Ivan Pace Jr.: Will he Rebound in 2024?

Photo: USA Today Sports

There are a lot of things that make football the complex sport that it is. You have a team of Alpha-male types working toward the same goal. It is up to the coaching staff to determine how to make this cohesive and come up with any needed changes if the goal isn't met. The offseason is normally the biggest example of a team doing this, and it usually includes adding and subtracting players from the roster. Some players benefit, others, not so much. So, what does it say about a player who wasn't subtracted and whose position group wasn't actively improved? For Ivan Pace Jr., It means we are on the verge of a rebound and maybe even a breakthrough into the upper echelon of IDP fantasy football.

Who is Ivan Pace Jr.?

Ivan Pace Jr. was an undrafted free agent from the University of Cincinnati who was a preseason and early regular season darling for the Vikings. It is one thing to make an NFL team as an undrafted free agent; it is a completely different story to get starter reps!  Right out of the gate, we saw Pace have back-to-back eight-tackle games and a half a sack in Week 2 to boot. Afterward, we saw adversity strike, and Pace lost a share of snaps. Some may think this was due to poor performance on the field, and there may be some truth to that, but there's also more to unpack there. We saw the emergence of safeties Joshua Metellus and Camryn Bynum in this defense. Factor in that they also have an established star at the position in Harrison Smith, and we have a crowded defense. Due to this emergence, we saw more in-the-box usage from the safeties. Add in Jordan Hicks's level of play at the linebacker position, and we saw a dip in production, snap count, and, most importantly, fantasy points for young Pace.  

A Second Chance?

While it seemed as though Pace had fallen far from the favors of the coaching staff, as fate would have it, the opportunity came back to Pace when Jordan Hicks went down with an injury. Because of this, Pace played in 100% of snaps in five of the last seven games of the season, where he amassed 9+ tackles in six of those games. He had two sacks in that span as well, showing us that when given some opportunity, he can affect the game in more ways than just tackling, but with the sample size as limited as it was, it's tough to say how frequently he will impact a game like this. If this end-of-the-season trend continues, Pace will be an elite-level player sooner than we think, even if it is based on volume. There's reason to believe that we will see this trend continue, and a key component in IDP fantasy football impacts this more than one would think.

A New Opportunity?

To start this article, I discussed how some players benefit from subtraction. Well, the Vikings moved on from Jordan Hicks opening the door for an opportunity but failed to fill this with players outside the organization (spare me the Kamu Grugier-Hill talk, please). We saw how Pace performed when Hicks wasn't factored into the defensive game plan; he was a solid performer. He's now a full year into his playing career and has an opportunity to start another year for this defense as an undrafted player. Pace will be the main man in the middle alongside journeyman Blake Cashman. The team invested in a pass rusher Dallas Turner in the draft, which should signal that they want to speed up the opposing team's offense. In doing so, this should force them to make quick, short passes, opening a myriad of opportunities for tackles by the second-level linebackers, led by Ivan Pace Jr. When he gets the snaps that a starting linebacker gets, he has produced stats that lead to fantasy wins.

When to Target Ivan Pace Jr.?

So, we know who we should target, but now the ultimate value question. When to target Pace in your drafts/leagues?

In redraft, he is likely a free player who can be acquired in the late rounds. I wouldn't concern myself too much with getting him early, but I would target him when you are looking for the depth players or sleepers. I would put him high on that list.

I wouldn't be shocked if he's valued significantly higher in dynasty leagues. He's only 23 years old and has a huge opportunity to be a focal point on a defense that is in dire need of a star performer (Harrison Smith can't do this forever), and where better to start on an NFL defense than the middle linebacker? If you're a dynasty manager who already has Pace rostered, I'd be hard-pressed to let him go but understand his value will decline if he fails to deliver this season.

Closing

Ivan Pace Jr. had no business being a starter last season, let alone being on the team! His will and determination showed the Vikings last season that not only was he worthy of a roster spot but opportunities in the games as well. This season, he comes in as a comfortable player cemented in a role that can and will score points for IDP fantasy football managers. The inside middle linebacker is the perfect position to build a dynasty or redraft team. It is also the best place to get that sleeper you knew about before your buddies! That's why we are all here, right? To win the draft, offseason, and your LEAGUE! Ivan Pace Jr is just one more player who will break out this season and prove that he wasn't a fluke player that landed on a roster late but that he is a starter-worthy talent for your IDP rosters.  

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