Week 11 Passing Matchups

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

Pittsburgh vs Baltimore

Russell Wilson hasn't reached elite status among AFC quarterbacks, but his willingness to push the ball downfield gives Pittsburgh's offense a higher weekly ceiling—especially in a favorable matchup like this one. Wilson has yet to throw 30 passes in a game this season, but his 14.7 yards per completion leads all quarterbacks with at least 75 attempts, showcasing his ability to create big plays. The Steelers' offense is streamlined, with targets focused mainly on a few players. George Pickens, for instance, commands a massive 28% target share, while no other receiver has seen more than 15%. Although this hasn't resulted in massive volume for Pickens, his splash-play ability has kept him productive, with five games over 70 yards. Always a threat to break open a play, Pickens is a valuable asset in fantasy, just a play away from tilting a matchup in his favor.

Meanwhile, the Ravens' pass defense has been a surprising weak spot this season, ranking dead last across the league. Six of their nine opponents have passed for over 275 yards, with four of those topping 325. Notably, two of the teams that failed to hit 275 yards were held back more by game flow than by defensive strength. This puts a lot of pressure on Lamar Jackson to compensate for defensive deficiencies, as the Ravens have struggled to contain big plays downfield. Although Marlon Humphrey has held his own on one side, Brandon Stephens has had a tough season, allowing opposing receivers too much room to operate. Safety help has been lacking, even when All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton is on the field, as both he and Marcus Williams have struggled in coverage and tackling in 2024. These issues were on full display in a recent game against Cincinnati, where Ja'Marr Chase racked up 264 yards, including a 67-yard touchdown. On that play, Chase broke through a cluster of six Ravens defenders with just one blocker in front, exposing tackling and angle issues across the unit. Chase's performance made him the ninth player this season to hit 95 or more yards against the Ravens. Until they can address these coverage and tackling deficiencies, Baltimore's pass defense remains an enticing target for fantasy managers. With Kyle Hamilton looking like he might miss this week, that would put the Ravens in an even more difficult spot this week. With Wilson's deep-passing efficiency and Pickens' big-play potential, the Steelers are well-positioned to exploit a Ravens defense that has been unable to contain explosive passing attacks.

NY Jets vs Indianapolis

Few have faith in the Jets right now as they sit at 3-7, and Aaron Rodgers has shown his age this season. Still, despite their struggles, the Jets have undeniable talent on offense, and their Week 11 matchup against the Colts could be exactly what they need. Rodgers, who has been vulnerable behind a weak offensive line, should benefit from the Colts' middling pass rush, giving him more time to connect with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson in the Colts' soft zone coverage. Adams, reacclimated to the Jets' offense, is stepping into an even bigger role with Allen Lazard sidelined, and he and Wilson combined for 58% of Rodgers' targets last week.

The Colts' pass defense has struggled significantly, ranking 26th in the league with 254 passing yards allowed per game. That number might be even worse had they not faced backup quarterbacks like Will Levis, Tyler Huntley, and Malik Willis. Against stronger quarterbacks, the Colts' secondary has frequently allowed big games, surrendering over 280 passing yards in six of their seven other matchups. Notably, they've allowed several wide receivers to post season-best performances, including stars like Justin Jefferson and George Pickens, but also lesser-known players like Christian Kirk, Mack Hollins, and even tight ends like Cole Kmet and Josh Oliver. The primary issue for Indianapolis is a lack of consistency and depth in the secondary. While slot corner Kenny Moore II has performed well, the boundary corners have left large gaps for wideouts to exploit. The Colts have some promising young talent at cornerback, but they lack the depth to keep up with skilled receivers. Additionally, the safeties provide minimal support over the top, which has allowed receivers to find space deep downfield. This weakness plays into the hands of Wilson and Adams, two wideouts capable of breaking open the game if given room to operate.

New England vs LA Rams

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has sparked excitement in New England with a promising start, refreshing a position that's long struggled with consistency. The Patriots have cycled through quarterbacks like Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Jacoby Brissett, and late-era Cam Newton in recent years, but Maye is proving to be a different breed. Though not flawless, his mobility and arm strength offer real playmaking potential, providing a notable upgrade to a previously stagnant offense. For fantasy, this means an elevated baseline for New England's underperforming pass-catchers. While no Patriots receiver is on track to hit 750 yards this season, there's hope for Kayshon Boutte, who has taken on a larger role recently, earning a 20% target share over the last three games. His increasing involvement could diminish the snaps of slot receiver Demario Douglas, whose 6.7 yards per target has limited the offense.

The Rams' pass defense, ranked 25th overall, has been even more vulnerable on a per-attempt basis, sitting tied for 31st with the Jaguars. This unit has struggled due to both a talent shortage and a lack of depth, with no immediate reinforcements in sight. Their early-season bet on veteran Tre'Davious White fell through, leaving a thin secondary that has been exploited all season. The Rams rely heavily on Darious Williams and Cobie Durant as their every-down cornerbacks, but both have struggled in 2024. Safety Quentin Lake, who plays every down, has provided minimal assistance downfield or across the middle, leaving ample space for opposing receivers. These issues have been evident in their recent matchups, where top receivers have repeatedly put up big numbers. In Week 9, Jaxon Smith-Njigba torched them for seven catches, 180 yards, and two touchdowns, winning on all levels of the field. Earlier games saw similar performances from elite wideouts like Justin Jefferson (8 for 115), Jauan Jennings (11 for 175 and 3), Marvin Harrison Jr. (4 for 130 and 2), and Jameson Williams (5 for 121 and 1). With this trend, the Rams' secondary presents a favorable matchup for Maye and the Patriots' receivers, especially if Boutte's role continues to grow. Maye's ability to spread the field and take advantage of weak coverage could yield opportunities for big plays this week.

Houston at Dallas

C.J. Stroud has struggled to make a fantasy impact in 2024, but Week 11 offers a promising opportunity for a rebound. The matchup against Dallas is favorable, and playing on the road just four hours from home minimizes travel fatigue. Stroud also gets a significant boost with the return of top wideout Nico Collins, who has missed the last 5.5 games. Without Collins, Stroud's completion rate dropped to 59%, with his yards per attempt falling to 6.9. Collins has been effective all season against tight coverage, and the Cowboys' depleted secondary lacks the personnel to contain him. Collins' return also benefits Tank Dell, who thrives as a complementary receiver, especially when he can capitalize on coverage shifted toward Collins rather than operating as the primary target. With Dell exploiting space downfield, Stroud could find more success targeting both receivers.

The Cowboys' defense has faltered recently, contributing to a disappointing season. Their games have followed a pattern: opposing quarterbacks carve up the Dallas secondary for two to three quarters, then ease up with a comfortable lead. Over their last four games, the Cowboys have allowed quarterbacks to complete 73% of passes at an average of 10.5 yards per throw, with eight touchdowns and just one interception. Though Micah Parsons' return in Week 10 bolstered the pass rush, even Parsons can only do so much. Dallas pressures quarterbacks at the league's second-highest rate, but they rely heavily on blitzing to achieve it. This strategy puts immense pressure on a secondary significantly weakened from its 2023 form. The Cowboys' cornerback Trevon Diggs has had a rough year, posting career-low performances, while DaRon Bland has yet to play this season. For their aggressive scheme to work, Diggs would need to return to his top form, handling single coverage effectively. Safety help is also thin, as Donovan Wilson has struggled in coverage assignments, leaving the Dallas defense vulnerable to downfield plays. Given these challenges, the Cowboys may find it difficult to contain both Collins and Dell, giving Stroud a rare opportunity to maximize his efficiency and fantasy value. This matchup could mark a turning point for Stroud, especially if he can exploit the Cowboys' weak secondary with Collins back in action.