Week 15 Passing Matchups

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

New York Jets vs Jacksonville

Aaron Rodgers may be 40 years old, but his Week 14 performance suggests he still has some gas left in the tank. Last Sunday, Rodgers recorded his first 300-yard game in nearly three years, completing 27 of 39 passes for 339 yards and a touchdown. Importantly, this output came entirely in regulation, as the Jets never possessed the ball in overtime. This impressive outing could signal a potential late-season resurgence as Rodgers evaluates his 2025 plans. The veteran quarterback appears to be building a strong rapport with Garrett Wilson, who has consistently showcased his versatility and downfield ability. Wilson has seamlessly coexisted with Davante Adams, averaging 6 catches for 68 yards in their seven games together, compared to Adams’ 6 for 65. Wilson, however, has demonstrated greater week-to-week upside, creating mismatches across the formation and topping seven receptions in four games this season—three of those with Adams in the lineup. This burgeoning chemistry bodes well for the Jets’ passing attack.

The Jacksonville pass defense remains one of the NFL’s weakest units despite a solid Week 14 showing against Will Levis. Even after that game, the Jaguars rank 31st in passing yards allowed and dead last in yards per attempt. Their struggles have been consistent throughout the season, as evidenced by recent outings against Jared Goff and Lions backup Hendon Hooker (449 yards and 4 touchdowns combined), as well as midseason performances from rookies Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Even Joe Flacco had a standout performance against them, further underscoring this unit’s deficiencies. Young cornerbacks Tyson Campbell and Jarrian Jones show promise but lack the necessary support from a porous secondary and a lackluster pass rush. Jacksonville’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league in quarterback pressures, making life even harder on an already struggling secondary. Without significant upgrades, it’s difficult to see this unit containing a reinvigorated Rodgers and a surging Jets passing attack. Garrett Wilson, in particular, looks primed to exploit the Jaguars’ vulnerabilities and could be in for a monster outing.

Minnesota vs Chicago

Sam Darnold appears to have shaken off his midseason struggles and is now operating at a high level for the Vikings. Over the last four games, Darnold has completed 68% of his passes while averaging 9.3 yards per attempt, throwing 11 touchdowns without an interception. He’s increasingly becoming a dynamic playmaker for the offense, maximizing the talent around him. Justin Jefferson has remained a key focal point, tallying 22 receptions for 339 yards and two touchdowns in this span. Meanwhile, Jordan Addison has emerged as an explosive complement, posting 23 catches for 430 yards and five scores. Tight end T.J. Hockenson has been less involved as Darnold looks downfield for big plays, a trend that bodes well against Chicago’s porous secondary.

The Bears’ once-promising pass defense has unraveled as the season has progressed. Over their last four games, they’ve surrendered an average of 288 passing yards at a staggering 10.4 yards per attempt. The unit looked particularly disorganized in last week’s blowout loss to the 49ers, as Brock Purdy exploited repeated failed blitzes to hit on 10 completions of 15+ yards. Defensive lapses have become commonplace, with issues stemming from Tyrique Stevenson’s regression and the lingering impact of losing safety Jaquan Brisker earlier in the season. Even the otherwise strong play of cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon hasn’t been enough to stabilize the group. With the Bears’ defense in flux and the Vikings clicking offensively, this matchup sets up as another favorable opportunity for Darnold to continue his hot streak. Chicago’s inability to prevent explosive plays makes them an ideal target for the Vikings’ vertical attack. Both Jefferson and Addison are positioned for strong outings, with Darnold leading the charge against a defense that’s struggling to find its footing. Until the Bears can solidify their scheme and execution, they’ll remain vulnerable to productive quarterbacks like Darnold.

Washington at New Orleans

Jayden Daniels appears to have rediscovered his early-season efficiency, bouncing back in Week 14 with a stellar outing. Daniels completed 25 of 30 passes for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns, steering Washington to a dominant 35-13 lead before the offense eased off. While his production has cooled somewhat from a scorching start to the season, Daniels remains one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, ranking top-10 in both success rate and yardage rate. This offense thrives on control and precision, strategically picking moments to attack downfield. Despite ranking 22nd in downfield throw frequency, Daniels ranks 12th in completed air yards, underscoring his ability to maximize opportunities when they arise. Terry McLaurin continues to be Daniels’ favorite target, commanding 22% of team targets and posting an impressive 10.9 yards per target, a mark comparable to Justin Jefferson’s. Alongside McLaurin, veteran tight end Zach Ertz provides reliable volume as a dependable option in the middle of the field. In this week’s matchup against a struggling Saints secondary, both McLaurin and Ertz should see an uptick in ceiling potential, making them valuable assets in any offensive game plan.

The New Orleans pass defense, once a cornerstone under Dennis Allen, has fallen apart in 2024. Following Allen’s departure and the trade of former All-Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore in October, the unit has been in disarray. Rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry has shown flashes but remains inconsistent, and the loss of Paulson Adebo for the season has further stripped the secondary of its depth and quality. The safeties have provided little support, leaving the Saints unable to replicate the aggressive schemes that defined Allen’s tenure. While New Orleans benefited from facing the struggling Giants in Week 14, the broader picture remains grim. They’ve allowed 275+ passing yards in 7 of 13 games this season, making them one of the league’s more generous matchups for opposing quarterbacks. Given Daniels’ resurgence and the Saints’ defensive vulnerabilities, this shapes up as one of the most favorable matchups for the Washington offense this season. McLaurin, Daniels, and Ertz are all poised to capitalize against this ailing secondary.

Chicago at Minnesota

Caleb Williams has shown clear signs of improvement throughout the 2024 season, even if it hasn’t translated to wins for the Bears. Williams has developed the ability to create plays under any game script, trading touchdowns in shootouts and staying poised in close games. This growth was on display in Week 12, when he completed 32 of 47 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota, nearly leading his team to an upset victory. He followed that performance with another strong outing, throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns the next week. Notably, Williams hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, a testament to his growing confidence and decision-making. A big part of Williams’ success has been his trust in his talented receiving corps. Rome Odunze has emerged as a key downfield threat, drawing 22% of targets over the last four weeks and becoming a staple in red-zone plays. Odunze’s ability to high-point contested balls has been crucial, as evidenced by his two touchdown grabs last week. Meanwhile, D.J. Moore continues to provide reliable underneath production, complementing Odunze’s big-play potential. With a diverse arsenal of weapons, Williams is well-positioned to exploit matchups like this one, especially considering his recent success against Minnesota.

The Vikings’ pass defense, while generally solid, has been struggling. Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, they operate a bend-don’t-break scheme that has given up the league’s third-most passing yards. This is partly due to game flow, as Minnesota’s 11-2 record often forces opponents into pass-heavy scripts. However, it also stems from a secondary that struggles to handle the team’s high blitz rate. The Vikings blitz more than any other team, frequently leaving their defensive backs in one-on-one situations. Injuries have exacerbated these issues, with top cornerback Stephon Gilmore potentially sidelined. Replacement corners Shaq Griffin and Fabian Moreau have struggled, particularly Griffin, who was torched in Week 14. Additionally, safety Harrison Smith has lost a step, further exposing the secondary.

Tennessee vs Cincinnati

Will Levis may not be Tennessee’s long-term solution at quarterback, but he’s shown enough incremental progress to warrant attention, especially in favorable matchups like this one. Most offenses find success against the Bengals’ porous defense, and Levis should enjoy a boost this week as a result. When called upon in shootouts earlier this season, Levis delivered, throwing for 295 yards on just 31 attempts against the Vikings and following that with 278 yards and a win over the Texans. While his last two performances have been shakier, a home game against Cincinnati’s reeling defense could help him bounce back. Levis has leaned heavily on Calvin Ridley since the Titans traded DeAndre Hopkins. Ridley has commanded a commanding 30% target share since the deal and averaged 79 yards per game over that span. The former Falcon hasn’t dipped below 40 yards in a game since Week 6, solidifying his role as Tennessee’s top receiving option. Meanwhile, Nick Westbrook-Ikhene provides big-play ability as the team’s primary deep threat, boasting 48+ yards in four of his last six outings and a team-high eight touchdowns this season.

Cincinnati’s defense has been a glaring issue, undoing much of the good work done by Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense earlier this season. The unit ranks seventh-worst in the league, surrendering 246 passing yards per game, and has been particularly vulnerable over the past month. Russell Wilson and the Steelers torched the Bengals for 414 yards and three touchdowns just two weeks ago, following dominant performances by Lamar Jackson (290 yards, four touchdowns) and Justin Herbert (297 yards, two touchdowns). The Bengals’ secondary is a shadow of its former self, having lost key contributors like Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell in recent years. Only Cam Taylor-Britt and Mike Hilton remain as capable starters, while players like Josh Newton have struggled in expanded roles. The lack of a consistent pass rush exacerbates these issues; despite Trey Hendrickson’s stellar season (league-leading 12.5 sacks), no other Bengal has recorded more than three sacks. The result is a defense that’s often overmatched, making it a prime target for a rejuvenated Levis and his playmakers.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia

Russell Wilson has revitalized the Steelers’ offense, consistently providing big plays that have driven their Super Bowl aspirations. Despite some inconsistencies, Wilson has thrown for over 260 yards in four of his last six starts, with a standout performance of 414 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals. George Pickens remains his go-to target, commanding a 28% target share and crossing the 74-yard mark in five of his last six games. However, the supporting cast lacks reliability, with Calvin Austin III flashing potential but struggling to sustain production—he’s topped 75 yards only twice all season. This week, the Steelers face their toughest passing test yet against the Eagles’ elite secondary, which is well-equipped to neutralize Pickens and Wilson’s deep-ball tendencies. Without significant secondary options, Pittsburgh may struggle to sustain its downfield attack.

The Eagles’ defense has been dominant during their nine-game win streak, allowing an NFL-best 5.6 yards per throw and just 178 passing yards per game. This streak includes matchups against high-profile quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Lamar Jackson, none of whom reached 250 yards. Unlike their blitz-heavy approach in previous seasons, the Eagles now rely on exceptional secondary play. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have emerged as immediate All-Pro candidates, excelling in both man and zone coverage. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson continues to be a stabilizing force, providing exceptional deep help. This unit is disciplined, prioritizing tight coverage and elite tackling to prevent short completions from turning into explosive plays. The Eagles’ strategy of sitting back in coverage and daring opponents to win with precision throws plays directly against Wilson’s strengths. While Wilson has thrived on big plays during this run, the Eagles’ secondary doesn’t allow much space for improvisation or deep strikes. Pickens will face close attention, leaving Wilson reliant on shorter, timing-based throws—an area where the Steelers’ offense hasn’t consistently excelled. This matchup presents a significant challenge for Pittsburgh, as the Eagles’ cohesive and disciplined defense is built to stifle the exact elements that have driven Wilson’s recent success.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco

Matthew Stafford has been red-hot lately, positioning himself as one of the NFL’s more efficient quarterbacks heading into the postseason push. That said, expectations for Week 14 may need to be tempered against a resurgent 49ers defense. While Stafford thrives in the Rams’ quick-hitting offense, designed to maximize the short-area skills of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, this week’s matchup is less forgiving. Stafford, who ranks 20th in air yards per attempt, doesn’t push the ball downfield often, and the 49ers’ swarming front-seven minimizes those short windows. When these teams last met in Week 3, the 49ers blitzed Stafford heavily, successfully neutralizing his ability to create big plays. Nacua and Kupp remain reliable fantasy options, but their ceilings may be capped this week by the pace and style of play San Francisco forces.

The 49ers’ pass defense has hit its stride at just the right time. Over the past three weeks, this unit has allowed nearly 100 fewer passing yards than the NFL’s next-best defense, a testament to both its health and depth. Cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, along with All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga, have returned from injury, bolstering what was already a formidable group. Depth players like Rock Ya-Sin and Isaac Yiadom could start on many rosters, giving San Francisco unmatched versatility in coverage. Linebacker Fred Warner looks fully healthy and continues to play at an elite level, erasing underneath routes and punishing intermediate throws. The 49ers may get Nick Bosa back this week which would be a significant improvement as they look to get healthier throughout the remainder of the season. However, the cornerstone remains Ward, who has overcome personal adversity to reestablish himself as a shutdown force on the left side. Together with Lenoir, Ward forms one of the league’s most effective man-coverage duos, holding opposing wideouts to just 6.3 yards per target over the last three games. Last week, the 49ers saw Talanoa Hufanga return at safety which is a significant upgrade over Ji’Ayir Brown as Hufanga was a First-Team All-Pro in 2022 before injuries have decimated his 2023 and 2024 seasons. This defensive strength will make it challenging for Stafford to lean on his usual playmakers and force the Rams to find alternative ways to stay competitive in this divisional matchup.

New Orleans vs Washington

The Saints’ season has been disappointing at 5-8 on the year, but the bigger concern is that their quarterback situation has likely ended any hope of pulling off a magical run to finish the year 9-8 and potentially sneak into the playoffs in a bad NFC South. Derek Carr’s Week 14 hand injury appears to have ended his season, capping another uninspiring year for New Orleans’ offense. Rookie Spencer Rattler will now take over an air attack that has struggled mightily, ranking 19th in yardage rate and near the bottom of the league in efficiency metrics like touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks. Rattler’s earlier three-start stint was far from encouraging, ranking 31st among quarterbacks during that span. The Saints' stripped-down receiving corps doesn’t provide much hope, either. Last week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team with just 51 yards on 7 targets, while Kevin Austin Jr. managed only 5 yards on 5 targets. Alvin Kamara’s role in the passing game may expand significantly, and tight end Juwan Johnson showed signs of life with 50 yards and a touchdown last week. However, this is a unit severely lacking in talent and upside, making it difficult to project anything other than struggles against even middling defenses.

On the other side of the matchup, Washington’s defense is no longer a liability, thanks to first-year coach Dan Quinn. After inheriting one of the league’s worst secondaries (31st in passing yards allowed last season), Quinn has orchestrated an impressive turnaround, with his unit now ranking 4th at just 205 yards allowed per game. The improvement comes from an aggressive, pressure-heavy scheme designed to make life easier for the secondary, along with a leadership team that is not afraid to do what is best for the team as they cut their 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes Jr. earlier this season. Rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil has exceeded expectations with an up-and-down debut season but has shown significant growth on the boundary. The potential return of Marshon Lattimore could be a game-changer for Washington’s defense. Lattimore, acquired via trade and now healthy, is poised to make his Washington debut this week. Before his injury, he was among the league’s premier shutdown corners, and his addition represents a significant upgrade over Noah Igbinoghene.

Tampa Bay at LA Chargers

Baker Mayfield continues to embody a gunslinger mentality in Tampa Bay, leading the league’s 7th-most pass attempts and posting seven 275+ yard games this season. Despite injuries to his knee and Achilles on the same leg, he’s managing to deliver Herculean performances, albeit inconsistently. Over his last three games against weaker defenses like the Raiders, Giants, and Falcons, Mayfield has averaged 306 passing yards at an impressive 8.4 yards per attempt. However, against sturdier defenses like the 49ers and Panthers, he has struggled, averaging just 184 yards and 5.9 yards per throw. Mayfield’s supporting cast, including Mike Evans, rookie Jalen McMillan, and breakout tight end Cade Otton, keeps this offense dangerous, capable of explosive plays. Yet, while a game script allowing him to air it out could result in a 350-yard, multi-touchdown performance, it’s hard to confidently project that level of success against a unit like the Chargers.

Under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers’ defense has been completely revitalized, leaping from mediocrity to dominance in 2024. They currently rank 4th in net yardage rate, allowing only the Eagles and Texans fewer yards per throw. No quarterback outside of Joe Burrow has topped 260 passing yards against this group, including Patrick Mahomes II, who was held to just 5.7 yards per attempt and sacked three times last week. The Chargers excel at applying timely pressure with their versatile pass rush, racking up 39 sacks this season. Their secondary, anchored by rookie cornerbacks Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart, has developed into one of the league’s most effective. Kristian Fulton and All-Pro safety Derwin James Jr.. add depth and versatility, with James playing a career-high 91% of the team’s defensive snaps. This unit thrives on a mix of innovative schemes and emerging talent, making it one of the toughest matchups in the league for opposing passers. Mayfield’s fantasy success will likely depend on sheer volume rather than efficiency, as this Chargers defense is well-equipped to capitalize on his aggressive tendencies.

Dallas at Carolina

Cooper Rush has filled in admirably for the injured Dak Prescott, but his limitations are evident, particularly in the efficiency of the Cowboys’ passing game. Under Rush, the offense has fallen to just 5.5 yards per throw, dead last in the NFL, compared to 6.9 under Prescott (21st). While Rush has shown the ability to keep the team competitive, his skill set doesn't lend itself to explosive or dynamic passing. CeeDee Lamb remains the centerpiece of the attack, earning 24% of the team’s targets. However, Lamb’s production has been inconsistent—he has topped 90 yards three times in the past seven games but has been held under 50 in three others. The offense has largely abandoned attempts to stretch the field, as evidenced by Brandin Cooks’ lack of impact (just 19 yards on 10 targets last week). Tight end Jake Ferguson has also struggled to contribute meaningfully, surpassing 35 yards only once in the last six games.

The Cowboys now face an emerging challenge in the Carolina Panthers’ defense, which has made substantial improvements as the season has progressed. After a shaky start, including a disastrous performance against Bo Nix in Week 8, the Panthers have tightened up, particularly against mid-tier quarterbacks like Rush. Over the last three weeks, they’ve registered a league-high 13 sacks while significantly limiting chunk plays. Their ability to disrupt opposing passers with consistent pressure has been a key driver of this turnaround. Cornerback Jaycee Horn has been a revelation, playing nearly every defensive snap this season and continuing to develop into a franchise-caliber talent. While Horn doesn’t typically shadow opposing top receivers, it’s likely the Panthers will deploy him against Lamb in key situations. Without Prescott’s deep-ball capability, the Cowboys’ offense lacks complementary weapons to take advantage of other matchups, leaving Rush heavily reliant on short and intermediate throws. Against Carolina’s disciplined secondary and potent pass rush, this shapes up as a tough matchup for the Dallas passing game, with their offensive upside significantly capped.