Week 18 Passing Matchups

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Offense

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville

Joe Flacco is expected to make the start in Week 18 for the Colts, as Anthony Richardson missed Thursday's practice for the Colts. With Flacco's future uncertain, this could be his final start in the NFL as he approaches 40 years old this month. Flacco was great last week in a losing effort as he threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants, while Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr had over 100 yards this week. While Pierce and Pittman were both great, Josh Downs struggled as he had just three receptions for 22 yards, which was the first game of the season that he did not top 60 yards with Flacco as quarterback. If there is a concern this week, it is how motivated the Colts are to play this game. After suffering a devastating loss last week to eliminate them from playoff contention, we've seen teams simply not show up the following week in past seasons.

While the Jaguars' passing defense has looked better lately, they've faced an easy schedule over the last four games, facing Mason Rudolph, Aidan O'Connell, Aaron Rodgers, and Will Levis. This defense allows 270 passing yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. In the first meeting against the Colts, Joe Flacco dominated as he threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns. This is a secondary that has struggled as they lack talent at the safety position, which has caused big plays to haunt this team all season. Eight wide receivers have topped 100 yards this season, and Andre Cisco and Darnell Savage have been amongst the worst duos in the NFL this season. Alec Pierce had 134 yards on just three receptions in the first meeting between these two teams.

Minnesota at Detroit

Sam Darnold has shown another level to his game after a 377-yard three-touchdown performance to lead the Vikings to a 27-25 victory against the Packers. Darnold now has three 300-yard performances over his last six games. (He did not have a single 300-yard performance in his first ten games of the season.) The Vikings' offense is difficult to defend, especially if Jalen Nailor can contribute, as we saw last week. Nailor had five receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. Nailor consistently has been on the field for 40-50% of snaps for most of the season but has largely been a non-factor as most of the targets have gone to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. We have seen Justin Jefferson see an increase in targets as he has at least 11 targets over the last three games, and Jefferson had ten or more targets just once in the first 13 games.

Detroit's secondary is the weakness of this team. The team has been unable to recover from Carlton Davis' injury suffered in Week 15. Over the last three games, the Lions have allowed 369 passing yards per game and 190 yards to opposing wide receivers, both numbers lead the NFL. The big issue for the Lions is that first-round rookie Terrion Arnold is struggling, as he's been one of the worst corners in the NFL. With Davis' injury, the Lions have been forced to move Amik Robertson from the slot to the outside while moving Brian Branch down to the slot. Branch has been a solid slot corner throughout his NFL career, but moving Robertson to the outside, Arnold's struggle, and a brand new safety have had significant consequences.

Atlanta vs Carolina

Michael Penix Jr. has been serviceable but has yet to provide the spark that the Falcons hoped for when they moved from Kirk Cousins to the rookie. In Penix's two starts this year, he's yet to top 225 yards while throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. Drake London has been a focal point for Penix, as he had 13 targets last week, catching seven of those passes for 106 yards last week. Meanwhile, we've yet to see Bijan Robinson have much of a role in the receiving game with Penix, as he had just three receptions for eight yards last week after having just two receptions for nine yards in Week 16. In a must-win game for Atlanta, they need to find a way to get a consistent secondary option for Penix, as Darnell Mooney struggled last week.

Carolina's pass defense is a completely different unit without Jaycee Horn, who missed last week and is not expected to play in Week 18 after missing the first two practices. Last week, Baker Mayfield tore apart this defense as he completed 27 of 32 passes for 359 yards and five touchdowns. Without Horn, you have 2021 first-round pick Caleb Farley forced into a significant role. Farley has been among the most disappointing first-round picks in recent years. This player had a first-round pedigree, yet no one signed him even to a practice squad from August 27 until October 2^, when the Panthers signed him to the practice squad. The Panthers are also without Chau Smith-Wade, who had already filled in for Troy Hill out of the slot, which will force Dane Jackson to start in the slot. Jackson has been one of the worst slot corners in football this season. The Panthers are tied for the second-fewest sacks of the season, so combining a bad pass rush with a depleted secondary makes for a very exploitable secondary.

Washington at Dallas

Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense have been a high-floor, low-upside offense as Daniels has thrown for over 200 yards in 13 of his last 14 games but has thrown for over 250 yards just five times this season. The good news coming out of last week's 227-yard three-touchdown performance from Daniels is that they may have found a second receiving option in Olamide Zaccheaus. With Terry McLaurin locked up by A.J. Terrell Jr., the Commanders again turned to Zaccheaus, who now has 70 yards or more in each of his last two games after doing it just once in his first 14 games this season. If the Commanders can continue to have a secondary option for Daniels and have Zach Ertz as a possession third option, this would be an improvement we have not seen for most of the season.

Dallas' secondary has been an issue over the second half of the season. This team is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2024 since Week 9, as they're allowing almost a full point more than the next closest defense. While DaRon Bland has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL over the last two seasons, the opposite corner has been an issue for Dallas since Trevon Diggs went down with injury. Since Diggs went out, the Cowboys also lost Josh Butler and Amani Oruwariye, as both players were placed on IR. They've had to turn to the 2022 Vikings second-round pick, Andrew Booth Jr, who the Cowboys traded for in August. If you've been following this article for multiple seasons, you've known that the Vikings have continually had one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL, so if they're giving away a second-round pick, it's largely because the guy is not an NFL quality player. That is exactly what we saw in his first start last week. The one bright spot for the Cowboys has been the pass rush. Despite the Cowboys losing DeMarcus Lawrence back in Week 4, the Cowboys still have 47 sacks in the year, the fifth-highest in the NFL this season.