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The NFL Coaching Carousel is Constantly Spinning

Turnover is a constant in the NFL, but 2024 marks one of the most pronounced upheavals we've seen recently. Eight teams will have different head coaches in Week One, including Antonio Pierce, who took over as interim head coach last season and was retained. As usual, the turnover at the coordinator level was seismic. Sixteen teams—50% of the league—are ushering in new offensive coordinators, while seventeen teams (53%) have new defensive coordinators.

Getting coaching hires right can't be overstated, both on the actual gridiron and for fantasy football. Last year, Bobby Slowik—who had zero play-calling experience under 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan—took a young Texans roster and turned them into an offensive dynamo, with C.J. Stroud having one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in modern history. On the flip side, the Eagles promoted Brian Johnson from within to replace Shane Steichen and watched as the offense unraveled in the second half, leading to his ouster after just one season.

This season, fourteen teams will have new offensive play-callers, including Joe Brady, who took over mid-year for the Bills in 2023. Each situation brings its own degree of risk and opportunity. Fantasy managers must understand where the changes are most likely to positively and negatively impact player performance.

Evaluating coaches is difficult, but we can try to handicap the fantasy impact by focusing on three lenses:

• What is their play-calling experience?
• How have they performed in the past?
• Are they implementing a new system?

The Known Commodities: Greg Roman and Arthur Smith

We start this year's analysis with the two most experienced offensive hires. Greg Roman reunites with Jim Harbaugh as they look to repeat their successes at Stanford and with the 49ers. Roman has 25 years of NFL experience and stands out with 10 years of NFL play-calling experience. Arthur Smith is the second-most experienced play-caller hired this year (tied with Kellen Moore) but has considerably more overall NFL coaching experience (15 years) versus Moore (6 years), which is why he gets the nod in this category. Smith looks to reignite a moribund Steelers franchise as he returns to his OC roots after a frustrating three-year stint as the Falcons' head coach.

Greg Roman – LA Chargers

• New system? YES (Power Running WCO)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 10 seasons
• Past performance? Mixed, but generally well above league average

The Situation: The Brandon Staley era in Los Angeles was characterized by consistently poor defense and diminishing returns on offense. Despite hitting on young franchise quarterback Justin Herbert, the Chargers' offense fell from 5th in 2021 to 13th in 2022 to 21st in 2023. Bringing Jim Harbaugh back to the NFL fresh off a national championship at the University of Michigan was the splash hire of the offseason. Bringing Roman aboard as his play-caller was predictable, given their long history together at Stanford, the 49ers, and then Roman's long stint as John Harbaugh's OC in Baltimore. Of all the new play-calling hires, Roman has the second-highest average points ranking (12th) and is also the most-known commodity in terms of style and play patterns. Expect a commitment to the ground game, with the Chargers being at or near the top of the league in rushing attempts.

What history tells us about the new coaches: 

Harbaugh in the NFL, as 49ers head coach:

• 2011 -- 451 pass attempts (31st), 498 rushes (3rd)
• 2012 -- 436 pass attempts (31st), 492 rushes (7th)
• 2013 -- 417 pass attempts (32nd), 505 rushes (3rd)
• 2014 -- 487 pass attempts (29th), 470 rushes (9th)

Michigan's run % on their 2023 national championship team: 40.4%

• They had the 117th-lowest pass rate of 133 qualifying teams

Greg Roman as the Bills OC:

• 2015 -- 465 pass attempts (31st), 509 rushes (2nd)
• 2016 -- 474 pass attempts (32nd), 492 rushes (2nd)

Greg Roman as the Ravens OC:

• 2019 -- 440 pass attempts (32nd), 596 rushes (1st)
• 2020 -- 406 pass attempts (32nd), 555 rushes (1st)
• 2021 -- 611 pass attempts (9th), 517 rushes (3rd)
• 2022 -- 488 pass attempts (28th), 526 rushes (7th)

The Verdict: The evidence overwhelmingly favors a balanced run/pass ratio. This means Justin Herbert may finally start winning a lot of NFL games. So while we expect on-field success, players like Herbert could have a vastly different fantasy outlook. But if there's a fantasy star to be found in Los Angeles this year, it's going to be Gus Edwards or another tailback. 

Arthur Smith – Pittsburgh

• New system? YES (Power Running WCO)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 5 seasons
• Past performance? Encouraging as an OC, disheartening as a head coach

The Situation: The Steelers have won 48 regular-season games in the last five seasons despite continued offensive struggles, particularly in the passing game. Last season, Pittsburgh finished an unacceptable 28th in points scored, and they only threw 13 passing touchdowns, which somehow improved from 2022, when they mustered just 12 touchdowns. Arthur Smith may feel like an odd choice to turn things around, given how the Falcons' offense meandered under his watch, but Pittsburgh hopes Smith can recapture the success he had as the Titans' offensive coordinator when he leveraged Derrick Henry as a ball-control offensive engine. The moving pieces don't stop there, as Pittsburgh brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to compete for the quarterback role. Early reports have veteran Wilson in the driver's seat, but no matter who wins, the Steelers' best chance of success hinges on maintaining balance and returning Pittsburgh to their glory days as a dominant rushing team.

The Verdict: Improvement is nearly assured. Don't let Arthur Smith's struggles in Atlanta cloud your enthusiasm; calling plays as a head coach is a far different ask than focusing solely on being the offensive coordinator. Smith fielded back-to-back Top-10 offenses in Tennessee, and the Steelers roster is tailor-made for a similar play style, presuming the offensive line can round into shape. Don't expect miracles from Wilson or Fields, but Ryan Tannehill was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in both seasons under Smith's watch.

Experienced with Questions: Kliff Kingsbury, Kellen Moore, and Shane Waldron

This tier features three coaches with multiple years of NFL play-calling experience, but each is coming off a disappointing season. Kliff Kingsbury was the young darling hire in Arizona, but by the end of his tenure, he and quarterback Kyler Murray were at odds, and the offense was below average (21st). Kellen Moore was viewed as a can't-miss hire in Los Angeles last year thanks to three (of four) elite seasons calling plays in Dallas; but he never got the Chargers on track (21st) and was one and done after Jim Harbaugh got hired. And Shane Waldron comes over from a three-year stint in Seattle but didn't exactly light up the scoreboard (17th) in 2023, either. However, in an era where the average NFL offensive coordinator has less than one year of experience, all three hires have better-than-average odds of success and, for fantasy managers, offer more predictability because we've seen their tendencies in action over multiple seasons.

Kliff Kingsbury – Washington

• New system? YES (Spread)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 4 seasons
• Past performance? League average

The Situation: When Josh Harris bought the Commanders last year, he opted to keep the infrastructure in place for 2023. However, a dismal 4-13 showing with a poor offense (ranked 25th) and a league-worst defense (ranked 32nd) made a complete overhaul inevitable. The first order of business for the new general manager, Adam Peters, was to hire a new coach. After considering several offensive-minded candidates, they settled on veteran Dan Quinn, a defensive mastermind.

To fix the offense, Quinn tapped Kliff Kingsbury, who most recently spent four seasons as the Arizona Cardinals' head coach and play-caller. Kingsbury has a reputation for developing quarterbacks, having coached Patrick Mahomes II at Texas Tech and championing the selection of Kyler Murray first overall in Arizona. However, a more critical eye would note that Mahomes was far more erratic and inconsistent at Texas Tech than under Andy Reid's tutelage, and Murray—while statistically impressive at times—fell out of favor with Kingsbury, and vice versa.

The hope is that Kingsbury, without the pressures of being a head coach, will be more effective in guiding rookie Jayden Daniels into the league.

The Verdict: With changes at every level, it's impossible to handicap what's in store for the Commanders this year. Jayden Daniels' eye-popping Heisman stats and elite mobility have fantasy managers assuming instant success, but that will also require Daniels to stay healthy and learn when to avoid unnecessary contact. Kliff Kingsbury's spread attack and familiarity with mobile quarterbacks make this a logical fit on paper, but nothing is certain. Few franchises have as wide a range of possible outcomes this season, but Kingsbury will need to be better than he was in Arizona (15th, on average, in points scored) for Daniels and the skill players to deliver against ADP.

Kellen Moore – Philadelphia

• New system? YES (Air Coryell)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 5 seasons
• Past performance? Elite in Dallas, disappointing in Los Angeles

The Situation: How quickly things change. The Eagles were in a shootout for the Super Bowl against the Chiefs just 18 months ago and came into last season as one of the pundits' favorites to win the championship. That success cost head coach Nick Sirianni both defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon (Arizona) and Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), and the replacements weren't up to the challenge. Defensive coordinator Sean Desai didn't make it through the season, and Brian Johnson (promoted from QB coach) was scrapped after the season. Initially, it wasn't all bad, as the Eagles started 10-1. But the rails fell off down the stretch, finishing the regular season 1-5 and suffering an embarrassing playoff loss to the Buccaneers. Sirianni tapped Kellen Moore to return the offense to elite status, which is both a bold and understandable choice. Moore only has six years of NFL coaching experience but has been a play-caller for five seasons, making him far more seasoned than most hires. In four years as the Cowboys OC, he fielded three elite units, and his only disappointing season was in 2020 when Dak Prescott missed most of the year. A year ago, Moore was among the hottest young offensive candidates for head coaching jobs, but 2023 took some of the shine off his reputation for two reasons. One, he failed to elevate the Chargers offense (21st), and two, the Cowboys offense remained elite in his stead.

The Verdict: Encouraging because the Eagles nucleus has a far longer track record of success than failure. Too many people are overreacting to a disappointing six-game stretch and not focusing on a talent-laden roster with an MVP-caliber quarterback and one of the league's best offensive lines (even without Jason Kelce). Moore's three elite years as a play-caller all came with top-10 rushing offenses, and there's no way head coach Sirianni will let Moore abandon the run, particularly with Saquon Barkley aboard. Of all the play-caller changes in 2024, the Eagles are one of the safest to bet on.

Shane Waldron – Chicago

• New system? YES (Pass Heavy WCO)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 3 seasons
• Past performance? Mixed, one top-10 season bookended by average finishes

The Situation: Bears general manager Ryan Poles made the unusual decision to keep head coach Matt Eberflus while replacing coordinators Luke Getsy and Alan Williams. They were able to lure Shane Waldron to town after the Seahawks fired Pete Carroll. Waldron spent the last three seasons calling plays in Seattle and was widely praised for turning Geno Smith's flailing career around. While both Getsy and Waldron are from the West Coast offensive coaching tree, their systems are quite different as Waldron's offenses have been among the league's most pass-heavy, while Getsy's Bears ran the ball with abandon. How much of that disparity came down to Justin Fields' (in)ability to throw is unknown, but we do know that Waldron has coached a litany of different quarterback types, from the statuesque Matthew Stafford to the mobile Russell Wilson. The great news for Waldron is he steps into a situation where rookie Caleb Williams—a generational talent—is set to take over. Williams was at his best in college working outside of structure, and Waldron's quarterbacks in Seattle left the pocket nearly 17% of the time (4th among NFL teams over that span), per ESPN. He also has three enticing receivers, including proven veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen and first-round rookie Rome Odunze; a situation that's eerily similar to what he had in Seattle with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The Verdict: There's reason to be excited, but success is far from assured. Credit the Bears for doing everything they can to set Caleb Williams up for instant success, as Waldron's versatility and rapport with different quarterbacks are exactly what they need from a play-caller. But it's worth noting the Seahawks offense only cracked the top 10 once (9th in 2022) and was league average (16th and 17th in 2021 and 2023, respectively) under Waldron. Assuming Williams is as good as advertised, and given the low bar for Bears quarterbacks throughout their storied history, Waldron doesn't need to field a top-10 offense this year to be considered successful. Fantasy managers should have plenty of enticing options on draft day, but be sure to temper expectations for what should be a balanced system with plenty of growing pains.

The Reclamation Projects: Luke Getsy and Alex Van Pelt

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but this is not a tier fans want to see their play-caller's name listed. Both Luke Getsy and Alex Van Pelt have limited experience calling NFL plays, and what little we've seen left much to be desired. Both were hired this offseason by teams with young, defensive head coaches (Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo, respectively) after their incumbent teams fired them (Chicago and Cleveland, respectively). In fairness to Van Pelt, his tenure as the Browns' offensive coordinator didn't involve play-calling, as head coach Kevin Stefanski handled those duties.

Luke Getsy – Las Vegas

• New system? YES (WCO)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, two seasons
• Past performance? Below average

The Situation: Luke Getsy's tenure in Chicago was forgettable, and Raiders fans have a right to question why he was chosen to oversee the offense in Antonio Pierce's first full season at the helm. The Bears were overtly run-heavy under his watch, which would be fine if the resulting offensive output warranted the balanced approach. While some are quick to blame Justin Fields' inability to throw the ball, it's equally fair to question whether Getsy's system and tutelage were to blame for robbing Fields of the confidence he displayed as a volume passer at Ohio State. Now Getsy steps into a situation where the team grossly misplayed the draft and failed to land a rookie passer despite telegraphing their interest and need for one.

The Verdict: The Raiders are one of the least compelling fantasy offenses to invest in this year, and Getsy's role is only part of the equation. While the Bears weren't laden with offensive talent that scared opposing defensive coaches, it's fair to say they had more compelling assets than the Raiders, who will look to either Aiden O'Connell or Gardner Minshew II at quarterback. They also let Josh Jacobs go and replaced him with Alexander Mattison (along with incumbent Zamir White). While Davante Adams remains a threat, at his age, how will he handle poor quarterbacking early on in the season? To win at the NFL level with inferior offensive talent, you need a truly gifted offensive mind capable of identifying mismatches and exploiting them in real time. If Luke Getsy is that kind of coach, we've seen no evidence of it yet.

Alex Van Pelt – New England

• New system? YES (WCO)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? Yes, one season
• Past performance? Dismal, but a small sample size

The Situation: Alex Van Pelt was fired after four seasons as the Cleveland Browns' offensive coordinator and replaced by Ken Dorsey, who was fired mid-season by the Buffalo Bills from the same role. It's hard to get excited about the Patriots' choice of Van Pelt, considering he was let go by a well-respected offensive head coach, Kevin Stefanski, who called the plays. Stefanski clearly didn't see enough from Van Pelt as a game-planner and practice organizer to keep him aboard a team that should be in AFC contention. Although Van Pelt technically has NFL play-calling experience, it's important to note it came way back in 2009 during Dick Jauron's lame-duck season with a Bills team that rotated through three starting quarterbacks. For the sake of fantasy analysis, it's fair to view Van Pelt as a de novo play-caller, and the hope is he's learned enough from Stefanski—who was remarkably adaptable given the Browns' quarterback soap opera—to bring a nuanced, versatile approach to the Patriots. Working in his favor are low expectations, as the Patriots have fallen completely from their historic highs under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Even a league-average showing, particularly if it came with positive growth from rookie quarterback Drake Maye, would be seen as a major achievement.

The Verdict: No one should feel bad for Patriots fans, who enjoyed unprecedented success over the last two decades. Those fans will need to hold onto those memories as the long and painful rebuilding process begins. Hiring Jerod Mayo as head coach when he's never been a coordinator, much less a head coach before, and combining it with an offensive coordinator who hasn't called plays in 15 years doesn't sound like a recipe for instant success. Combine that with a receiving corps that looks to be at or near the league's worst, and the deck is stacked against Van Pelt shining bright in his new role.

First-Time Head Coaches: Brian Callahan and Dave Canales

Predicting NFL coaching success is maddeningly difficult because no prototype has consistently proven to be more successful historically than others. Bill Belichick was a recycled veteran when the Patriots hired him, while Andy Reid had never been an NFL play-caller or offensive coordinator when the Eagles named him their head coach. There's no defining blueprint. With that in mind, the Panthers and Titans deserve credit for being bold in their choices and hiring first-time head coaches with limited to no play-calling experience. Is there risk? Absolutely. But no more so than any other archetype discussed around the coaching carousel.

Brian Callahan – Tennessee

• New system? YES (Pass Heavy WCO)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: The Titans parting ways with Mike Vrabel was the most shocking decision of the coaching cycle, signaling the official start of GM Ran Carthon's era as the team architect. He chose to hire Brian Callahan, a sought-after candidate, despite having no play-calling experience. Callahan has been Zac Taylor's offensive coordinator for the last five seasons, which statistically included highs (7th in 2021 and 2022) and lows (30th in 2019 and 29th in 2020). However, league pundits generally view the system as top-tier, particularly when Joe Burrow is healthy and they can operate the entire playbook. Callahan also lured his father, Bill, on board to handle the offensive line duties, which should be a boon given how poorly the Titans' line has played of late.

While Callahan and outgoing OC Tim Kelly are both rooted in the principles of the West Coast offense, their approaches are quite different. Callahan has expressed a deep appreciation for Taylor's methodology, which involves letting the OC handle the minutiae during the week, tailoring the call sheet to the quarterback's preferences late in the week, and then letting the head coach handle the tactical decisions in-game. Expect the Titans to throw a lot more under Callahan, which is evidenced by letting Derrick Henry go while signing receiver Calvin Ridley to a massive deal.

The Verdict: Callahan is hyper-prepared and bided his time over multiple cycles before ultimately deciding to take the Titans' job. But handling NFL head coaching duties for the first time is always hard, as is calling plays for the first time. Callahan will be doing both this year. While that seems risky, remember that Sean McVay was in a similar position when he took the Rams job, and that worked out quite well. Callahan's success depends largely on Will Levis' development and the offensive line's cohesion. It's also important to remember that Callahan is coming from a highly complex system. He'll need to simplify the playbook this year and teach the basics, or the honeymoon will be over quickly.

Dave Canales – Carolina

• New system? YES (Hybrid with WCO Roots)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, one season
• Past performance? Statistically below average, but well regarded

The Situation: Dave Canales was featured in this article last year when he got his first shot at being a play-caller in Tampa Bay after spending 13 seasons in Seattle working for Pete Carroll. His performance exceeded expectations, which landed him the Panthers head coaching job at only 43 years old. One thing no one can question is Canales' ability to get the most out of his quarterbacks, having helped Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, and Baker Mayfield achieve their best seasons. If he can improve Bryce Young's performance similarly, he'll have owner David Tepper satisfied for the first time since he bought the team. Canales is a self-described cerebral coach and avoids categorizing his offensive philosophy, despite it being clearly rooted in the classic West Coast approach. The Panthers' offense was awful last season (ranked 29th) but gets upgrades at tailback (J. Brooks), receiver (D. Johnson and X. Leggette), and offensive guard (D. Lewis and R. Hunt).

The Verdict: Dave Canales stepped into a Tampa Bay situation with low expectations, which served him well. Now, as the Panthers' head coach, he is perceived as a young offensive guru, yet the Buccaneers ranked a modest 20th in points scored under his guidance. Similarly, the Panthers have been so bad in recent seasons, and Bryce Young's rookie season was so disheartening that it won't take much to have everyone praising the new head coach. Getting the Panthers back to league average would be a Herculean feat. Given his long history working under one of the league's best head coaches (Carroll) and an offensive roster fortified by significant offseason maneuvering, this is a situation that could bear more fantasy fruit than the consensus expects.

The Interim Enigma: Joe Brady

Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady makes this list even though, technically, he's not a new hire. But he warrants mentioning for several reasons, not the least of which is how important Josh Allen and the Bills offense is to fantasy football. Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator after ten games last year when head coach Sean McDermott fired OC Ken Dorsey. The Bills went 6-1 down the stretch, and Josh Allen vocally expressed support for the way Brady called games, which made retaining him as offensive coordinator this year a no-brainer. But what do we really know about Brady, and how certain are we that once he puts in his own wrinkles, it'll be additive?

Joe Brady – Buffalo

• New system? MAYBE (Depends on how much Brady plans on changing with a full offseason)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? YES, 2+ seasons, including BUF last year
• Past performance? Confusing

The Situation: Joe Brady has had a whirlwind career that defies typecasting. Most football fans think of Brady as the wunderkind who led LSU to a national championship and fielded arguably the best offense in college football history. While it's true he had a major hand in LSU's success, most forget he wasn't the offensive coordinator or play-caller (that was Steven Ensminger). He parlayed that single season at LSU into the offensive coordinator role in Carolina, which was a disaster. The Panthers ranked 24th in points scored in 2020 and ranked 25th in 2021 through 12 weeks, when Brady was relieved of his play-calling duties. He licked his wounds and landed as the QB coach in Buffalo, replacing Dorsey, who got promoted to OC when Brian Daboll left for New York.

Where things get odd is deciphering the Bills' late-season turnaround with Brady calling plays. No one can argue with a 6-1 record after the team—a preseason AFC favorite—had struggled to a 6-5 record under Dorsey. Ultimately, what changed was fairly simple: Brady remained committed to running the ball regardless of the game script. Dorsey fell in love with the passing game and would too often abandon the run, which led to turnovers and predictable play patterns. Brady dramatically altered the run/pass ratio, and that seemed to fix things, even though statistically, the offense was already putting up a ton of points.

 2023 Bills Offense: Ken Dorsey vs. Joe Brady

The Verdict: The best way to succeed as an NFL play-caller is to have great players, particularly elite quarterbacks. Just ask Brian Daboll how much harder it is to look like an offensive genius when you have Daniel Jones and Tommy Devito under center instead of Josh Allen. To that end, as long as Josh Allen stays healthy, the Bills' window remains open. Given how well the team executed with Brady's balanced offensive approach, it stands to reason we'll see more of the same in 2024. The team's willingness to let Stefon Diggs go, given how poorly he played under Brady's cadence, further cements that what we saw in the final seven games of 2023 is how the 2024 season will start. But let's not forget that Ken Dorsey's offense in 2022 was a mirror image of Brian Daboll's, but things fell apart as Dorsey got more comfortable with his own approach, leading to more predictability and passing imbalance. Joe Brady is a passing game specialist; it's what put him on the map at LSU. Are we sure Brady—now that he has the job full-time—won't change the playbook? And if he does change it, are we sure it'll be as efficient? I think Josh Allen's floor is high enough that we won't view Brady as a complete whiff as the play-caller, but I'm also not sure we can pencil in 27.0 points per game this year, throwing the ball just 48% of the time, either. Fantasy managers should take heart; Allen remained an elite fantasy option in both Dorsey's and Brady's care.

Collegiate Uncertainties: Liam Coen and Ryan Grubb

Neither Liam Coen nor Ryan Grubb have ever called NFL plays, but both got their newest jobs in the NFL thanks to their success as collegiate play-callers. Coen has more NFL experience, having spent four seasons in Los Angeles with Sean McVay, and he served as the offensive coordinator in 2022, between stints as the University of Kentucky's OC in 2021 and 2023. Coen's first season with UK propelled Will Levis into the NFL draft picture, but his return to the Wildcats last year wasn't as successful (58th among 133 qualifying teams). Grubb is a true NFL newcomer, having spent 19 seasons moving up the collegiate ranks, primarily as part of Kalen DeBoer's staff at Sioux Falls, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State, and Washington. Grubb reached higher highs than Coen as Washington finished 13th offensively last year and reached the National Championship Game.

Liam Coen – Tampa Bay

• New system? NO (Hybrid with WCO Roots)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: Coen's return to the Rams as OC was supposed to set him up as the next in a long line of McVay assistants who get NFL head coaching opportunities, but instead, he oddly left after one forgettable season and returned to the University of Kentucky. UK's failure to match the 2021 heights didn't deter the Buccaneers from targeting Coen as Dave Canales' replacement, which is as much about continuity as anything. Coen and Canales' systems are quite similar, with Coen acknowledging that many of the schemes, routes, and terms won't change—music to the players' ears. As to what will change, Coen plans on implementing more motion and utilizing 3-WR sets more frequently. Importantly, Baker Mayfield worked with Coen in Los Angeles two seasons ago, and that played a big part in the hiring decision.

The Verdict: The Buccaneers' offense finished 20th in 2023, which is hardly cause for celebration—except it was actually a marked improvement from 2022 when Tom Brady's offense ranked just 25th. The question is whether Tampa Bay should be happy if Coen sustains last year's output, or if there's reason to think they can further progress. Coen's college success was limited, and his odd one-year stint as the Rams OC adds further reason to look at this hire skeptically.

Ryan Grubb – Seattle

• New system? YES (Spread)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: Ryan Grubb is one of the hardest hires to evaluate due to his entire coaching career being rooted in college football, where he has thrived using spread and Air Raid concepts in an aggressive passing attack. While these concepts have been successfully integrated into the NFL, there are key differences—such as the distance of the hash marks—that make a seamless transition challenging to predict. Additionally, it's unclear how much of Grubb's success can be attributed to his own abilities versus the influence of Kalen DeBoer, who has been Grubb's mentor throughout his career. The Seahawks must hope that Grubb's success stems from his talent for identifying and exploiting mismatches, rather than merely force-feeding his system regardless of the game script.

The Verdict: Make no mistake, this is a total crapshoot. Head coach Mike Macdonald is a first-time NFL head coach, and he picked the least experienced option among the fourteen new play-callers. What Grubb and DeBoer accomplished in recent seasons, culminating in Washington's explosive push into the National Championship, is exciting, but how it translates to the NFL is a much harder puzzle to solve. The good news is that the Seahawks' offensive strength lies with their trio of receivers, similar to the Huskies, and Geno Smith possesses many of the traits that vaulted Michael Penix into Heisman contention. However, those surface-level similarities aren't enough to bet heavily on success. Tread carefully until we see if Grubb is genuinely scheme-versatile.

Their First Starring Roles: Klint Kubiak and Zac Robinson

Our final two play-callers are ready for their first starring roles. Zac Robinson is the latest in a long line of Sean McVay assistants who have leveraged his mentorship into advanced roles on other teams. Robinson gets his first shot at play-calling after spending five seasons in Los Angeles, including the last two as the team's passing game coordinator. If history is any indication, Robinson has a significant opportunity to excel and quickly advance to a head-coaching position. However, it's equally possible that Robinson may struggle to replicate his mentor's success. The spotlight is on him to prove that he can stand on his own merits. You might wonder why Klint Kubiak is included here, given his previous experience calling NFL plays in Minnesota and Denver. However, neither of those situations allowed him to truly install his own system. In Minnesota, he served as Mike Zimmer's sixth OC and followed directly in his father Gary's footsteps. The following season in Denver, he was the passing game coordinator and was handed play-calling duties for the final eight games after Justin Outten was demoted following a historically bad showing. His hiring in New Orleans marks the first time he gets to implement a system uniquely his own, signaling a significant shift from the Saints' nearly 20-year adherence to the Erhardt-Perkins system.

Klint Kubiak – New Orleans

• New system? YES (Hybrid with WCO Roots)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? Yes, one and a half seasons for two different teams
• Past performance? Encouraging, particularly under challenging circumstances

The Situation: Klint Kubiak has already amassed 10 NFL seasons and has been around NFL locker rooms his entire life as the son of long-time coach Gary Kubiak. Gary Kubiak was Mike Shanahan's right-hand man, and both are credited with evolving Bill Walsh's West Coast offense into a more balanced scheme that relies on zone-blocking, pre-snap motion, and heavy play-action passing. Kyle Shanahan took his father's system and turned it into the new gold standard. More than half the league now runs a system stemming from Shanahan's. While the roots and terminology are evocative of the classic WCO, it has moved far beyond, integrating different run-blocking schemes, less reliance on play-action, more spread and shotgun usage, and a broader route tree. What version of the system Kubiak intends to implement in New Orleans remains to be seen, but the personnel seem well-suited to the change. Kubiak fielded the 14th-best offense in Minnesota (2021) with a balanced approach (11th in pass attempts, 16th in rush attempts), capitalizing on veteran Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and young Justin Jefferson. Despite a respectable showing, Kubiak was let go when Mike Zimmer was fired, leading him to take a job with the Broncos. He couldn't have predicted how dysfunctional the Nathaniel Hackett situation would be (Hackett was fired 15 games into his first season), but under the hood, Kubiak did some impressive work. The Broncos ranked dead last (32nd) with Justin Outten calling plays, but raised their output to 19.5 points per game (22nd) under Kubiak. Now, Kubiak takes over a Saints offense that finished 9th last year, which puts tremendous pressure on him to elevate New Orleans into elite territory.

The Verdict: Be wary of unreasonably lofty expectations. New play-callers are usually hired for one of two reasons: 1) the incumbent was successful enough to get a head coaching job elsewhere, or 2) the incumbent was bad enough that wholesale changes were justified. In the Saints' case, it's neither, as New Orleans was 9th in scoring last year. However, outgoing OC Pete Carmichael too often abandoned the run (21st in rushing yards), and head coach Dennis Allen wants more balance to help put his defense in a better position. With nearly all the skill players returning for an encore, Kubiak will be expected to do more than keep the ship steady. Can this unit find yet another level? Does Derek Carr have a top-5 offense within him?

Zac Robinson – Atlanta

• New system? YES (Hybrid with WCO Roots)
• Experience as an NFL play-caller? NO
• Past performance? Unknown

The Situation: Zac Robinson is a tabula rasa, having spent five seasons with Sean McVay but with zero play-calling experience. However, based on the success of Zac Taylor, Kevin O'Connell, Matt LaFleur, and Shane Waldron, the Falcons hope they've found the play-caller who can capitalize on the early draft-day investments made in Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London. Robinson was an obvious choice as new head coach Raheem Morris knew him well from their time together in Los Angeles. The good news is Morris' defensive leanings will ensure there won't be too many chefs in the kitchen, and Robinson will have a savvy veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins to help ignite the passing game after outgoing coach Arthur Smith's struggles over the last few seasons.

The Verdict: Just because Robinson learned under McVay doesn't guarantee success. Not every Bill Walsh protégé worked out. Despite running the same playbook, most of Andy Reid's assistants couldn't match his prowess. Even given the same ingredients, not every chef is going to cook a Michelin-star dish. Nothing is guaranteed, but you can't blame the Falcons' management for buying into Robinson, who is seen as a good communicator, an effective teacher, and someone willing to adjust his playbook to suit the talent at hand. If Kirk Cousins is healthy, his presence alone assures a marked improvement. Cousins, combined with Robinson and a wealth of young talent, makes the Falcons one of the trendier units to target in drafts this year.

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