In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. Fortunately, Weeks 13, 14, and 15 were solid. Week 16 was even better. Sadly, that did not carry over to Week 17. Let's review:
- I was in on Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, who was projected to finish as QB18 with 16.28 points. I said he would exceed both numbers. He exceeded one. Young came out of a fantastic matchup against the Buccaneers as QB18 with 16.9 points. I hit half of it. But not all of it. And that's a miss.
- I was out on Minnesota's Sam Darnold, who was projected to finish as QB6 with 18.89 points. I predicted he would fall short of both numbers. He fell short of one, finishing as QB8. But he scored 24.8 points. Memo to self: Quit predicting both numbers. Stick with one. For now, this is a miss.
- I was in on Titans running back Tyjae Spears, who was projected to finish Sunday's game against the Jaguars as RB26 with 10.94 fantasy points. I predicted he would finish as an RB2 or better. Even leaving the game early with a concussion, Spears hit my mark, finishing as RB12 on the week. That's a hit.
- I was out on Dallas' Rico Dowdle, who was projected to finish as RB19 with 13.76 fantasy points in Philadelphia. I said he would fall outside RB2 territory in this one. He finished as RB16. A miss.
- I was in on Arizona wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.., who was projected to finish as WR36 with 11.94 points. I predicted a WR2 or better performance. I should have specified on Sunday. He was WR24 at the end of business Sunday, but Monday night did me in, and Harrison finished as RB29.
- I was out on Cleveland's Jerry Jeudy, who was projected to finish as WR34 with 12.1 points against the Dolphins. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson as his triggerman, I predicted Jeudy would land outside WR3 territory. He was WR17. A miss.
- I was in on Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo, who carried a ton of momentum into a favorable matchup in Jacksonville. Okonkwo was projected to finish as TE15 with 7.97 fantasy points. I predicted a TE1 finish. He was TE18. A brutal miss.
- I was out on Buffalo's Dalton Kincaid, who was projected to finish as TE17 with 7.61 points last week. I said he would fall short of that TE17 spot. He finished as TE29. Eureka! A hit!
As for my Outlier of the Week, I suggested that if Young was going to make good on my high hopes in Tampa Bay, he'd need help beyond Adam Thielen. Thielen was great, by the way, but I predicted Jalen Coker would also be a factor. He was projected to finish as WR61. I expected a WR3 finish. He wound up as WR68. I blame my remarkable ability to tell myself happy -- but extremely unrealistic -- stories that lead to overly bold predictions . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 17: 2 hits; 7 misses.
Season: 69 hits; 84 misses.
So, with one weekend of regular-season play left -- perhaps the most unpredictable week all year -- my goal of hitting .500 for the year is mathematically unreachable. But there's no quit in me, and if I can go 9-0, I'd at least be within shouting distance of the target. Let's get with it, Week 18 awaits!
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Bo Nix, Broncos vs. Kansas City
Nix embodies all the best of what Week 18 has to offer in terms of motivation. Footballguys Jeff Bell noted in his NFL Week 18 Team-by-Team Motivation article that FOXSports insider Jay Glazer expects the Chiefs will be resting everyone. "Anybody who's banged up. Anybody like Patrick Mahomes II II, Chris Jones. If you've got a hangnail and are a starter, you're not playing for Kansas City. They want to make sure they go into the playoffs healthy," Glazer said. In addition to Jones, ESPN's Adam Schefter added fellow defenders George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie on the list of those who will sit this one out.,
Meanwhile, Bell points out the Broncos are in a "win and in" situation. A loss would require losses by Miami and Cincinnati for Denver to make the playoffs. The Dolphins kick off in the same window, eliminating the chance the Broncos can back their way in before playing.
Also, Nix is pretty good.
The rookie recorded three touchdowns and 21.9 fantasy points last week, his second straight game with at least 21 points. He's scored at least 19 points in four of his past six games. He also finished as QB12 with 16.1 points against a fully staffed and motivated Chiefs defense at Kansas City in Week 10.
Bottom line: The Footballguys Week 18 Projections have Nix finishing as QB8 with 18.49 points. I say he exceeds that QB8 spot.
Out: Kyler Murray, Arizona vs. San Francisco
As SI.com's Donnie Druin reminded readers this week, early in the season, there was some thought that this matchup could potentially decide the NFC West. But both teams have fallen off considerably since midseason. The Cardinals are 1-5 after their bye week (after entering the week off as NFC West leaders), while the 49ers are 1-5 since Week 11.
And Footballguys Devin Knotts and Justin Howe contend Kyler Murray's struggles have defined the Cardinals' collapse down the stretch as his performance has regressed significantly.
In their Week 18 Passing Matchups, Knotts and Howe wrote: "After a solid start through Week 10, where Murray averaged 7.5 yards per throw with a 12 to 3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, his production has cratered since the bye week. Over the last six games, he's managed just 6.7 yards per attempt and thrown more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (5)."
Murray fared well against the Rams last week, completing 33-of-48 passes for 321 yards and one touchdown while adding 32 rushing yards. But it required season-highs in both attempts and completions, and Murray heads into Week 18 as QB11 on the season with an average of 17.2 points per game. More to the point, since Week 12, Murray is QB15 with a 15.0-point-per-game average. He only has two QB1 finishes over that span. In the other four outings over that stretch, Murray finished as QB19, QB24, QB22, and QB26.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco is a bit beat up this week, but they've allowed just three opponents to throw for more than 225 passing yards all year, none of whom have done so since Week 10. Knotts and Howe point out that dominant stretch has included games against quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, and Matthew Stafford, with most opponents needing garbage-time opportunities to pad their stats.
Bottom line: Murray is projected to finish as QB7 this week with 18.91 points. I say he falls short of that QB7 finish.
Running Back
In: Michael Carter, Arizona vs. San Francisco
It wasn't a surprise that Jonathan Gannon said Wednesday morning that veteran running back James Conner wasn't going to play the season finale Sunday against the 49ers. It also wasn't a surprise that the Cardinals subsequently placed Conner on Injured Reserve later in the day with his lingering right knee injury. They filled the spot by promoting running back Michael Carter to the active roster from the practice squad. The Cardinals will be without their top three running backs for the last game; Trey Benson went on IR on Tuesday, and Emari Demercado has been on IR since Dec. 14.
So the door is open to a target of opportunity, and that target is Carter, who has already filled in as Conner's replacement the last two games after Conner left each with his knee problem. The veteran and one-time Jets starter spent the season on the practice squad before being elevated the previous two weeks. He has gained 88 yards on 18 carries, 4.9 yards an attempt. He also has seven catches for 41 yards.
Since Week 12, San Francisco has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt with, as CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg noted, the 49ers giving up at least 13.2 fantasy points per game to running backs over the last three weeks.
Given all this, FantasyPros' Derek Brown believes Carter could deliver RB1 production this week if Arizona commits to him as the workhorse back. Even if DeeJay Dallas gets a few reps in relief, I expect that to be the case. Footballguy Sigmund Bloom agrees, suggesting in his Week 18 Offensive Sleepers that Carter should be good for some cheap PPR points at worst and a touchdown plus 100 or more total yards in a best-case scenario.
Bottom line: Carter is projected to finish as RB11 with 14.3 fantasy points. I'm predicting something closer to Bloom's best-case scenario here, with Carter finishing as RB10 or better.
Out: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay vs. Chicago
The Packers are locked in as a wild card team in the NFC, but head coach Matt LaFleur noted that starters will still play in Sunday's game against the Bears. LaFleur said earlier this week that there's value to playing and playing well. However, as Profootballtalk.com's Michael David suggested, "There's also plenty of reason to give some players a break where the Packers can, and Jacobs seems to be one such starter."
Jacobs hinted at that on Thursday. "Just being honest, being realistic, I don't see me taking that many carries in this game," Jacobs told Ryan Wood of USA Today. "Obviously, I want to play. I'm going to push to play, and I'm playing. But I don't see myself taking 30 carries."
Neither do I. While Jacobs has been one of the league's best backs in 2024 -- he's rushed for 1,285 yards to rank fifth in the NFL, he's also accumulated 330 touches, among the most in the league.
It's worth noting that Jacobs has run for a touchdown in seven straight games, matching the longest streak in franchise history. Paul Hornung had a touchdown run in seven consecutive games in 1960. If the Packers have an early drive, don't be surprised if they hand the ball to Jacobs near the goal line to give him a chance to break Hornung's record.
Beyond that, we're taking our chances with Jacobs.
Bottom line: Jacobs is projected to finish as RB5 with 17.49 points. I don't think he gets enough work to meet either of those numbers.
Wide Receiver
In: Jameson Williams, Detroit vs. Minnesota
Williams has a hot hand heading into Sunday night's game against Minnesota. He logged five receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown and added a three-yard touchdown run in the win over the 49ers last week. As I noted in this week's Fantasy Notebook, Williams' big-play prowess continued, with the speedy wideout being on the tail end of a hook and lateral from Amon-Ra St. Brown, which he took 41 yards to the end zone.
In doing so, Williams became the second player in franchise history (and the first since 1952) to deliver at least five touchdown receptions of 40 or more yards in a single season.
The Lions realize this. As Brown pointed out, Williams has four red-zone targets in the last five games. He's been WR14 over that span. The former first-round pick has been WR9 in the previous three games and WR4 over the last two weeks, with an average of 25.2 points per game in those two contests.
Williams' recent history is almost as appealing as Sunday night's matchup. The Vikings have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12, in addition to giving up the most fantasy points to the position this year. They've seen eight wide receivers exceed 14 fantasy points in the past five weeks alone, tied with the Steelers for the league's most. Three of those have exceeded 20 points.
The highest over/under (56.5 points) adds to the appeal.
Bottom line: Williams is projected to finish as WR21 with 14.15 points this week. I'll predict Williams finishes as WR20 or better.
Out: Terry McLaurin, Washington vs. Dallas
Washington could pull players at some point this weekend. But as Brown suggested, Jayden Daniels and McLaurin could absolutely post nice scores with only a half of play with their big-play abilities. Indeed, McLaurin has played well against Dallas, with 37 catches, 479 yards, and three touchdowns. He averages eight targets per game against the Cowboys.
As ESPN's Mike Clay explained heading into Week 17, Atlanta's struggles against receivers, including those shadowed by Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr., made this a favorable matchup. Still, McLaurin had a quiet night last Sunday with Terrell shadowing the Commanders' wideout on 32 of his 34 routes. McLaurin finished the night with just one reception for 5 yards on seven targets.
This week, he faces Dallas cornerback DaRon Bland. According to Clay, since Bland's return from IR in Week 12, he has shadowed Malik Nabers, Mike Evans, and A.J. Brown. All three receivers -- Nabers (13-8-69-0), Evans (7-5-69-0), and Brown (5-3-36-1) -- delivered solid but unspectacular performances. While the Cowboys struggle against wideouts on the whole, they've given up third-most fantasy points to the position over their past eight games, those Bland has shadowed haven't done much damage.
It's also worth noting more receiving options have emerged in Washington. Olamide Zaccheaus, coming off an eight-catch, 85-yard, one-touchdown effort (on nine targets) against Atlanta, has averaged 23.6 points over the past two games. Zaccheaus has been targeted 17 times over that span; McLaurin has drawn 11 looks; Jamison Crowder and tight end Zach Ertz have earned nine each.
Bottom line: McLaurin is projected to finish as WR13 with 15.29 points. I'll say he falls short of that WR13 finish.
Tight End
In: Brenton Strange, Jacksonville at Indianapolis
As Eisenberg noted, there were high expectations for Strange after his Week 15 outing against the Jets when he had 11 catches for 73 yards on 12 targets. But in two games since, against Las Vegas and Tennessee, Strange has combined for two catches for 22 yards on five targets, while rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr.. has drawn a combined 22 looks.
Are we ready for a course correction?
Even though I'm not entirely comfortable with Strange, he's an affordable option on the daily sites and likely available for pickup if you've been rolling out Travis Kelce or another tight end on a team with nothing to play for this week. Better still, the matchup works in his favor.
As ESPN's Tristan Cockroft notes, over the last five weeks, New England's Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper (Week 13), Denver's Adam Trautman (Week 15), and the Titans' Chigoziem Okonkwo (Week 16) have scored in double-digits against the Colts.
Bottom line: Strange is projected to finish as TE29 with 4.78 points. I say Strange finishes as TE15 or better.
Out: Mark Andrews, Baltimore vs. Cleveland
I'm going to need somebody to hold my hand here . . . I realize Andrews has been one of the most consistent fantasy tight ends in the last five weeks, scoring a touchdown in each contest and averaging 14.7 points. I also realize the Browns have given up at least 9.9 fantasy points to six tight ends since Week 11, including Andrews, who had five catches for 36 yards and a touchdown (good for 14.6 points) in Week 8.
So I'm not pretending Andrews isn't in a good spot. I'm also not recommending sitting him if you're in the final leg of a multi-week championship.
But it's fair to wonder if he has a ton of upside with the Ravens a 19.5-point favorite in a game with a 41.5 over/under. Remember, Baltimore clinches the AFC North with a win on Saturday. They could take their foot off the gas if they get a big lead.
Bottom line: Andrews is projected to finish as TE4 with 12 points. I say falls short of that TE4 finish. I politely request you keep me in your thoughts on this one.
Outlier of the Week
We've been waiting for this moment since 2020. In case you weren't playing back then, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a pre-draft rocket strapped to his backside after being the first running back in that year's draft. Selected by the Chiefs, he wound up with an Average Draft Position of RB7 as the season began. He didn't live up to that billing and finished his rookie season as RB22. It's been downhill since with RB44, RB46, and RB58 seasons the last three years. He joined the Saints after being released by Kansas City last month. He saw his first action this season last week. He led all Saints running backs with five rushing attempts in the Week 17 loss to the Raiders. This week, with Alvin Kamara (groin) listed as doubtful and Kendre Miller (concussion) ruled out, interim coach Darren Rizzi confirmed on Friday that Edwards-Helaire will officially be elevated from the practice squad prior to Sunday's regular-season finale. He led all Saints running backs with five rushing attempts in the Week 17 loss to the Raiders, and Edwards-Helaire could work ahead of Jamaal Williams and Jordan Mims. He's projected to finish as RB41 with 5.97 points. I say he exceeds both numbers.
I will, of course, be back for accounting purposes next week. And also to roll the whole In and Out thing right through the postseason. There will be some minor adjustments to make up for the narrower slates, but there will be no shortage of my usual logic-based hot takes.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.