keep this unit together over the last several seasons. Led by 2022 first-round Trent McDuffie, who was a second-team All-Pro, this is a young but talented group that the Chiefs built through the draft with Chamarri Conner and Jaylen Watson playing alongside McDuffie.