It is important to consider what is real and what is not sustainable for fantasy production.  Before week 6, we consider Tank Bigsby and Breece Hall.  

A Tank Bigsby Breakout?

Tank Bigsby came from the depths and finished as RB1 in week 5 after spending the first four weeks as a backup.  This raises the question of whether the trend in usage will reliably change going forward. 

Since Travis Etienne Jr. took over as the starter in Jacksonville during the 2022 season, he has been one of the higher-workload running backs in the league.  In 2023, Etienne played on 73% of the team’s snaps, accounted for 59% of the rushing attempts, and ran a route on 57% of the team’s dropbacks, which all ranked in the top five of the position. 

In 2023, Etienne only dropped below 60% of Jacksonville’s snaps once: week 12, when he played 59% of snaps.

In the first three weeks of the 2024 season, Etienne maintained this same usage, playing at least 68% of the team’s snaps in each week.  Things began to change in week 4 of this season when Etienne played 51% of snaps.  Etienne missed time in week 4 with a shoulder injury but returned to the game.  In week 5, his snap share dropped to only 39%.  Coach Doug Pederson said that Etienne suffered a shoulder injury during week 5, and the team did not want to risk reinjury, so they turned to Bigsby.  Bigsby then broke out for 129 total yards and two touchdowns on 14 touches. 

After his breakout performance, can Jacksonville put Bigsby back in the box, or has he officially arrived? 

Bigsby’s breakout comes when Etienne is in the midst of a slump, with a career-low in yards after contact (2.56) and the percentage of his yards coming on carries of 15 yards or more (18.4%).  Some of this may be a symptom of the offense, but Bigsby has been substantially better after contact (6.47) with 6 of his 34 carries going for more than 15 yards on the season.  Those runs have accounted for 76% of his rushing yards. 

Verdict: Based on the prior usage of Jacksonville, assume Etienne will return to the starting lineup when healthy. Thus, Bigsby should only be treated as a fringe flex play if necessary in week 6.  However, if a similar usage pattern appears in week 6, be ready for the possibility that Bigsby will take firm hold of this backfield.