Week 14 Passing Matchups

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

Tennessee vs Jacksonville

Will Levis is showing steady improvement as the Titans' starting quarterback, balancing average performances with moments of brilliance. His last four games have included two outings with passer ratings above 120 (127.4 and 123.3), showcasing his ability to deliver downfield strikes. Even his lower-rated games (84.7 and 84.5) reflect a significant step up from his early-season struggles. Levis' knack for hitting deep passes off play action is becoming a hallmark of his game, with recent touchdown throws of 98, 38, 70, and 27 yards. Heading into a matchup with Jacksonville's porous pass defense, Levis is positioned for a potential season-best performance. While Calvin Ridley is still considered the top wideout, Nick Westbrook-Ikhene has emerged as a dynamic red-zone threat, scoring eight touchdowns over the last eight games. With a 19% target share in his last four games, Westbrook-Ikhene is proving a reliable option in this offense.

The Jaguars' pass defense has descended to the bottom of the league, allowing an average of 286 yards per game through the air. It's hard to imagine how much worse these numbers could look if not for garbage-time scenarios suppressing opponents' volume. In a Week 11 loss to Detroit, Jared Goff and Hendon Hooker combined for a staggering 449 yards and four touchdowns on just 33 pass attempts while building a commanding lead. Jacksonville's defensive struggles stem from issues across the board, from coaching deficiencies to a lack of cohesion among their young players. While the pass rush has slightly improved, it remains a non-factor, ranking 31st in the league in pressure rate. In the secondary, Tyson Campbell and Jarrion Jones are promising young cornerbacks but have struggled to elevate a unit that is badly in need of reinforcements. Veteran Ronald Darby has been ineffective, further exposing a defense that gets little help from its safeties. Andre Cisco excels in run support but lacks impact in deep coverage, while Darnell Savage has been a liability when working in the slot. Tight ends have also repeatedly exploited Jacksonville, with six players topping 50 receiving yards over the last six games. Against this backdrop, Levis and the Titans' passing game have a prime opportunity to exploit the Jaguars' vulnerabilities, particularly with Westbrook-Ikhene and Tennessee's tight ends looking like major threats in this matchup.

Las Vegas at Tampa Bay

Aidan O'Connell seems to be finding his groove in his audition as the Raiders' long-term quarterback. Fresh off his best performance as a pro, O'Connell completed 23 of 35 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns against a strong Chiefs defense. It's possible that the month sidelined by injury offered time for reflection and growth. Most notably, O'Connell has demonstrated the wisdom to lean heavily on Brock Bowers, who has solidified himself as the Raiders' offensive centerpiece. Bowers leads the league with 84 receptions, including a commanding 34% target share over the last three weeks. His production leaves no doubt that he's the face of this offense, consistently dominating in the short and intermediate areas. Jakobi Meyers has also thrived in this possession role, posting 16 catches for 218 yards across the past two games. Both Bowers and Meyers should see heavy usage down the stretch, especially in favorable matchups like this week's clash with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's defense has struggled mightily underneath, particularly against tight ends, setting up Bowers for another big game.

The Buccaneers' pass defense has been a consistent liability, ranking 30th in yardage allowed. Their secondary functions as a "funnel" unit, with solid boundary cornerbacks forcing action over the middle, where they're often outmatched. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is a versatile playmaker but doesn't provide the deep help this unit desperately needs. Speedy receivers like Darnell Mooney and Rashod Bateman have routinely exploited coverage lapses downfield, while tight ends have been particularly productive against this group. Over the last eight games, six tight ends have eclipsed 50 receiving yards, including Carolina's Tommy Tremble, who posted 5 catches for 77 yards last week. Tampa Bay's struggles were on full display against the Panthers in Week 13, when Bryce Young threw for 298 yards and nearly orchestrated an upset. Young consistently moved the chains with his mobility and short-area accuracy, while Adam Thielen torched the Buccaneers for 8 catches, 99 yards, and a touchdown. The prospect of facing Bowers, arguably the league's most dynamic tight end, must be daunting for this unit. O'Connell's growing rapport with Bowers and Meyers should make it easy for the Raiders to exploit the soft middle of this defense, setting the stage for a productive day through the air.

Dallas vs Cincinnati

Dallas' air attack enters Week 14 battered, with Dak Prescott on IR and CeeDee Lamb uncertain to play. However, these injuries aren't likely to shift the Cowboys away from their pass-heavy tendencies, especially with a favorable matchup on tap. Cooper Rush has shown a willingness to air it out, evidenced by his Thanksgiving performance where he continued throwing at a high clip even after Lamb exited with a shoulder injury. Over the past three weeks, Dallas has maintained the league's 12th-highest dropback rate, a trend that should continue regardless of who takes the field. Lamb, the unquestioned alpha of this offense with a 28% target share, has consistently produced when healthy. He's surpassed 60 receiving yards in 9 of 11 full games this season and will likely suit up despite the shoulder sprain, given his track record of playing through injuries. Should Lamb be limited or unavailable, KaVontae Turpin could see an increased role. The speedster was targeted five times on Thanksgiving, offering a more efficient alternative to Brandin Cooks, who struggled mightily, turning seven targets into just 16 yards last week. Regardless of the personnel, Dallas' passing attack benefits greatly from facing one of the league's most exploitable secondaries.

The Bengals' pass defense has been a significant liability in 2024, contributing to the derailment of what was otherwise shaping up to be a stellar season for Joe Burrow. Following a softer midseason slate of quarterbacks, this unit has been shredded over the last three weeks. Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert combined for over 580 yards and six touchdowns, and Russell Wilson torched them last week for a season-high 414 yards and three scores. This secondary, aside from reliable slot corner Mike Hilton, is struggling mightily. New Week 13 starters Josh Newton and Jordan Battle were exposed by the Steelers, with George Pickens making easy work of the downfield coverage. The issues extend beyond just wideouts, as tight ends have also found success against this group. Six tight ends have surpassed 55 receiving yards in the past eight games, including season-best performances from Pat Freiermuth (68 yards, 1 touchdown) and Charlie Kolar (64 yards, 1 touchdown). Once a strength of the team, the Bengals' secondary is now a glaring weakness, offering a prime opportunity for the Cowboys to move the ball through the air, even with backup players at key positions.