Digging Deeper: See more Week 18 motivation links below.
Team-by-Team Motivation | Player-by-Player Motivation: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
The trickiest part of Week 18 is determining where teams stand regarding effort. Some teams have their backs against the wall, while others want to emerge healthy. Meanwhile, a few have perfected "1-2-3 Cancun" for weeks.
We go game by game to see who has things to play for, either from a team perspective or based on statistical milestones.
A note: "Motivation" is entirely made up and subjective. The players playing will give their all, but teams will make selective choices on who plays and who sits out.
What quarterbacks are chasing contract incentives? What statistical milestones are in play?
Players In Must-Win Games
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
- Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh
- Joe Burrow Cincinnati
- Bo Nix, Denver
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
- Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta
- Jared Goff, Detroit
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota
- Jayden Daniels, Washington
Players Expected To Sit
- Josh Allen, Buffalo
- Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City
- Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Players Who Could Sit
- Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
- Jordan Love, Green Bay
- C.J. Stroud, Houston
*All Contract Incentives are from Spotrac
Must Win Players
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
- Team Motivation: 10/10
- Current Stats: 300 / 442, 3,955 yards, 39 touchdowns, four interceptions, 852 rushing yards, four touchdowns
Statistical Milestones: With 45 passing yards and 148 rushing yards, Jackson can be the first player in NFL history with 4,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards. Three players have 3,500 passing yards and 800 rush yards in a season: Jackson (twice), Jayden Daniels, and Kyler Murray.
With one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown, Jackson would be the first player to throw 40 touchdown passes and rush for five touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes II (41-4 in 2022) and Aaron Rodgers (40-4 in 2016) are the only players in the 40-4 club.
Jackson is 362 yards from Joe Flacco’s franchise record 4,317 in 2016. Jackson’s 39 passing touchdowns are already a franchise record.
Jackson broke Michael Vick’s quarterback career rush yards record of 6,109 in Week 17.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh
- Team Motivation: 10 / 10
- Current Stats: 197/ 305, 2,334 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, five interceptions, 601 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns
The Steelers need to win, and a Baltimore loss is necessary to get the three-seed. A loss combined with a Chargers win would push them to the sixth seed.
Statistical Milestones: Wilson has 45,987 career passing yards, good for 17th all-time. He is 246 yards from passing Vinny Testaverde and 260 from Carson Palmer to move into the Top 15. His next touchdown pass will be the 350th of his career. He ranks 12th on the career passing touchdown leaderboard.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
- Team Motivation: 10 / 10
- Current Stats: 423 / 606, 4,641 passing yards, 42 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 202 rushing yards, two touchdowns
Contract Incentives: Burrow would receive $ 500 K for an AFC Championship and $ 1.25 M Super Bowl win.
Statistical Milestones: Burrow’s 4,641 passing yards and 42 passing touchdowns are both Bengals franchise records. Burrow needs 359 yards for the 16th player with a 5,000-yard passing season. His 42 pass touchdowns are the 12th most; Tom Brady and Drew Brees had 43 (tied for tenth), Dan Marino had 44 (ninth), Aaron Rodgers had 45 (eighth), and Drew Brees had 46 (seventh).
Bo Nix, Denver
- Team Motivation: 10 / 10
- Current Stats: 350 / 538, 3,454 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 383 rushing yards, four touchdowns
Statistical Milestones: Nix is one of five rookie quarterbacks to post 3,400+ pass yards and 25+ passing touchdowns. Daniels, Herbert, Baker Mayfield, and Peyton Manning are the others. His passing yards and touchdowns are the Broncos rookie records. Nix’s passing yards are the 15h most by a rookie. With 285 yards, he can reach Manning’s 3,739 for the eighth most. At 347 yards, he can get to Mac Jones’s 3,801 for the sixth most. There is a large gap between fifth place Jameis Winston (4,042) and Jones. Nix and Daniels are tied at 25 touchdown passes, the fifth most. Manning and Russell Wilson had 26, and Mayfield had 2,7 with Herbert’s 31, the rookie record.
Jayden Daniels, Washington
- Team Motivation: 8 / 10
- Current Stats: 325 / 468, 3,530 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 864 rushing yards, six touchdowns
Statistical Milestones: Daniels and Nix are neck and neck in passing totals, so the same rookie milestones apply. He has slightly more passing yards, which currently puts him in 13th. He holds the Commander's franchise record in rookie passing numbers. As mentioned in Jackson’s section, he is one of three quarterbacks in history with 3,500+ pass yards and 800+ rush yards.
It would take a massive day, but Daniels could become the first quarterback with 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards.
He broke Robert Griffin III’s record of 816 rush yards by a rookie quarterback in Week 17.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
- Team Motivation: 10 / 10
- Current Stats: 386 / 538, 4,279 passing yards, 39 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 310 rushing yards, three touchdowns
Contract Incentives: Mayfield has multiple incentives broken down below:
| Milestone | Incentive | Current Stat | Current Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 Passer Rating | $500,000 | 107.6 | 4th |
| Top 10 NFL or Top 5 NFC Completion % | $500,000 | 71.70% | T - 2nd |
| Top 10 NFL or Top 5 NFC Yards / Attempt | $500,000 | 8.00 | T - 7th |
| Top 10 NFL or Top 5 NFC in TD Passes* | $500,000 | 39 | T - 2nd |
| Top 10 NFL or Top 5 NFC in Pass Yards* | $500,000 | 4,279 | 3rd |
| Team Improvement in Yards/Rush + Wild Card Win | $500,000 | ||
| Divisional Round Win | $1,250,00 | ||
| Conference Championship Win | $1,750,000 | ||
| Super Bowl Win | $2,500,000 | ||
| * With improved passer rating, Comp %, Int. %, Total Yards, Yards / Att, and TD Passes |
Hurts is 6th in Passer Rating at 103.7. Mayfield has hit all the qualifiers for the touchdowns and yardage bonuses, except his interception percentage increased from 1.8% to 2.8%. He should hit the first three incentives.
Statistical Milestones: Mayfields’ yardage is the fifth most, and his touchdowns are the third most in franchise history. He is four behind Tom Brady’s franchise record 43 touchdown passes from 2021. He would need 354 yards to climb the franchise single-season record board, with Brady’s 4,633 next.
His 310 rushing yards are a career high. He is one of 20 players in NFL history with 4,200+ passing yards and 300+ rushing yards.
One passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown will grant him access to the 40-4 club mentioned in Jackson’s section.
Jared Goff, Detroit
- Team Motivation: 10 / 10
- Current Stats: 363 / 506, 4,398 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, ten interceptions
Statistical Milestones: Goff’s passing yards are the seventh most in Lions history. With 252 yards, he would move past Matthew Stafford’s 4,650 for the third most in a Lions season. His 36 touchdowns are the second most in team history, trailing Stafford’s 41 from 2011.
His 114 career touchdown passes trail Bobby Layne’s 118 for second place on the Lions franchise leaderboard. Stafford holds the team record with 282. Goff’s 16,656 are already the second most, trailing Stafford’s 45,109.
At 34,827 career passing yards, Goff needs 173 to become the 34th player in NFL history to hit 35,000.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota
- Team Motivation: 10 / 10
- Current Stats: 343 / 504, 4,153 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Statistical Milestones: Darnold’s passing yards are the ninth most in team history. He can leap up the leaderboard, standing just 145 yards from Kirk Cousins’ 4,298 in 2018 for the third most. Cousins also holds the second most, 394 yards away at 4,547 in 2022. Dante Culpepper’s 4,717 in 2004 is the franchise record. At 35 touchdowns, he has tied Cousins for the second most in team history. Culpepper holds that record as well, with 39 in 2004. Darnold needs two touchdown passes to hit 100 in his career.
Expected to Sit
Josh Allen, Buffalo
- Team Motivation: 0 / 10
- Current Stats: 307 / 483, 3,731 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, six interceptions, 531 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns.
Allen is expected to start but leave the game quickly.
Contract Incentives: Allen would receive $ 3.5 M with an AFC Championship win and $ 6 M with a Super Bowl win. An MVP award would be $1.5 M.
Statistical Milestones: Allen has 65 career rushing touchdowns, tying him with Thurman Thomas for the most in franchise history. His next rushing touchdown will put him in sole possession of the franchise record.
Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City
- Team Motivation: 0 / 10
- Current Stats: 392 / 581, 3,928 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 307 rushing yards, two touchdowns.
The Chiefs have announced Carson Wentz will start Week 18.
Statistical Milestones: Mahomes has a streak of six consecutive 4,000-yard seasons in jeopardy of ending. Drew Brees holds the record with 12 straight seasons. Matt Ryan is second at ten, Philip Rivers is third with eight straight, and Matthew Stafford is fourth at seven. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady’s longest streaks were six each.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
- Team Motivation: 0 / 10
- Current Stats: 248 / 361, 2,903 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, five interceptions, 630 rush yards, 14 rush touchdowns.
Hurts left Week 16 early and missed Week 17 with a concussion. The Eagles will rest their key players.
Contract Incentives: Any Super Bowl win would escalate Hurts future salary by $500 K annually.
Statistical Milestones: Hurts can tie the NFL record of 15 quarterback rushing touchdowns he set and shares with Josh Allen from 2023 with one more run. Two more would give him the record alone.
Players Who Could Sit
Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
- Team Motivation: 8 / 10
- Current Stats: 304 / 468, 3,524 yards, 21 touchdowns, three interceptions, 264 rushing yards, two touchdowns
The Chargers will know their potential stakes following Saturday’s Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati game.
Contract Incentives: Herbert would receive $ 1.25 M each for an AFC Championship and Super Bowl win.
Potential Spoilers
Aaron Rodgers, NY Jets
- Team Motivation: 1 / 10
- Current Stats: 345 / 548, 3,623 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
The Jets are attempting to play spoiler, as a win would eliminate the Dolphins from the playoffs.
Statistical Milestones: The significant number is 500 passing touchdowns. Rodgers enters Week 18 with 499 in his career. He is fifth on the all-time list, trailing fourth place Brett Favre’s 508. Rodgers has 62,678 career passing yards, needing 114 to pass Matt Ryan for the seventh most. Rodgers needs 377 yards to break a tie with Ryan for the fifth most 4,000-yard seasons at ten each. Brady and Manning are tied for the most at 14, and Rivers and Brees have 12 each. One more touchdown pass would give Rodgers his 14th season with 25+, moving him into a tie with Brees for the third most. Brady has 17, while Manning has 16.
Geno Smith, Seattle
- Team Motivation: 0 / 10
- Current Stats: 345 / 548, 3,623 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Seattle was eliminated in Week 17, but a win could knock the Rams from the third seed to the fourth seed.
Contract Incentives: Smith has an incentive-laden deal based on his 2022 performance that could net him as much as $15 million broken down as follows:
| Milestone | Incentive | 2022 Total | 2024 Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | $2,000,000 | 4,282 | 4,097 |
| Passing Touchdowns | $2,000,000 | 30 | 17 |
| Completion Percentage | $2,000,000 | 69.8 | 70.2 |
| Passer Rating | $2,000,000 | 100.9 | 90.5 |
| Wins | $2,000,000 | 9 | 9 |
| Hitting All Five | $5,000,000 |
He will not hit the passer rating number, and the touchdowns are very unlikely, knocking out the $5 million bonus.
Throwing for 186 yards and winning the game would net an additional $4 million. Smith has to be careful, as he is on the edge of losing his completion percentage bonus. He was at 68.81% through his first 12 games and has jumped to 75.65% over the last four. His lowest yardage totals have come in two of his previous three, with 149 in Week 15 and 160 in Week 17.
Statistical Milestones: Smith’s 4,282 total in 2022 is the franchise record. Hitting the number to earn his bonus would also create a new franchise high.
Other Games
Kyler Murray, Arizona
- Team Motivation: 0 / 10
- Current Stats: 347 / 506, 3,609 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 550 rush yards, five rushing touchdowns
Contract Incentives: Murray has a salary escalator of $ 750,000 that would kick in with 600 rush yards and six rushing touchdowns. He needs 50 yards and a touchdown to hit that.
Statistical Milestones: Murray needs 369 passing yards to set a new career high. Murray hit 3,600 pass yards and 550 rush yards for the second time in his career. He is one of nine players to hit those numbers. Cam Newton is the only player to do it three times, while Allen, Hurts, Jackson, and Wilson join Murray as players to do it twice. The club would shrink to seven players if Murray hit 3,800 and 600. He would join Allen and Newton as the only players to do that more than once.
Caleb Williams, Chicago
- Team Motivation: 0 / 10
- Current Stats: 330 / 533, 3,393 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, six interceptions, 479 rush yards, zero rushing touchdowns
Statistical Milestones: Williams sits slightly behind Nix and Daniels but has many of the same rookie marks in play. He has the Bears rookie record for yards and ranks 18th in rookie yardage, five yards behind Andy Dalton and 61 yards behind Nix. His yardage is the fifth most in a Bears season, and he could establish a new franchise record, needing 445 yards. As a rookie, he is tied with four others for the 23rd most touchdown passes. Any additional passing touchdowns would shoot up the board, a two-touchdown game would move him into a tie for the 16th most, and three would be the 11th most.
With 107 passing and 21 rushing yards, Williams would join Newton, Daniels, and Murray as the only rookies with 3,500+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards.
Joe Flacco, Indianapolis
- Team Motivation: 0 / 10
- Current Stats: 139 / 208, 1,497 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, seven interceptions
The Colts hope to have Anthony Richardson as their Week 18 starter. Another opportunity to pick up a start would push Flacco over some thresholds.
Contract Incentives: Flacco earns $250,000 for each snap threshold at 30%, 40%, 50%, and 60%. He is currently at 38%; another start could raise his percentage above 40%. He also earns $100,000 for each win, playing over 50% of the snaps.
Statistical Milestones: Flacco broke a tie with Dan Fouts and passed Sonny Jurgenson with two touchdown passes in Week 17. At 256, he is 23rd in NFL history, one behind Derek Carr and five from Dave Krieg. Joe Montana is the threshold for the top 20 at 273.
Mason Rudolph, Tennessee
Cooper Rush, Dallas
Contract Incentives: Rudolph and Rush have playing time incentives.
RuRudolph's cutoffs are 40% ($150,000) / 50% ($350,000) / 60% ($550,000) /70% ($750,000). He is currently 43%. It is nearly impossible to move to 50%, and it would take another quarterback playing 86 snaps (a very high number) to fall below 40%.
Rush's cutoffs are 45% ($250,000) and 55% ($550,000). He is at 52.33% and needs to play 65 snaps (without another quarterback playing) to hit the 55% mark.