Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward. Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.
Is Kyren Williams fading?
In the first six weeks of the season, Williams scored 19.8 points per game, which ranked 4th in per game scoring. Over the past three weeks, Kyren Williams has averaged 17.6 points per game, which ranks 12th in per game scoring during that span.
While the drop makes Williams blend into the position, he has one of the most solid roles in the league. During the past three weeks, Williams ranks third at the position in expected points per game (19.8). Williams has underperformed his expectations, with 242 rushing yards compared to 273 expected rushing yards based on his carries. Additionally, Williams has 2 touchdowns and an expectation of 2.5.
While his production is down relative to the position generally, Williams has a great role for the stretch run. Williams has by far the highest snap share at the position (88%) while also ranking first share of his team's rushing attempts (78%) and route participation (65%), albeit by a smaller margin than his snap share.
As unlikely as it may be for his college production profile to result in an elite, high-level role in an offense, Williams has found that role. This is despite the team selecting Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL. Additionally, the team has a dropback rate 4% under expectation on the season, demonstrated a strong commitment to getting the ball into Williams's hands, even with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the lineup.
Verdict: Despite blending in among running backs in the past three weeks, Kyren Williams has one of the best situations in the entire league. He remains a difference-making player and a potential target for teams looking to increase their ceiling during the stretch run.
Khalil Shakir as a top 20 option?
Over the past three weeks, Khalil Shakir has scored 14.8 PPG, which ranks 19th at the wide receiver position. He has done this while the Buffalo offense has onboarded new acquisition Amari Cooper. Cooper had a smaller role in week 7 before a starter-level workload in week 8. Then, Cooper missed week 9 with a wrist injury.
Shakir managed to emerge from this situation better than before Cooper's arrival when he scored 11.4 points per game, which is a counterinitiative outcome.
Over the past three weeks, Shakir has run routes on 72% of the team's dropbacks, similar to his 68% role in the first six weeks of the season. His target rate has jumped from 20% to 28%, and his target share has jumped from 20% to 24%.
While Shakir is playing slightly more, he is also being targeted more frequently on his routes. The oddity of his production is his role has changed. Before Cooper's arrival, Shakir had an average depth of target (aDOT) of a paltry 5.2. During the season, that would rank as the second shallowed aDOT of any receiver with 70 or more routes, ahead of only Wan'Dale Robinson (4.2). Since Cooper's arrival, Shakir's aDOT is 0.7, which puts him at a league-low of 2.9 for the season.
Shakir has become a high-target-rate gadget player. This has resulted in Shakir tying for the most catches in the league since week 7 (22), helping him significantly in PPR scoring formats. In the past three weeks, Shakir is expected to receive 0.5 receiving touchdowns and has 0, a dismal rate for a receiver with such volume.
Verdict: Shakir has become a different player with Cooper in the offense. He is fitting a short, gadget-type role in the Buffalo offense, which should decrease when Cooper is fully integrated into the offense and healthy. Shakir has a solidified role in the Buffalo offense, but project that more towards a WR3-4 in scoring going forward.
