Is This Real? Week 4

After three weeks, it is important to consider what is real and what is not sustainable for fantasy production.

Jared Goff’s Down Production

After finishing as QB16 in points per game in 2023, Jared Goff is QB26 in points scored through three weeks. Goff is averaging 241 passing yards per game, down from 269.1 yards per game in 2023. Goff’s production is down 6.8 yards per attempt from 7.6 yards per attempt in 2023. 

This production is down, despite the fact his attempts in 2024 (35.3 per game) are nearly the same as 2023 (35.6 per game). 

The main decrease in production for Goff are his touchdown numbers.  On the season, Goff has only three touchdowns with four interceptions.  Notably, Goff has an expectation of 6.3 touchdowns based on his game situation to date, so his touchdown production should positively regress in as the season goes along. 

A bigger concern is Goff’s volume. So far on the season, Detroit is extremely run-heavy and has thrown 8% less than expected by the game situation. In 2023, that was only 4% under his expectation. 

This has not shown up in his volume, as Detroit is averaging a league-high 70.7 plays per game, up from the 66.9 plays per game he averaged in 2023. 

Verdict: Overall, Goff’s production is likely to decrease in passing volume but should see an improvement in touchdown luck.  To recreate his production from 2023, Goff will need substantially better production as a passer for the remainder of the season, otherwise he risks low-end QB2 production.