Digging Deeper: See more Week 18 motivation links below.
Team-by-Team Motivation | Player-by-Player Motivation: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
The trickiest part of Week 18 is determining where teams stand regarding effort. Some teams have their backs against the wall, while others want to emerge healthy. Meanwhile, a few have perfected "1-2-3 Cancun" for weeks.
We go game by game to see who has things to play for, either from a team perspective or based on statistical milestones.
A note: "Motivation" is entirely made up and subjective. The players playing will give their all, but teams will make selective choices on who plays and who sits out.
First, an overview of the Week 18 slate.
Key
- Fighting Playoff Elimination
- Playoff Seeding
- Spoilers
Games With Both Teams Motivated
- Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
- Minnesota at Detroit
Games With One Team Motivated
- Cleveland at Baltimore
- Carolina at Atlanta
- Washington at Dallas
- Chicago at Green Bay
- New Orleans at Tampa Bay
- Kansas City at Denver
- Seattle at LA Rams
- LA Chargers at Las Vegas
- Miami at NY Jets
Games With Neither Team Motivated
- Jacksonville at Indianapolis
- Buffalo at New England
- NY Giants at Philadelphia
- Houston at Tennessee
- San Francisco at Arizona
Now, here's a game-by-game look at Week 18 motivation.
Saturday, January 4th - 4:30 pm Eastern
Cleveland (3-13) at Baltimore (11-5) (ESPN / ABC)
Early Line: Ravens -17.5
Baltimore Motivation: 10/10
Projected Playoff Position: Third Seed (Range: AFC North champion and Third seed to Fifth seed)
Cleveland Motivation 1/10
Projected Draft Position: Second Overall (Range: First pick to Seventh pick)
Baltimore clinches the AFC North with a win. Pittsburgh wins the division with a Baltimore loss and a win over Cincinnati. The winner of the AFC North is locked into the three seed. Baltimore would have the fifth seed if they lose the division, opening the playoffs in Houston.
Cleveland could get to the number one pick, but they need New England and Tennessee to win. They would win the strength of schedule tiebreaker against the Giants but not the Patriots or Titans. An upset against the Ravens could drop them to the seventh pick: they would unlikely lose the tiebreaker to Las Vegas to fall further.
Saturday, January 6 - 8:00 pm Eastern
Cincinnati (8-8) at Pittsburgh (10-6) (ESPN / ABC)
Early Line: Bengals -1.5
Cincinnati Motivation: 10/10
Projected Playoff Position: Eliminated - 16th Pick (Range: Seventh seed to 13th pick)
Pittsburgh Motivation 10/10
Projected Playoff Position: Sixth Seed (Range: AFC North champion and Third seed to Sixth seed)
Cincinnati needs to win, and they need Denver and Miami to lose to claim the seventh seed and a trip to Buffalo. Miami is a 1.5-point favorite against the Jets, while Denver is an 11-point favorite against Kansas City, who will rest their starters. A Bengals loss combined with wins by Miami, Arizona, and Dallas would give the Bengals the 13th pick.
Pittsburgh is in the playoffs, but it has many outcomes. A win combined with a Baltimore loss would give them the AFC North and the third seed. A loss combined with a Chargers win would push them to the sixth seed, opening on the road in Baltimore. A win, combined with a Baltimore win or a loss and a Chargers loss, would put them fifth at Houston.
Sunday, January 5th - 1:00 pm Eastern
Carolina (4-12) at Atlanta (8-8) (CBS)
Early Line: Falcons -8.0
Atlanta Motivation: 10/10
Projected Playoff Position: Eliminated - 17th Pick (Range: NFC South champion and Fourth seed to 13th pick)
Carolina Motivation 1/10
Projected Draft Position: Sixth Pick (Range: Second Pick to Ninth pick)
Atlanta needs to win, and they need Tampa Bay to lose to New Orleans. The Buccaneers are 13-point favorites. If the Falcons lose, wins by Cincinnati, Miami, Dallas, and Arizona would push them to the 13th pick. A win combined with a Seattle loss and a Tampa Bay win would give them the 18th pick.
Carolina can climb as high as the second pick with a loss and wins by Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Giants but can not get above New England on the tiebreaker. If they finish with the same record as the Jets, the Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh game would decide the draft order between them. A Steelers win would give the Jets the later pick, while a Bengals win would flip to Carolina. A win could tie New Orleans's record, but the Saints would lose the tiebreaker on order.
Washington (11-5) at Dallas (7-9) (FOX)
Early Line: Washington -4.5
Washington Motivation: 8/10
Projected Playoff Position: Sixth Seed (Range: Sixth or Seventh Seed)
Dallas Motivation 1/10
Projected Draft Position: 12th Pick (Range: 11th pick to 17th pick)
Washington holds the tiebreaker against Green Bay; a Commanders win would give them the sixth seed. A loss combined with a Packers win pushes them to the seventh seed. Coach Dan Quinn stated that seeding is important and that they will not rest their starters.
The Colts are favored to beat Jacksonville, pushing the Cowboys to the 12th pick. With a loss and wins by Indianapolis and San Francisco, they can move up to 11th. A Dallas win, plus losses by Atlanta, Miami, Cincinnati, and Arizona, would drop them to the 17th pick. Dallas would lose the tiebreaker to any of the Falcons, Bengals, or Dolphins.
Chicago (4-12) at Green Bay (11-5) (FOX)
Early Line: Packers -9.0
Green Bay Motivation: 8/10
Projected Playoff Position: Seventh Seed (Range: Sixth or Seventh Seed)
Chicago Motivation 0/10
Projected Draft Position: Ninth Pick (Range: Fifth pick to Tenth pick)
Per the Commanders’ note, the Packers need a win and a Washington loss to move to the sixth seed. When asked about resting starters, Coach Matt Lafleur responded, “Win Every Game.” The Packers have already been conservative with Josh Jacobs's usage in the second half of games; if Washington builds a significant lead, expect the starters to get the hook.
Chicago plays in the strongest division in the NFL, giving them the best (or worst) strength of schedule and losing all tiebreaking scenarios. They can climb to the fifth pick if four underdogs lose, while a win would push them to tenth.
Jacksonville (4-12) at Indianapolis (7-9) (FOX)
Early Line: Indianapolis -4.5
Jacksonville Motivation: 0/10
Projected Draft Position: Fourth Pick (Range: Second Pick to Ninth Pick)
Indianapolis Motivation 0/10
Projected Draft Position: 13th Pick (Range: 11th Pick to 15th Pick)
New England is the only team Jacksonville would lose the tiebreaker to, eliminating them from the first pick. If Cleveland, Tennessee, and the Giants pull upsets, the Jaguars move to second. If the pack of teams with four wins all lose, the Jaguars would drop to ninth with a win.
The Colts would win a tiebreaker with every team in their range except Miami. A loss and a San Francisco win would give them the 11th pick. Dallas, Arizona, and Miami's wins, combined with a Colts loss, would place them 15th.
Buffalo (13-3) at New England (3-13) (CBS)
Early Line: Buffalo -2.5
Buffalo Motivation: 0/10
Playoff Position: Second Seed
New England Motivation 10/10
Projected Draft Position: First Pick (Range: First Pick to Fourth Pick)
The Bills are locked into the second seed. Coach Sean McDermott has been cagey about the team’s plans. Given past usage, expect a series or two at the most from players like Josh Allen.
A loss secures the first pick for New England. They would win the tiebreaker for the lowest strength of schedule with any team, putting their floor at the fourth pick.
NY Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia (13-3) (CBS)
Early Line: Philadelphia -3.0
New York Giants Motivation: 0/10
Projected Draft Position: Third Pick (Range: First Pick to Ninth Pick)
Philadelphia Motivation 1/10
Playoff Position: Second Seed
The Giants could get the first pick if they are the only three-win team to lose. However, their strong record could drop them to ninth with a win.
The Eagles will be the second seed; they announced that key starters, including Saquon Barkley, will rest in Week 18.
New Orleans (5-11) at Tampa Bay (9-7) (FOX)
Early Line: Tampa Bay -13.0
New Orleans Motivation: 1/10
Projected Draft Position: Tenth Pick (Range: Eighth Pick to Tenth Pick)
Tampa Bay Motivation 10/10
Projected Playoff Position: Third Seed (Range: NFC South champion and Third seed to 17th pick)
Chicago or Las Vegas would move behind New Orleans with a win and a Saints loss. They can not move down from the tenth pick.
Tampa Bay is in the playoffs with a win. They could jump the Rams for the third seed with a win and a Rams loss. A loss combined with a Falcons loss would keep them in the fourth seed. Losing with the Falcons winning would eliminate them.
Houston (9-7) at Tennessee (3-12) (CBS)
Early Line: Tennessee -1.0
Houston Motivation: 0/10
Playoff Position: Fourth Seed
Tennessee Motivation 0/10
Projected Draft Position: Seventh Pick (Range: First Pick to Seventh)
Houston is locked into the fourth seed, but coach DeMecco Ryans said he will play his starters.
If Tennessee loses, it can move to the number one pick if New England wins. The Titans are favored, and winning could push them down to the seventh pick.
Sunday, January 5th - 4:25 pm Eastern
San Francisco (6-10) at Arizona (7-9) (FOX)
Early Line: Arizona -4.0
San Francisco Motivation: 0/10
Projected Draft Position: 11th Pick (Range:11th Pick to 14th Pick)
Arizona Motivation 0/10
Projected Draft Position: 14th Pick (Range: 11th Pick to 17th Pick)
San Francisco has the highest strength of record in the NFL. They are the only six-win team, and New Orleans is the only five-win team. The 49ers would lose to the Saints on the tiebreaker, locking the 11th pick as their highest placement. They would lose the tiebreaker to any of the three teams with seven wins.
The Cardinals would beat the 49ers on the tiebreaker, opening up the 11th pick, but lose to any other team that finishes with the same number of wins.
Kansas City (15-1) at Denver (9-7) (CBS)
Early Line: Denver -10.5
Kansas City Motivation: 0/10
Playoff Position: First Seed
Denver Motivation 10/10
Projected Playoff Position: Seventh Seed (Range: Seventh Seed to 16th Pick)
Jay Glazer says the Chiefs are resting everyone, “Anybody who's banged up. Anybody like Patrick Mahomes II, Chris Jones. If you've got a hangnail and are a starter, you're not playing for Kansas City. They want to make sure they go into the playoffs healthy.”
The Broncos are in a “win and in” situation. A loss would require losses by Miami and Cincinnati. The Dolphins kick off in the same window, eliminating the chance the Broncos can back their way in before playing. They would win tiebreakers against Seattle and Atlanta for draft position but lose to Miami or Cincinnati.
Seattle (9-7) at LA Rams (10-6) (FOX)
Early Line: Seattle -5.5
Seattle Motivation: 0/10
Projected Draft Position: 18th Pick (Range: 17th Pick to 18th Pick)
Los Angeles Rams Motivation 9/10
Projected Playoff Position: Fourth Seed (Range: Third Seed to Fourth Seed)
The NFC West came down to a strength of victory tiebreaker that went in the Rams' favor in Week 17, eliminating the Seahawks. They can pick 18th or 17th with a loss, and Atlanta wins.
A win gives the Rams the third seed. A loss combined with a Tampa Bay win pushes them to fourth. Sean McVay’s plan will err towards resting players: “But relative to what's at risk, what's at reward in terms of either or, and being able to get maybe some guys that are -- you know, the toll that a season takes -- get them back, refreshed, rejuvenated. Typically, we've erred on leaning a little bit more towards that, and I imagine that as we continue to finalize our plans, that's probably the direction we'll go."
LA Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas (4-12) (CBS)
Early Line: LA Chargers -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers Motivation: 8/10
Projected Playoff Seed: Fifth Seed (Range: Fifth Seed to Sixth Seed)
Las Vegas Motivation 0/10
Projected Draft Position: Eighth Pick (Range: Fourth Pick to Tenth Pick)
The Chargers will know their potential outcome before kickoff. A Steelers win locks them into the sixth seed. A Bengals win allows them to move into the fifth seed and play Houston instead of Baltimore. A Steelers win combined with a Ravens loss locks in the sixth seed.
Las Vegas can not climb ahead of New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland. Finishing with the same record as New Orleans would lose the tiebreaker.
Miami (8-8) at NY Jets (4-12) (CBS)
Early Line: Miami -1.5
Miami Motivation: 10/10
Projected Playoff Seed: Eliminated - 15th Pick (Range: Seventh Seed to 12th Pick)
New York Jets Motivation 1/10
Projected Draft Position: 5th Pick (Range: Second Pick to Ninth Pick)
A Miami win and a Denver loss put the Dolphins into the playoffs. The Dolphins have the lowest strength of schedule, opening the potential to move up to 12th with a loss.
The Jets could get as high as second with help or fall to the ninth pick. Their path and tiebreaker are very similar to Carolina’s.
Sunday, January 5th - 8:20 pm Eastern
Minnesota (14-2) at Detroit (14-2) (NBC)
Early Line: Detroit -3
Minnesota Motivation: 10/10
Projected Playoff Seed: Fifth Seed (Range: First Seed or Fifth Seed)
Detroit Motivation 10/10
Projected Playoff Seed: First Seed (Range: First Seed or Fifth Seed)
The winner takes the NFC North and the top seed in the NFC. The loser gets the fifth seed. A tie would put the Lions on top.
Projected Playoff Field
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Houston Texans
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Denver Broncos
NFC
1. Detroit Lions
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. Washington Commanders
7. Green Bay Packers
Projected Draft Order
1. New England Patriots
2. Cleveland Browns
3. New York Giants
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. New York Jets
6. Carolina Panthers
7. Tennessee Titans
8. Las Vegas Raiders
9. Chicago Bears
10. New Orleans Saints
11. San Francisco 49ers
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Arizona Cardinals
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Cincinnati Bengals
17. Atlanta Falcons
18. Seattle Seahawks
The playoff results will fill out the rest of the first round.