A good sports betting column should be backed by a profitable gambler with a proven track record. It should offer picks generated by a sophisticated and conceptually sound model. Most importantly, it should treat the subject with the seriousness it warrants.

This is not that column.

Instead, this will be an off-beat look at the sports betting industry-- why Vegas keeps winning, why gambling advice is almost certainly not worth the money, and the structural reasons why even if a bettor were profitable, anything they wrote would be unlikely to make their readers net profitable, too.

While we're at it, we'll discuss ways to minimize Vegas' edge and make recreational betting more fun, explain how to gain an advantage in your office pick pools, preview games through an offbeat lens (with picks guaranteed to be no worse than chance), and tackle various other Odds and Ends along the way.

Looking at the Futures

Since it's the start of the playoffs, I wanted to kick us off with a look at the current Super Bowl futures for all remaining teams. Last year, I correctly picked the Kansas City Chiefs to win it all, writing: 

Hello? +1000 odds on the defending Super Bowl Champions? A team with two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes II, first-ballot Hall of Fame head coach Andy Reid, and their best defense since 2016? Am I missing something here? They're a slam-dunk bet.

I also incorrectly picked the 49ers, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Eagles, Dolphins, Lions, Browns, Rams, Texans, Buccaneers, Packers, and Steelers to win it all. What can I say, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

You're all in for a repeat performance because I'm about to correctly pick this year's Super Bowl Champion and also incorrectly pick everyone else.

Detroit Lions (+275)

They're the best team in the NFL. The best team always wins. Take it to the bank.

Kansas City Chiefs (+350)

Look, I don't know a lot about football, but I know you always take the better quarterback in the playoffs, and the Chiefs have the best quarterback in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens (+600)

Look, I don't know a lot about football, but I know you always take the better quarterback in the playoffs, and the Ravens have the best quarterback in the NFL. 

Buffalo Bills (+600)

Look, I don't know a lot about football, but I know you always take the better quarterback in the playoffs, and the Bills have the best quarterback in the NFL. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+700)

Saquon Barkley had a chance to break the single-season rushing yardage record, but he told his coaches he'd rather be healthy and rested to maximize their chances in the playoffs. The Football Gods look favorably on this kind of sacrifice and will surely reward him with a ring.

Minnesota Vikings (+1600)

Many believe this franchise is cursed, but these are not your father's Minnesota Vikings. I don't think. Maybe they are; it's hard to say. But if they're not, then the franchise that ties for the most Super Bowl losses without a win is due for a win. (And if they are, then they're not. That's why it's called gambling.)

Green Bay Packers (+1800)

Every Green Bay Packers quarterback goes on to win 3+ league MVPs and make the Hall of Fame. Along the way, they all win one-- and only one-- Super Bowl, typically early enough in their career that no one ever has to question whether they're a choker. (Bart Starr won five championships, but only two of them were Super Bowls-- and he had to sacrifice two of his league MVPs to get that second Super Bowl.)

Why does this happen to every Green Bay quarterback? Because the Football Gods hate Bears fans, that's why. I think this year, Love gets his ring knocked out so he can begin focusing on the many MVPs.