Josh Jacobs: Will LaFleur Make Him a Bellcow?

Photo: Imagn Images

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This offseason, the NFL's running back landscape underwent a seismic shift, and many of the league's most proven veterans ended up in new places.

Veteran Running Backs on New Teams in 2024 (Projected to be RB1 or Committee Lead)

Josh Jacobs' agent won the headline war because his client was the only free agent tailback to secure a deal of at least four years and over $40 million. However, as you know, headline numbers don't really matter in a league where players can be cut at a moment's notice. The only thing that matters is the fully guaranteed money. To that end, Jacobs actually signed a one-year, $12.5 million deal to become the Packers' new starter.

While the contract value isn't indicative of a long-term commitment, the decision to let Aaron Jones go cements Jacobs as the Packers' No. 1 running back in 2024. The question is, will he get the workload he needs to deliver against his lofty ADP?

Sharing the Rock: A Core Matt LaFleur Belief

We live in an era of running back committees. Very few running backs get an every-down workload anymore. But Coach LaFleur takes sharing the workload to another level. Whether it's an Aaron Rodgers-led offense or, more recently, Jordan Love's show, LaFleur believes in leveraging the entire roster and finds spots for everyone in sub-package roles.

Here is a look at the Packers running backs under LaFleur. Since the table's a bit busy, here's a key to the column headers:

• RUSH = Number of rushes for the player listed
• RUYDS = Rushing yards
• RBRUSHATT = The team's total rushing attempts by the RBs for the season
• TEAMRUSHATT = The total rushing attempts for all players for the season
• RBRUSH% = The % of rushing attempts the listed player got of all the RBs on the team
• TEAMRUSH% = The % of rushing attempts the listed player got of all the team's attempts

In five seasons, Aaron Jones is the only tailback with more than 50% of the team's rushing attempts, and that only happened once—in 2021. Jones accounted for 66.3% of the running back carries that season. He's also the only Packer under LaFleur's watch to have over 50% of the running back carries—in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

How does that compare to Josh Jacobs' usage with the Raiders?

In five seasons, Jacobs never got less than 60.7% of the running back workload and peaked at an astounding 89.9% in his monstrous 2022 campaign. In total, he accounted for 69.5% of the Raiders' running back carries and 60.7% of the team's carries during his tenure.

What about the size of the pie? Historically speaking, they're roughly the same size.

LaFleur-Era Packers (2019-2023)

• Average Team Rushing Attempts: 439.4
• Average Running Back Rushing Attempts: 381.2

Jacobs-Era Raiders (2019-2023)

• Average Team Rushing Attempts: 429.8
• Average Running Back Rushing Attempts: 375.4

With the same total available workload, it's critical that LaFleur gives Jacobs a larger role than he's ever given another tailback. Is that likely?

It's not smart to bet against coaching tendencies. Is it possible LaFleur will utilize Jacobs more than he used his prior options? Sure. But I wouldn't bet on it until we see it. I'll give you two other reasons why it's unlikely: AJ Dillon and MarShawn Lloyd.

AJ Dillon is a Thing, Even if We Don't Want Him to Be

AJ Dillon never became an NFL star. When the Packers drafted him in the second round of the 2020 draft, he was supposed to be the perfect compliment to Aaron Jones--a new incarnation of Thunder & Lightning. It didn't quite work out that way, although he did play a significant role each season (see above). Where things get worrisome for Jacobs is that Green Bay opted to re-sign Dillon this offseason. Most expected Dillon would seek a job as a No. 2 elsewhere in free agency, but after testing the market, he rejoined Green Bay on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. Dillon had at least 45% of the running back carries each of the last three seasons, and he's back. If LaFleur wanted to make Jacobs a true workhorse, why re-sign Dillon?

MarShawn Lloyd is an Every Down Option, Too

Despite signing Jacobs and re-signing Dillon, the Packers drafted Lloyd in the third round. Lloyd comes from USC and was graded as one of the best athletes in the running back class (9.29 Relative Athletic Score). What got many excited was Lloyd's abilities as a route runner and receiver. His college film points to a player who can play in any down and distance, but it wouldn't surprise anyone if he's used primarily as a third-down and passing-down specialist initially. Unfortunately for Jacobs, he's not viewed as a great receiver, so we shouldn't assume he'll step into a target-heavy role with the Packers.

The Receiving Game is another Risk Factor

Just as we looked at the Packers' and Raiders' rushing tendencies and found commonality, their passing tendencies and positional distribution are also eerily similar.

LaFleur-Era Packers (2019-2023)

• Average Team Receiving Targets: 567.2
• Average Running Back Targets: 112.8

Jacobs-Era Raiders (2019-2023)

• Average Team Rushing Attempts: 569.0
• Average Running Back Rushing Attempts: 116.8

Josh Jacobs' Receiving Stats (2019-2023)

Jacobs accounted for 43.5% of the Raiders RB targets during his tenure and just under 9% of the total passing targets. That compares to Aaron Jones, who routinely garnered approximately 12% of the passing targets.

But before you get excited about Jacobs seeing his receiving role increase, remember that he's not as natural a receiver as Jones.

But Isn't the Offensive Line an Upgrade?

The perception is that the Packers offensive line is perennially good while the Raiders line play is less consistent. But a glance at PFF's run-blocking grades paints a different picture.

Pro Football Focus Offensive Line Ranks, Run Blocking (2019-2023)

You'll note the Raiders graded out as the better run-blocking unit in both 2022 and 2023. While the 2024 Packers line may ultimately prove better, there's no reason to assume that's the case entering the season.

Josh Jacobs' Recent Stats

Josh Jacobs' 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

Don't misconstrue this analysis as a condemnation of Josh Jacobs. He's an incredibly talented, hard-nosed, multi-faceted running back. And the Packers front office willingly let go of Aaron Jones--a talented player in his own right--to prioritize signing Jacobs. And while he's really playing on a one-year, $12 million contract, the team did sign him to a 4-year deal such that it would be easy for both sides to decide to run it back in 2025 if things go well this year. But the fact the team didn't commit guaranteed money to Jacobs long-term is something you need to consider, particularly paired with the decisions to re-sign AJ Dillon and draft MarShawn Lloyd. The Raiders offensive play distribution is remarkably similar to the Packers, and both teams have middle-of-the-pack run-blocking lines. All these issues are enough to urge caution on draft day. In an era of running back-by-committee, Jacobs doesn't need 250+ rushing attempts to be an every-week fantasy starter. And the talent and situation warrant drafting him as a high-end RB2 with confidence. But if he starts sliding up into the RB1 range, you're better off looking elsewhere.