Week 5 Passing Matchups

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

San Francisco vs Arizona

Brock Purdy has surprised many by leading the NFL in passing through four weeks, averaging 283 yards per game. This is a notable increase from his usual pace, largely driven by the absence of Christian McCaffrey, who is sidelined due to injury. Though Jordan Mason fills in capably, he’s not quite the offensive centerpiece McCaffrey is when healthy. Purdy is now throwing 31 passes per game, a 15% increase over his career average. While this figure isn’t extraordinary by league standards, Purdy thrives in the highly efficient San Francisco system under head coach Kyle Shanahan. Surrounded by elite pass-catching talent, Purdy has become one of the league’s premier deep-ball passers. In fact, he ranks second in air yards per attempt and completion, trailing only Anthony Richardson. Despite several injuries to key players, Purdy’s outlook remains promising. Tight end George Kittle has returned and is contributing impactful plays, while Jauan Jennings has emerged as one of the best backup wideouts in the league. Jennings has led the 49ers with 18 targets over the last two weeks, translating them into 263 yards and three touchdowns. With this versatile group, Purdy continues to lead one of the NFL's most efficient offenses.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have faced relatively few passing attempts (fourth-lowest in the league), but when challenged, their defense has faltered. They rank 31st in yards allowed per throw and 25th in expected value against the pass. Over the last two weeks, opposing quarterbacks Jared Goff and rookie Jayden Daniels have completed a staggering 83% of their passes against Arizona at 8.2 yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks also saw a receiver haul in seven receptions against this unit. Arizona’s defense lacks young talent, particularly in the secondary, where Sean Murphy-Bunting is miscast as an outside cornerback, and Starling Thomas V has struggled in coverage. Safeties Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker are far more effective in run support than in pass defense. Meanwhile, slot corner Garrett Williams excels at limiting yards after the catch, but this often leads to high-reception games for opposing receivers, especially in PPR formats. The Cardinals' defense has yet to face a true passing barrage, but a close divisional game against a prolific passing offense like the 49ers could push them into a high-volume shootout, exposing their weaknesses further.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Despite not having a secured starting job since 2019, Joe Flacco has made at least one start every season from 2020-2023, and this could be his first start in 2024. Anthony Richardson exited Week 4 with a hip pointer, an injury that could potentially sideline him for Week 5. If Flacco starts, we can expect him to drop back and throw regularly, just as he did during his time filling in for Cleveland in 2023. Last week, Flacco dropped back 28 times in just 3.5 quarters despite the Colts leading comfortably for much of the game. This quarterback shift might benefit top wideout Michael Pittman Jr, who finally had a breakout game in Week 4. Pittman, who had just 11 catches for 88 yards across the first three weeks, exploded for 6 receptions and 113 yards against the Steelers. However, Pittman is talented enough to produce no matter who is under center, as his first two big plays of the day (a 32-yard and a 28-yard reception) came with Richardson at quarterback. If Flacco remains the starter, Pittman and wideout Josh Downs are likely to dominate the Colts’ target share. In Week 4, the two combined for 14 catches, 195 yards, and a touchdown, with Downs continuing to emerge as a reliable slot receiver.

The Jaguars’ pass defense remains weak, as they were scorched yet again in Week 4. This time, it was by division rival C.J. Stroud, who passed for 345 yards and led a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter. Houston’s top wideout, Nico Collins had his way with the Jaguars’ secondary, posting 151 yards and a touchdown on 12 catches. The absence of star cornerback Tyson Campbell is a glaring issue, leaving young and inexperienced players like Montaric Brown and Jarrian Jones to try and hold things together. Brown has been consistently targeted by opposing offenses, while Jones, despite showing potential, is still growing into a full-time role. The Jaguars’ safeties, Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson, are more comfortable defending the run than the pass, which further limits their ability to help against the deep ball. Adding to their defensive struggles, the Jaguars’ once-solid pass rush has regressed significantly. They’ve dropped from 12th to 23rd in pressure rate, and even edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen has managed just six quarterback hits and one sack this season. Without any improvement in their pass rush or secondary, the Jaguars could continue to be vulnerable to opposing passing attacks.

Jacksonville vs Indianapolis

The 2024 season hasn’t started as expected for the Jaguars or Trevor Lawrence, as they find themselves at 0-4, and Lawrence has yet to hit his stride. Despite not surpassing 220 passing yards in a single game thus far, Lawrence still displays his physical gifts and potential. His efficiency downfield is promising, as he ranks fifth among qualifying quarterbacks in air yards per completion. A favorable Week 5 matchup could provide an opportunity for Lawrence to elevate his game. The Jaguars’ passing attack still features dynamic weapons. Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. continues to win against man coverage on the outside, offering big-play potential. Christian Kirk remains a reliable possession receiver who can operate effectively both inside and outside. Additionally, Gabe Davis, who started the season strong with 6 catches for 105 yards over the first two weeks, could see a resurgence after a dip in production. Although the Jaguars’ passing unit hasn’t been especially enticing in recent weeks, there are signs that Lawrence and his receivers could switch into a higher gear soon.

The Colts' defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to find their rhythm for two consecutive weeks. In Week 3, rookie Caleb Williams from the Bears threw for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns in a breakout performance. The following week, Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields recorded 312 passing yards and a touchdown, marking his best game since early last season. The Colts’ cornerback duo of Jaylon Jones and Samuel Womack III has struggled against big-bodied downfield receivers like Nico Collins and George Pickens, who have taken advantage of this matchup. Slot cornerback Kenny Moore II’s potential absence due to a hip injury could further weaken the secondary. Moore had been instrumental in limiting early-season performances from players like Tank Dell and Jayden Reed. If he remains sidelined, Chris Lammons, who has limited NFL experience, will be tasked with covering Christian Kirk or even Evan Engram. This opens the door for Trevor Lawrence to exploit this matchup and capitalize on yards after the catch (YAC) opportunities.