In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. Week 12 is a prime example of just how horrible it can get. Fortunately, Weeks 13, 14, and 15 were better. Did I keep it going in Week 16? Let's review:
- I was in on Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush, who was projected to finish as QB18 with 16.34 points. I predicted he would finish inside QB1 territory (for a second week in a row), given a super-favorable matchup against the Buccaneers. And somehow, despite throwing for 292 yards with a touchdown, Rush finished as QB19. A miss.
- I was out on Indy's Anthony Richardson, who was projected to finish as QB8 (with 18.73 points). I predicted he would not finish in QB1 territory. He did not, thanks partly to a massive game from Jonathan Taylor. Thanks, JT! A hit.
- I was in on Cleveland running back Jerome Ford, who took over as the Browns' lead back with Nick Chubb suffering a season-ending foot injury the week before. He was projected to finish as RB23 with 12.03 points. I predicted he would exceed both those numbers in a favorable matchup against the Bengals. He finished as RB9 with 24.1 points. A hit.
- I was out on the Steelers' Najee Harris, who was projected to finish as RB27 with 11.26 points against a stingy Baltimore run defense. The Ravens lived up to their reputation. Harris finished as RB50 with 4.1 points. A hit.
- I was in on Bears wideout Keenan Allen, who was projected to finish as WR31 with 12.6 points. I predicted Allen would finish as a WR2 or better against the Vikings. It was way better as the veteran pass catcher finished as THE WR2 overall with 29.1 points. A hit.
- I was out on Washington's Terry McLaurin, who was projected to finish as WR18 with 14.75 points against an Eagles defense that held him to a single catch in the Week 11 meeting between these two teams. I predicted he would finish outside the top 20. Although only one of Jayden Daniels' five touchdown passes on the day found their way to Scary Terry, he finished as WR17 with 17.0 points. A miss.
- I was in on Cleveland tight end David Njoku, who played through a questionable designation that was almost certainly the reason for his TE31, 3.54-point projection. Still, I took a big chance -- not only risking the pre-game scratch, but also saying Njoku would finish inside TE1 territory. He wound up as TE5 with 14.6. A hit.
- I was out on the Cowboys' Jake Ferguson, who was projected to finish as TE13 with 9.02 points. The Bucs might be an excellent matchup for wideouts, but they've been tough on tight ends. They could have been tougher against this one, if you ask me. I predicted Ferguson would fall short of both his numbers. He did not. Instead, he finished as TE12 with 10.0 points. A miss.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I was surprised to see Buccaneers rookie receiver Jalen McMillan projected as WR46 after a pair of WR1 finishes. Predicting he would exceed that projection was my easiest call of the week. McMillan didn't disappoint. The youngster finished as WR19 with 16.7 points. He's now WR11 over the last three games (and by the way, he's projected for a WR42 finish against the Panthers this week). Zero blame to assess on this one which put the cap on a fine week.
Here's where we stand:
Week 16: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 67 hits; 77 misses.
So here we are. Two weeks left in the regular season. I'm 10 hits below .500. I need my best two weeks to finish even or slightly ahead. I'll need to be aggressive, starting here and now, with Week 17. Let's get with it.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Bryce Young, Carolina at Tampa Bay
As I outlined in this week's Fantasy Notebook, Young recovered from a four-turnover game against the Cowboys in Week 15 with an impressive performance in beating the Cardinals (two touchdown passes and one rushing score) last week, proving that he's capable of delivering at a high level both in NFL terms and from a fantasy perspective. Young was QB2 for Week 16, with his 27.1 points second only to Jayden Daniels' 34.4. Coming off a pair of multiple-TD games, Young hit the high point of a trend. Since Week 12, he has been QB9 with an average of 19.2 points per game.
This week, Young goes up against a Tampa Bay defense that just gave up 226 passing yards to Cowboys QB Cooper Rush -- in the first half -- Sunday night and yielded 23.6 points to Young in Week 13.
But wait, it gets better. Footballguy Sigmund Bloom pointed out in his Week 17 Offensive Sleepers that Young has been adding value as a scrambler. He's averaged almost 30 rushing yards per game across his last six contests. NFL Network's Marcas Grant noted that a sneaky number in Young's recent success has been the rushing touchdowns. It's fortuitous, then, that Tampa Bay has also allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns (6), the fourth-most passing yards (4,021), the sixth-most touchdown passes (24), and the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (20.6 per week).
Adding to the fun, Carolina's offense will likely have to play keep-up with Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense. Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted that the Panthers have an early team total of over 20 points.
Bottom line: Our Week 17 Footballguys Projections have Young finishing as QB18 with 16.28 points. I say he exceeds both numbers.
Out: Sam Darnold, Minnesota vs. Green Bay
As AtoZSports.com framed it, "Darnold is the reason that the Vikings' offense has been humming this season. He shares a similar philosophy to that of head coach Kevin O'Connell: Both want the big play." Darnold has delivered, powering the Minnesota offense with 3,776 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and just 11 interceptions in 15 starts.
As a result, Darnold is QB8 on the season, averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game. This week, however, he'll be going up against a Packers defense that's allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to enemy field generals -- an average of just 14.4 per game. Darnold posted a solid 22.5 fantasy points against them in Week 4, but he's one of only four QBs who have topped 20 points against them this season.
Nine have been held to 15 points or fewer.
In their Week 17 Passing Matchups, Devin Knotts and Justin Howe suggested it's hard to get too excited about last week's 34-0 win over the "hapless" Saints. Still, it was the only shutout in the NFL all season, and it happened with star cornerback Jaire Alexander, safety Evan Williams, and safety Javon Bullard sidelined. The Packers won't get Alexander back this week, which is a plus for Minnesota.
Darnold has posted five top-12 fantasy finishes in his past six outings, but he'll have his hands full against a defense that sits top six in both sacks and INTs.
Bottom line: Darnold is projected to finish as QB6 with 18.89 points. I say he falls short of both those numbers.
Running Back
In: Tyjae Spears, Tennessee at Jacksonville
Do we know if Tony Pollard, who hasn't practiced all week (which, to be fair, has become the norm for him) and was listed as questionable with his ongoing ankle injury, will play? Do we care? Sure, as The Athletic's Jake Ciely noted, Pollard still has a higher running back touch share (54 percent) than Spears (46) over the last two weeks, but Spears has out-snapped and outperformed the starter nonetheless, thanks in part to a 15.7 percent target share and multiple goal-line opportunities in both games.
It's not just the goal-line carries. SI.com's Michael Fabiano added that Spears has eight red-zone looks over that two-game span. As a result, Spears is RB5 over Weeks 15 and 16 while delivering an average of 24.4 points per game.
Meanwhile, as Footballguy Gary Davenport noted in this week's Polarizing Players, the Jaguars sport the NFL's worst defense overall -- one that's allowed the third-most points to opposing running backs over the last 8 weeks.
Bottom line: Spears is projected to finish as RB26 with 10.95 fantasy points. I say he finishes as an RB2 or better.
Out: Rico Dowdle, Dallas at Philadelphia
It's all been going so well. Dowdle, promoted to a featured role in Week 11, is just 97 rushing yards away from his first 1,000-yard season. As CBSSports.com's Garrett Podell noted, only 2024 NFL rushing yards leader Saquon Barkley (632 rushing yards since Week 11), Baltimore's Derrick Henry (663), and the Rams' Kyren Williams (579) have more yards on the ground than Dowdle's 529 since he became the face of the Cowboys' ground game in Week 11. His 107 carries are far and away the most on the team in this stretch, followed by fill-in starting quarterback Cooper Rush's 20 and Ezekiel Elliott's 17.
Dowdle also set a new single-game, career-high in rushing yards in three successive weeks against the New York Giants (112 yards rushing on 22 carries in Week 13), against the Cincinnati Bengals (131 yards rushing on 18 carries in Week 14), and the Carolina Panthers (149 yards rushing on 25 carries).
But as Knotts and Howe put it in their Week 17 Rushing Matchups, Dowdle "finally returned to earth last week as the Cowboys could not run the ball against Tampa Bay's elite run defense last week." He finished the game with just 23 yards on 13 carries.
Adding to the general concerns, NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out that Dowdle only has six goal-line rushes all season (46th among RBs), and he hasn't seen a double-digit target share since Week 10.
But the biggest concern this week is also the most obvious: He'll be facing an Eagles defense that's given up just three touchdowns, 3.6 yards per rush, and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backs in the last eight weeks.
Bottom line: Dowdle is projected to finish as RB19 with 13.76 fantasy points. I say he falls outside RB2 territory in this one.
Wide Receiver
In: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona at LA Rams
I might need somebody to hold my hand on this one . . . I have not been on the Harrison bandwagon this year. Nor have I been looking to list him as an Out here since I did so in Week 8, only to have the rookie deliver a rare dominant performance (he was WR5 with 23.1 points) against the Dolphins.
He was great in that one. He was also great in a Week 2 outing against the very same Rams he'll play this week. He was the WR1 overall in that game.
But nobody is going to look at Harrison's rookie season as a success.
Heading into the last two games of the year, Harrison has 51 catches (tied for fifth among rookies), 726 receiving yards (fifth) and seven receiving TDs (second). Aside from the touchdowns, his numbers are hardly staggering, especially with fellow first-rounders such as Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and tight end Brock Bowers having stellar seasons statistically.
He hasn't had a touchdown since Week 13 and hasn't had more than five catches since the Week 8 game against Miami -- which was also the last time and only the second game he's had a 100-yard outing. He's coming off an incredibly disappointing effort against the Panthers, finishing with a paltry 39 receiving yards on four catches with no touchdowns. NFL Network's Michael F. Florio reminded his readers that Harrison has been held below 9.0 fantasy points in three straight games and in nine out of 15 this season.
He has seen 22 targets across his past three outings but hasn't cleared four catches for 49 yards. And while he manhandled them in Week 2, an improving Rams secondary is playing better.
So why on earth am I in on him?
One reason is volume. As Zachariason noted, Harrison had a 27.6 percent target share against the Panthers this past Sunday. That share is 21 percent on the season. He also leads the NFL in end-zone targets with 15. He has six red-zone targets in the last six games -- although his 52 percent catch rate has been an issue.
The underlying numbers work in his favor, too. According to FantasyPros' Derek Brown, since Week 9, Harrison has enjoyed a 48.8 percent air-yard share and a 30.8 percent first-read share.
Which brings us to the biggest reason Harrison is here.
I have a hunch. This is where I remind you to play your hunches over mine. Remember: It's championship week for most of you; don't get cute. This is more of a DFS play than a season-long league winner.
Bottom line: Harrison is projected to finish as WR36 with 11.94 points. I say we get a WR2 or better performance this week.
Out: Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland vs. Miami
The Browns have ruled wide receiver Cedric Tillman out for a fourth-straight game due to concussion. Perhaps more importantly, tight end David Njoku, who has been quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson's favorite target dating back to last year, will miss this one with a knee injury.
At some point, all the attrition has to work in Jeudy's favor, doesn't it?
Well . . . As Florio wrote, "Jeudy has looked like the second coming of Jerry Rice with Jameis Winston under center, but he is not usable in fantasy football when the Browns roll with other quarterbacks."
Those other QBs include Thompson-Robinson, who targeted Jeudy just three times last week, and the former Bronco finished with single-digit fantasy points. But as Berry noted, it's not just Jeudy. In DTR's four career starts, only once has a wide receiver caught more than four passes or scored double-digit fantasy points. Berry also pointed out that 45 percent of Jeudy's yards this season have come on deep passes, while Thompson-Robinson had an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 5.6 yards last week.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards, third-fewest touchdowns, and fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers this season, which is probably part of the reason Cleveland has the third-lowest implied team total on the Week 17 slate.
Bottom line: Jeudy is projected to finish as WR32 with 12.72 points. I say he finishes outside WR3 territory.
Tight End
In: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee at Jacksonville
You want momentum? Then Okonkwo is your guy. After setting career-high marks in targets (10) and receptions (8) in Week 15, the third-year TE set new bests in targets (11), receptions (9), receiving yards (81), and fantasy points (19.1) last week. Okonkwo has now produced 13-plus fantasy points in three of his last five, though, as ESPN.com noted, the exceptions were total flops (3.8 and 5.7) in Weeks 13-14.
But as Florio noted, the move to Mason Rudolph has benefitted Okonkwo, who has been the QB's top option. Okonkwo has enjoyed a 31 percent target share with Rudolph at the helm. As Bloom pointed out this week, in one of those games, Rudolph was only in for a quarter and a half and still targeted Okonkwo eight times.
On Sunday, Okonkwo faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards and sixth-most fantasy points to the position. Along the way, Jacksonville has allowed eight tight ends to score 15 or more points; two have scored more than 20 against them.
Bottom line: Okonkwo is projected to finish as TE15 this week with 7.97 fantasy points. I say he finishes as a TE1 this week.
Out: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo vs. NY Jets
As Rochester Democrat and Chronicle staffer Sal Maiorana noted this week, Kincaid has underwhelmed this season, a clear step back from his strong rookie season, before and after his injury. He needs to become a far more impactful player from here on out, and this would be a good game to get it rolling.
But why would we expect it now?
As ESPN.com explained earlier this week, the 2023 first-round pick is handling a generous 21 percent target share -- the seventh highest at his position -- in an offense averaging 3.7 touchdowns per game -- the second most in the NFL. Still, Kincaid has only scored twice this year and has yet to clear either 53 yards or 13.1 fantasy points in any game.
One reason the target share hasn't been a factor is Kincaid's 58 percent catch rate is last among 40 qualified tight ends and far short of his 78 percent rate in 2023. This isn't an especially daunting matchup, and Kincaid's role is reasonable enough. He just hasn't been delivering on it.
Bottom line: Kincaid is projected to finish as TE17 with 7.61 points this week. I say he falls short of that TE17 spot.
Outlier of the Week
If Young is going to make good on my high hopes this week, he will need help beyond Adam Thielen. As Grant noted this week, Jalen Coker hasn't been consistent, but the flashes have been impressive. Undoubtedly, last week's two-catch, eight-yard output against the Cardinals was miserable. But Bloom noted that he had "a gorgeous one-handed catch in the end zone that was barely out of bounds." But Coker did give us 110 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys in Week 15, and the Buccaneers give up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. Coker, who was WR12 in Week 15, is projected to finish as WR61 this week. I say he finishes in WR3 territory.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
