Week 6 Passing Matchups

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

Chicago vs Jacksonville

Caleb Williams delivered his most impressive game as a professional quarterback in his recent performance, completing 20 of 29 passes for an average of 10.5 yards per attempt and throwing two touchdowns. His ability to avoid sacks has been a key asset; he took just one sack in Week 5, highlighting his quick release and decisiveness in the pocket. The chemistry Williams has developed with D.J. Moore has been evident, with Moore commanding 26% of Williams' targets. Moore's standout performance against the Panthers, where he recorded 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns, signals that he could be headed for a breakout as the season progresses. Moore's contributions, combined with rookie Rome Odunze's growing involvement—catching 5 of his 6 targets in Week 5—show that Williams is starting to distribute the ball more effectively. Odunze, who exploded in Week 3, continues to trend upward, and his ceiling looks higher as he integrates more into the offense. Keenan Allen remains a reliable option but might not match the upside of the younger talents in this receiving corps.

On the other side, Jacksonville's defense continues to struggle mightily against the pass. They've already allowed three quarterbacks to throw for over 330 yards this season. While they limited Deshaun Watson to a lesser performance, they have also faced Josh Allen, who threw for four touchdowns before being pulled. Most recently, the Jaguars allowed Joe Flacco and the Colts to pass for 359 yards and three touchdowns. The absence of Tyson Campbell is glaring, as the Jaguars lack a true shutdown corner to limit opposing passing games. Ronald Darby, though a veteran, has made notable errors, including a poorly played reception against Alec Pierce. Montaric Brown continues to be a target on the other side, while safeties Andre Cisco and Darnell Savage, who are more proficient in run support, have been less effective in coverage. Rookie cornerback Jarrian Jones has shown some potential, but he remains a bit player, and the Jaguars' defense struggles to handle dynamic passing attacks like Williams and his weapons.

Tennessee vs Indianapolis

The Tennessee Titans' passing game indeed showed improvements under Mason Rudolph compared to Will Levis. However, Levis is slated to start this week if his shoulder is fully recovered, despite a difficult season so far. Levis has struggled with sack rate and downfield passing, ranking last among qualifiers in sack rate and 28th in yardage rate. However, his 11th-ranked completion percentage suggests he's been conservative with shorter, safer throws. With the Indianapolis Colts' weak pass defense on tap, this could be an opportunity to take more risks and air the ball out. DeAndre Hopkins is in line for favorable matchups, as the Colts have struggled mightily to handle downfield throws and carry receivers effectively. Hopkins could easily exploit this defense with deep routes like go and post patterns.

The Colts' pass defense has been the main culprit in several shootouts this season. Over the last three weeks, they've allowed an average of 350 yards through the air to opponents like Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence, all of whom posted season-high numbers against this unit. The defense has consistently been victimized by big plays downfield. Last week, Lawrence completed 82% of his throws, much higher than his season average, and connected on multiple long completions. Brian Thomas Jr.. burned them for an 85-yard touchdown, while Christian Kirk added a 61-yard reception. Even with their top cornerback, Kenny Moore II, healthy, the Colts have had trouble limiting explosive plays. Secondary players like Jaylon Jones and Samuel Womack III are serviceable but lack the shutdown ability to slow good wideouts. Their issues are compounded by poor safety play and soft zone coverages, leaving them vulnerable to deep balls. This season alone, they've allowed four opposing wide receivers to top 110 yards, averaging 15.2 yards per catch.

Washington at Baltimore

The Jayden Daniels experience continues to impress as he maintains his knack for creating havoc in opposing defenses. Although his accuracy wasn't at its best in Week 5, Daniels still averaged an impressive 9.5 yards per attempt, consistently making big plays downfield. His connection with wideout Terry McLaurin has been strong, highlighted by a perfectly timed 66-yard strike that saw McLaurin outrun coverage with ease. Later in the game, Daniels hit Dyami Brown for a 41-yard touchdown, and he nearly added a 98-yard bomb to Zach Ertz. Even in his raw state as a young quarterback, Daniels is showing flashes of brilliance, solidifying his status as an elite fantasy option. The lack of a clear-cut target hog in Washington's offense has resulted in Daniels distributing the ball on big plays. McLaurin leads the team with a 27% target share, more than enough to expect a productive performance in favorable matchups like Week 6.

Baltimore's defense, once a hallmark of the team, now plays second fiddle to the offensive playmaking of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. So far this season, the Ravens defense has allowed three of the four quarterbacks they've faced to surpass 275 yards. Even Gardner Minshew II succeeded in Week 2, completing 30 of 38 throws. Joe Burrow had a career day against them in Week 5, throwing for 392 yards and five touchdowns. The Ravens' issues stem from both their pass rush and coverage downfield. Despite the presence of capable safeties in Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, Baltimore has been vulnerable to deep passes and quick-hitting routes in the seams between corners and safeties. Adding to the problem is a pass rush that ranks just 25th in the league, generating pressure on only 4.8% of dropbacks. Kyle Van Noy leads the team in sacks and quarterback hits, but more is needed from the defensive front. Until Baltimore improves its pass rush and deep coverage, the red-hot Daniels will likely have no problem testing their vulnerable zones on Sunday.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Baker Mayfield is having something of a resurgence in 2024, posting some of the best numbers of his career at age 29. Though his physical tools remain more solid than spectacular, Mayfield has shown growth in protecting the football and managing games effectively. He ranks 21st in air yards per throw and 27th in air yards per completion among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, reflecting his reliance on safer, shorter throws. While that reduces his fantasy upside, it has helped him maintain control over games, preventing turnovers. However, this also means his passing yardage can be inconsistent, with strong games of 289 and 347 yards offset by sub-185-yard performances in other outings. The focal points of Mayfield's passing game are clear, with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans dominating the target share. Godwin, known for his dependability, leads the team with a 26% target share, making him a solid volume-based play in fantasy leagues. However, Godwin hasn't surpassed 70 yards since Week 2, making his production more modest than explosive. Meanwhile, Evans, the big-play receiver, continues to be the source of higher upside, though he's become increasingly touchdown-dependent, only surpassing five receptions or 65 yards once this season. The Buccaneers' receiving corps beyond those two is shallow, with no other receiver seeing much involvement, as evidenced by the fact that ex-Giant Sterling Shepard has been brought in to fill some gaps.

On the defensive side, Dennis Allen's Saints have maintained their reputation for strong situational play, even if the unit overall is struggling. Sitting 26th in pass defense in 2024, they've given up 290+ passing yards in three of their five games, despite facing tough competition. While Marshon Lattimore remains a standout cornerback, frequently deterring quarterbacks from throwing in his direction, the rest of the secondary has been more vulnerable, particularly against slot receivers and tight ends. For instance, Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce posted big games against the Saints, as did the Chiefs' JuJu Smith-Schuster, who racked up 130 yards by repeatedly exploiting holes in coverage.  The Saints' pass rush hasn't been disruptive enough to consistently collapse pockets, which has given quarterbacks time to find open receivers over the middle and in the slot. The lack of coverage talent at safety has also been a weak spot, making it an area of concern in high-volume matchups like this one. All in all, this could set up as a game with plenty of passing opportunities for Mayfield, even if the big plays remain few and far between.