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Not Everyone Is a Sleeper or a Bust

Fantasy managers are desperate to identify value, which works in both directions. Finding sleepers who vastly outperform their average draft position is always the goal. Avoiding players who are being drafted too early can be equally valuable. But the less-than-sexy truth is that quite a few players are drafted in the appropriate slot given a fair assessment of their most likely range of outcomes.

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Before publishing my first set of projections this season, I pegged Jayden Reed as a potential "must draft." After a promising rookie season where he outperformed teammates including Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, he seemed likely to cement his status as the Packers' No. 1 receiver this year.

However, this is why the discipline of detailed projections can pay dividends. Once I started building out my Packers model and delving deeper into the team's offensive strategy, play-calling, and touch distribution, I came away with a different view of Reed. To be clear, I still expect him to lead the Packers receiving group; if he stays healthy, he should be the top fantasy scorer. But the Packers are one of the most balanced teams in the league, and Reed needs a substantial increase in his workload to project a top-24 season credibly. He's a WR3 with upside, precisely where his ADP puts him.

A Promising Rookie Season, with Caveats

Jayden Reed was selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The 5-foot-11, 187-pound receiver out of Michigan State was a four-year contributor (including his rookie season at Western Michigan), amassing 203 receptions for 2,866 yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite a high draft pedigree, fantasy managers weren't particularly excited about his prospects as a rookie (ADP: WR70) for several reasons.

1. Quarterback Jordan Love wasn't viewed highly (ADP: QB26)
2. Christian Watson (ADP: WR20) was a preseason favorite after his promising rookie season in 2022
3. Romeo Doubs (ADP: WR53) was seen as the likely No. 2 in Green Bay

As we now know, things went far better in Green Bay than preseason expectations implied. Jordan Love had a breakout season, finishing at the QB7 (on a per-game basis), and Reed played a big part in the team's success.

Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers, 2023

Reed led the receiving corps in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns (tied with Doubs). He averaged 0.331 receiving fantasy points per snap, far outpacing his teammates. He also ran 11 times for 119 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Reed finished as the WR26 (PPR).

To be clear, there's a LOT to like about Jayden Reed based on his rookie excellence. So if a rookie finishes WR26 and has an ADP of WR35 the following season, what's not to like? 

Caveat No. 1 -- His rushing stats were probably unsustainable

Rushing stats count and can be a big part of a receiver's value -- ask Deebo Samuel Sr. However, very few receivers have a defined role as rushing threats, and relying on small sample sizes is unwise. Reed rushed for 119 yards and scored two touchdowns on 11 rushing attempts. History tells us he's unlikely to match that mark again.

Receivers with at least 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in a season (2014-2023)

As the table shows, there have only been ten instances of a receiver netting 100-plus rushing yards and two-plus rushing touchdowns, including three last year (Reed, Samuel, and CeeDee Lamb). Samuel has done it three times, and Tyreek Hill has done it twice. But you'll note Hill's instances came four years apart. No other receiver managed to repeat the feat. It's exceedingly hard.