Week 16 Offensive Sleepers

Sleepers at Quarterback

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta (vs NY Giants)

Penix will have the element of surprise in his corner as the Falcons have been running a very limited playbook with Kirk Cousins confined to the pocket. The Giants defense is depleted by injuries, and the team has nothing to play for. Excitement will permeate the crowd in Atlanta and probably the Falcons locker room, as this season has new possibilities. Penix can add value as a runner, and he has a lot of talented, healthy players to throw to.

Mac Jones, Jacksonville (at Las Vegas)

Jones played loose last week and displayed more scrambling ability than expected in a good sign for his fantasy value. Playing Jones gets Brian Thomas Jr. into your lineup, and the Raiders defense will be without all-world defensive end Maxx Crosby. Jones has been playing much better the second time around as the starter for the Jaguars and he’s deserving of a look in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (vs LA Rams)

Rodgers appears to be having more fun playing than he has all year, and he was healthy enough to post 45 yards as a runner last week. He had 12 rushing yards total since Week 5. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams can add a lot of value as receivers, and Breece Hall is off of the injury report to give Rodgers another weapon. This could turn into a veteran quarterback shootout with both defenses vulnerable in the secondary.

Mason Rudolph, Tennessee (at Indianapolis)

Rudolph was highly efficient in relief of Will Levis last week, passing for over 200 yards and two scores in a quarter and a half of action. He also passed for at least 200 yards and a score in each of his three starts earlier this season. Rudolph peppered the tight ends with targets when he got in last week, and the Colts just gave up two scores to Broncos tight ends, who aren’t exactly known for their receiving prowess.

Sleepers at Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta (vs NY Giants)

Pitts could be a dud again, but if you don’t have a reliable tight end option, he might be your best play. The promise of Michael Penix Jr. opening up the downfield passing game and perhaps even allowing the Falcons to dust off long-developing passing plays that get Pitts' speed into play against linebackers down the seam could get Pitts going after he was neglected and rejected as a target in the Kirk Cousins pass offense.

Foster Moreau, New Orleans (at Green Bay)

Moreau caught what could have been the game-winning touchdown, but Juwan Johnson had what could have been the game-winning two-point conversion glance off of his hands. That could encourage Spencer Rattler to go back to Moreau more than Johnson, and the two tight ends are his top targets, especially with Alvin Kamara trending toward sitting this one out. Moreau has at least 39 receiving yards in three of his last four games.

Chig Okonkwo, Josh Whyle, Tennessee (at Indianapolis)

Mason Rudolph threw to Okonkwo eight times and Whyle five times in one-and-a-half quarters of play last week. He has a conservative approach at quarterback, which dovetails well with the two tight ends working in the short range of the passing game. Okonkwo is the better play of the two, but Whyle suffices as a desperation play who could hit in Week 16 if you have to go to the waiver wire for your tight end.

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh) **Saturday**

Likely has some upside as a playmaking tight end, and he was the leading receiver for the team in the loss to the Steelers in the first meeting with 75 yards on four catches. When the Ravens struggled against the Eagles in Week 13, Likely caught five balls for 38 yards and a score, and his biggest game of the season came when the Ravens offense was having a rough time against the Chiefs in the season opener. If nothing is coming easy for Lamar Jackson - which is the norm when he faces Pittsburgh - Likely could be a frequent target.

Sleepers at Running Back

Jerome Ford, Cleveland (at Cincinnati)

Ford was the fastest player on the field for the Browns as he easily pulled away from the Chiefs defense on a 62-yard touchdown last week, so you know he is fresh going into Week 16. Ford was the starter before Nick Chubb was activated from injured reserve, and he had a six-catch and a seven-catch game during that stretch. There’s a possibility of a big PPR game with Dorian Thompson-Robinson a limited downfield passer and the Browns other best short range target - David Njoku - not 100% and not a sure thing to play.

Kendre Miller, New Orleans (at Green Bay)

Nick Underhill, who is as tuned into the Saints as much as any beat writer, has advised us to expect Alvin Kamara to miss Week 16, if not longer. Miller has fresh legs and should be the clear lead back. The bigger question is how long the Saints can hang in the game at Green Bay and keep the running game on track. Hopefully, Miller can get at least some of the targets Kamara would get from Spencer Rattler and help out teams that use him as a flex or emergency playoff RB2 even if the Saints get blown out.

Patrick Taylor Jr., San Francisco (at Miami)

Isaac Guerendo is unlikely to play against Miami, so Taylor is next man up. He has been with the team all season, unlike Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Israel Abanikanda, so he should get the majority of the snaps and running back touches. Taylor isn’t as explosive as Guerendo, but he should be well-versed in the Kyle Shanahan running game, having played for one of his disciples, Matt LaFleur, from 2020-2023 in Green Bay.

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta (vs NY Giants)

Allgeier should get plenty of opportunity to run in the second half unless Drew Lock somehow keeps the Giants competitive in this game. Allgeier has regained his early season form, going for 106 yards on his 26 carries over the last two weeks. Justice Hill had a strong game as the #2 back against the Giants last week, and the Giants defense is missing important defensive players at all three levels of the defense.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee (at Indianapolis)

Tony Pollard missed practice to open the week with an ankle injury that sidelined him for part of the Week 15 game. He has played well after no practice participation, but the Titans' willingness to put him out there at less than 100% could change with the season lost and Spears back from his myriad of injuries. Spears was the most explosive player on the field for the Titans last week, and he had a good connection with Mason Rudolph in the passing game. He was one of the best running back plays of Week 16, and deserves a flex look if Pollard plays and a fantasy RB2 ranking if Pollard sits this week.

Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas (vs Jacksonville)

Sincere McCormick’s Cinderella run as the starting running back for the Raiders came to a screeching halt when he suffered a season-ending ankle injury last week. That will put Mattison and Abdullah in place as the backfield committee. They should get a boost from Aidan O’Connell starting. He has completed at least four passes to running backs in each of the two games he started and finished, including five to Alexander Mattison in one game alone. Abdullah was a great PPR play last week in garbage time and could hit as a desperation play again this week.

Sleepers at Wide Receiver

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay (at Dallas)

McMillan might not be much of a sleeper after scoring three touchdowns in the last two games, but consider this an endorsement to play him over receivers you drafted and trusted long before his recent outburst. McMillan is the clear WR2 in one of the best pass offenses in the league, and he’s facing a depleted Cowboys secondary. He should be in lineups as a WR3/Flex unless your cup runneth over with wide receiver options.

Jalen Coker, Carolina (vs Arizona)

Coker got on our radar with an 83-yard touchdown last week, and his opportunity should grow with Xavier Legette likely sidelined this week with a groin injury. The Cowboys defense slowed down Bryce Young last week after a three-week hot streak put him back in the “quarterback of the future” spot for Carolina, but the Cardinals don’t have someone like Micah Parsons, so Young should have more time to throw downfield and hopefully find Coker for another big play or two.

Malik Washington, Miami (vs San Francisco)

Washington is set to be a full-time player in the Dolphins pass offense with Jaylen Waddle likely sidelined by a knee injury. Washington is getting a lot of short targets, and while he lacks Tyreek Hill’s world-class speed, he IS just as much of a handful with the ball in his hands after the catch, so his strengths mesh well with a Dolphins pass offense that didn’t create time for Tua Tagovailoa to throw downfield last week.

Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh (at Baltimore)

Watch George Pickens' status, but he did not practice to open the week. The Steelers know their offense is severely limited without him, so they may not risk him at less than 100% when an aggravation of his hamstring injury would probably extend his absence into the playoffs. Austin caught all five of his targets last week in a terrible offensive game for the Steelers, and this matchup should be better than the red-hot Eagles defense. If the Steelers fall behind the Ravens, expect Russell Wilson to take some chances throwing the ball downfield to Austin.

Quentin Johnston, LA Chargers (vs Denver) **Thursday**

Johnston has scored in each of the last two games and has at least seven targets and five catches in both games. That gives him a high floor against the Broncos unless the team decides to put Patrick Surtain II on him. It makes more sense for Surtain to put a lid on the downfield passing game by blotting out Joshua Palmer, but there is risk in playing Johnston. The Chargers have done a good job getting him the ball in the short passing game to set up his speed after the catch.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis (vs Tennessee)

Downs is a risky play with the erratic Anthony Richardson at the helm, but Shane Steichen emphasized him in the game plan during the first matchup with the Titans. Downs caught seven balls and a touchdown, and even though it was with Joe Flacco, that means there is something there for Downs to exploit in the short passing game. Downs also has the speed to get open deep and could get the money targets in the vertical passing game if Alec Pierce is out again. Pierce hasn’t practiced this week as of Thursday.