Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.

Is Cade Otton an Elite TE?

Cade Otton has been a high-level producer over the past month.  Since week 5, Otton has averaged 15.7 PPG, which ranks fourth in points per game.  This correlates clearly with the injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. 

For example, in the past four weeks, Otton has 10, 11, 10, and 7 targets.  The fact his volume is up is clear.  The question is whether this is a new normal for Otton. 

While Godwin is out for the season, Mike Evans is expected to return.  Otton has dominated one of the weakest wide receiver corps in the league, which should get stronger with Evans returning and making Otton's target competition stronger. 

In the past four weeks, Otton has been targeted on 23% of his routes.  This is a jump from 15% in the first six weeks of the season.  In fact, his first six weeks were clearly in line with his 2023 production when he was targeted on 13% of his routes. 

The past four weeks have also seen an increase in his production when targeted, jumping to 7.7 yards per target from his career average of 6.5.  In other words, Otton has benefited from a bigger role and rewarded his team.

Another way to gauge Otton's season is to grade more specific film grades. To this end, Otton has a 54.7 PFF grade in his career, which is a 31st-percentile performance. His grade this season is 62.2, and he is 19th among PFF qualifiers. 

Verdict: This all points to the conclusion that Otton was dealt a tough hand with Tampa Bay's receiver injuries, which he has stepped up for.  Yet this jump has left Otton in the good to very good range of the position, instead of the elites.  At a flat position, players that jump in price tend to be sell candidates, especially if he is getting top 6 valuations as he has been in some marketplaces.