Is This Real? Week 16

Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.

Trey McBride's Touchdown Drought

Trey McBride's season has been a tremendous success.  He struggled mightily as a rookie but broke out after Zach Ertz suffered a season-ending injury in 2023.  From week 8 on, McBride ran a route on 84% of his team's dropbacks, was targeted on 27% of his routes, and accounted for 28% of the team's targets, all high-level figures at the tight end position. 

He entered 2024 with a changing offense.  Kyler Murray returned for a full season after missing the start of 2023 with a torn ACL.  Additionally, the Arizona Cardinals selected Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

The major statistical question entering the season was whether his low 6.1 aDOT was that of a check-down merchant susceptible to being crowded out by a true WR1.  McBride backed up his production in 2024, demonstrating he is one of the best tight ends in fantasy football.  His aDOT remains low at 6.6, but his role in the offense has grown to 91% route participation while maintaining a similar target rate of 26%. 

McBride's production also jumped in yards per route run up to 2.27, the second highest at the position behind only George Kittle.  McBride's 15.0 PPG ranks 3^rd at the position, which is remarkable considering McBride has 0 receiving touchdowns on the season. 

Overall, McBride has 89 receptions.  The most receptions by a player without a receiving touchdown was Diontae Johnson, who had 86 receptions without a touchdown in 2022. 

Verdict: This is largely the result of bad variance.  On the season, McBride has 5.8 expected receiving touchdowns, the fourth highest at the position.  This is a small number of plays this happens, so there can be variance in a small sample size.