Is This Real is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.  

Jameson Williams’ Hot Start

Jameson Williams is in the midst of a strong stretch of his season.  In the two games since week 4 (week 5 bye), Williams is averaging 16.9 points per game, ranking as WR16 over the past three weeks. 

On the season, Williams ranks WR22 in points per game (14.7). 

On the season, Williams has run routes on 91% of Detroit’s dropbacks and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. Williams has 19% of his targets, which ranks behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (29%) but ahead of Sam LaPorta (11%) in the offense.

Williams has been a major improvement over where he was last season.  In 2023, Williams only ran routes on 51% of Detroit’s games when he played, but he was only targeted on 17% of his routes, accounting for 10% of Detroit’s targets. 

This season has seen a major improvement in his workload, but his production is unlikely to be sustained.  Johnson ranks ninth in yards after the catch over expectation per catch and is doing so on a very high average depth of target (14.2).

On the season, Williams has only 16 receptions, 365 yards, and 3 touchdowns.  The receiving yardage is substantially over expectation, with his 243.6 expected receiving yards. 

Verdict: Jameson Williams has a good role in a great offense, but he is performing on the high side of variance, with production more in the role of his WR2-3 role going forward.