Marquise Brown: Is He the Key to Unlock the Chiefs' Deep Passing?

Photo: Imagn Images

He hasn’t produced much in his career so far. But Marquise Brown could be the skeleton key that unlocks the Chiefs offense.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been without a genuine deep threat for the past two years, requiring Patrick Mahomes II to adjust his playing style. The rise in two-high-safety formations from opposing defenses has necessitated Mahomes to adopt a more conservative approach. An explosive early-career passing attack has become a methodical dink-and-dunk march down the field. Despite this change in offensive philosophy, Mahomes has led the team to consecutive Super Bowls and secured an MVP title. However, the recent acquisitions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy in the offseason suggest a shift in strategy. The Chiefs hope to restore Mahomes' ability to throw the long ball again.

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Recent changes to the Chiefs

Since taking over as the starter in 2018, Mahomes has seen his intended air yards per pass attempt dip every season. And every year since 2019, his completion percentage has gone up. Mahomes is a savant at creating plays outside of the structure of the offense. His highlight reel is full of him spinning out of the pocket and evading defenders to buy time before throwing a frozen rope to a receiver. But what we’ve seen in recent years is a more mature passer, someone willing to take what the defenses give him. And even though it has worked in the “Win” column, Mahomes is now six years removed from that magical 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown season in 2018.

The Chiefs have been anchored by an elite defense run by Steve Spagnola over the last few seasons. But this offseason, L'Jarius Sneed and Willie Gay Jr Jr. walked in free agency. Rather than addressing those holes, the Chiefs signed Marquise Brown and Irv Smith. They extended Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. They spent their first three draft picks on offense, including a trade-up in the first round for speedster Xavier Worthy. Spagnola and the defense have propped the team up in recent years. But the apparent vision is that they are tipping the scales back to Andy Reid and Mahomes.

What the post-Tyreek Hill Chiefs looked like

The passing game last year ran through two players: Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Rice’s average target depth was 4.8 yards, 102nd out of 103 qualifying receivers. There was a clear delineation of how wide receivers were used last year. In addition to Rice, Justyn Ross, Richie James, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney all averaged less than ten air yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson averaged 17.7 and 17.5 yards, respectively. Of those 103 qualifying receivers, those receivers ranked 4th and 5th in target depth.

That’s a lot of numbers, but the takeaway is that the Chiefs used Valdes-Scantling and Watson extremely deep downfield. At the same time, all the other receivers typically operated within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. And that theme was the same in 2022. Receivers ran short or deep routes, and no one had the elasticity to do both. In 2022 and 2023, their deep threats struggled.

Understanding how the Chiefs operate is essential before assessing Marquise Brown’s outlook. As mentioned, they’ve severely lacked a player who can play both short and deep.

Marquise Brown has never had a season with an average target depth below 11.0 yards.

Rashee Rice has never had a game with an average target depth above 7.6 yards.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) March 25, 2024

And in steps Marquise Brown…

Brown ran a blistering 4.27-second 40-yard dash at his Oklahoma Pro Day in 2019. While he has the speed to blow the top off of defenses, he also has the skill set to win at every level of the field as a route runner. His size and speed give the perception that he is solely a downfield burner who plays outside the numbers. But he took over 20% of his snaps out of the slot last year. Exactly 50 percent of his targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and precisely 50 percent went beyond 10 yards. 47.9 percent of his targets were thrown between the numbers. Brown’s versatility is shocking, especially to people who watched him play in college. Although he isn’t at the same talent level, his skill set and usage are similar to Tyreek Hill’s.

As Hill developed in Kansas City, his target depth slowly decreased yearly but always stayed in a similar range.

• 2018: 14.8
• 2019: 12.9
• 2020: 12.9
• 2021: 10.4

Despite not having a single wide receiver and between a 10-17-yard target depth last year, that’s exactly where Hill was every year with Kansas City.

And Marquise Brown’s target depth numbers over the years are almost identical…

• 2019: 11.0
• 2020: 12.9
• 2021: 11.1
• 2022: 11.3
• 2023: 11.9