The Consensus Top Dog
Josh Allen has been one of the best fantasy players at any position for the last four seasons. He has finished as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback three times and came in a close second in the other year. His dual-threat abilities set him apart in an era of mobile quarterbacks, and he once again ranks as the top option across the industry.
Allen is the consensus QB1 across the industry. He is our consensus QB1, as well, with 9 of 13 staffers ranking him QB1. One staffer ranks him QB2, two more (me included) rank him QB3, and one ranks him QB4. No one ranks him lower. His ADP is QB1, and he is 27th overall.
Is History on His Side?
Josh Allen is in rarified air. He's been a top-2 fantasy quarterback in four consecutive seasons, and if our 2024 rankings are accurate, he's set to make it a five-year streak. For context, I looked at the top-3 fantasy quarterbacks in each of the last 25 seasons.
Top-3 Fantasy (Points per Game) QBs (2009-2023, Minimum 8 Games)
| Player | Top-3 Finishes | Longest Top-3 Streak | Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 5 | 2008-2012, 2014, 2016 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 4 | 2020-2023 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 3 | 2002, 2004-2006 |
| Drew Brees | 5 | 3 | 2008, 2009, 2011-2013 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 2 | 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 2 | 2002, 2023 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 2 | 2000, 2001, 2003 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 2 | 2014, 2015, 2017 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 2 | 2007, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2021 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 2017 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 1 | 2014 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 1 | 2007, 2009, 2018 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | 2000 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 1 | 2015 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 2005 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 1 | 2017 |
| Deshaun Watson | 1 | 1 | 2019 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 1 | 2021 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 1 | 19,992,001 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 1 | 2020 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 1 | 2019, 2023 |
| Marc Bulger | 1 | 1 | 2005 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 1 | 2016, 2018 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 2019 |
| Michael Vick | 3 | 1 | 2002, 2006, 2010 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1 | 2013 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | 3 | 1 | 2018, 2020, 2022 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 1 | 2004, 2006, 2013 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 1 | 2008 |
| Rich Gannon | 1 | 1 | 2002 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1 | 1 | 2012 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 1 | 1999 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 1 | 1999, 2003 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 1 | 2007 |
Key Takeaways
- Aaron Rodgers is the only player with a five-year consecutive streak and the overall leader with seven top-3 finishes.
- Tom Brady had six top-3 finishes but never did it for more than two consecutive years.
- Drew Brees achieved five top-3 finishes, with his longest streak being three years.
- Josh Allen is already alone in second place with his four-year streak.
While rare, it's not impossible for Allen to deliver another top-3 finish in 2024.
Life without Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs is now a Houston Texan. Regardless of what you think about Diggs in 2024 and beyond, it's impossible to overstate how valuable he was to Josh Allen during his 4-year run atop the fantasy rankings.
Stefon Diggs Stats and % of Bills Passing Game (2020-2023)
| Year | Gms | Tgts | Recs | Yds | YPR | TDs | %Tgts | %Recs | %Yds | %TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 16 | 166 | 127 | 1,535 | 12.1 | 8 | 27.9% | 31.0% | 33.2% | 20.0% |
| 2021 | 17 | 164 | 103 | 1,225 | 11.9 | 10 | 25.0% | 24.8% | 28.6% | 27.8% |
| 2022 | 16 | 154 | 108 | 1,429 | 13.2 | 11 | 26.8% | 29.9% | 34.1% | 31.4% |
| 2023 | 17 | 160 | 107 | 1,183 | 11.1 | 8 | 27.6% | 27.8% | 28.5% | 27.6% |
| Average | 16.5 | 161 | 111 | 1,343 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 26.8% | 28.4% | 31.1% | 26.7% |
Diggs was an alpha in the true sense, commanding nearly 27% of Josh Allen's targets, passing touchdowns, and over 31% of his passing yards. But the 2023 stat line hides a mysterious falloff in Diggs' performance late in the season.
- Weeks 1-9: WR4 with 70 receptions, 834 yards, and 7 touchdowns
- Weeks 10-18: WR45 with 37 receptions, 349 yards and one touchdown
The question we need answered is how Diggs' drop-off affected Josh Allen's fantasy value. The answer? Not at all.
- Weeks 1-9: QB2 with 2,423 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 9 interceptions, 233 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns
- Weeks 10-18: QB1 with 1,883 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 9 interceptions, 291 rushing yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns
Allen remained atop the fantasy standings (in fact, he went from QB2 to QB1), although how he got there changed. His passing effectiveness fell off considerably, but his rushing touchdowns spiked enough to keep him atop the rankings.
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