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One of fantasy football's greatest conundrums is who to pick in a wide receiver room when there are two or even three worthy options. The Houston Texans currently have that scenario, with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and the newly arrived Stefon Diggs, but Collins is the receiver you should choose.

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Fresh off the fabled third-year breakout, Collins is all set to truly complete his ascent into the WR1 that we, as fantasy football players, always assumed was a possibility when he was drafted into the NFL in 2021. He had meager statistics in his first two seasons, but quarterback C.J. Stroud's arrival, coupled with new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's offensive scheme, made things click in the perfect manner.

The question here isn't whether Collins is good enough or not to lead this receiving corps -- that's something we already know the answer is yes to. The real question is this: can he pay off his ADP this season, even with Diggs and Dell garnering their target share as well?

Nico Collins' Profile

Collins entered the NFL in the 2022 NFL Draft out of Michigan, having been drafted in the second round, but his college production made him far from a sure thing and more of a projection. Our Matt Waldman had this to say about Collins' projected NFL role, from his Rookie Scouting Portfolio:

Rotational Starter: Executes at a starter level in a role playing to his strengths. On the cusp of a Contributor, which means starter production in a limited role and diminishing returns outside of that responsibility.

For the first couple of seasons, that held true for Collins, as he could not surpass 500 receiving yards in a season or 40 receptions. The talent he was playing with, notably at quarterback, was understandably an issue, but plenty questioned whether Collins could break out. He was talented enough to flash plenty of potential. But his speed was questionable at times, and he would struggle to earn separation.

That all changed in 2023 with the arrival of Slowik and Stroud. Slowik brought plenty of West Coast offense influence from his time spent with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, and Stroud got moving right away on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award. That offensive output got passed down to Collins, and the results were fruitful: nearly 1,300 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.

Stefon Diggs' Arrival

Diggs had spent the last few years in the Buffalo Bills organization, where he was traded to in 2020. As the Bills continued to miss on converting their Super Bowl window, though, Diggs seemed to get frustrated, and his final season as a Bill saw his playtime dip considerably, from around 90% to some games in the 60s.

As a result, Diggs was traded to the Texans, along with multiple future draft picks, in April 2024 in exchange for a second-round pick in 2025. This trade immediately leapt the Texans from a mid-level wide receiver room into one of the NFL's best trios, and ensured that Stroud would have plenty of options to look at when throwing. You can check out our Dave Kluge's view on the Diggs trade here.

Diggs' 2023 season posited a major question for the generational but also mercurial wideout: Was 2023 just a down year due to Diggs' perceived frustration, or was there a true decline in play?

He experienced a drop in efficiency, almost across the board. His Yards per Route Run decreased from 2.87 in 2022 to 2.03, his Target Separation from 2.04 to 1.65, and his Fantasy Point per Target from 2.07 to 1.71. He also only saw two total redzone touches across the Bills' final eight games.