In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. Look back no further than Week 12 to see how disastrous it can be. Fortunately, Weeks 13 and 14 were better. Did I avoid disaster again in Week 15? Let's review:
- I was in on Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, who I predicted would finish in QB1 territory after being projected to finish as QB21. The rookie did outperform that number by finishing as QB20. He did not, however, meet my lofty expectations. We start things off with a miss.
- While I was out on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, it was with a "must-start" caveat, which was a good thing. He was projected to finish with 20.55 points against a Pittsburgh defense that had allowed just one 20-plus point performance to enemy field generals all year. Now it's two. I predicted Hurts would fall short of his projected point total and QB5 finish. He ended up as QB4 with 30.1 points. A humiliating miss.
- I was in on Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle, who was projected to finish as RB13 with 16 fantasy points. I predicted a finish inside the top 10. Despite his 149-yard rushing output, his third-straight 100-yard game, Dowdle finished as WR14 on the week. Another miss.
- I was out on Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who's struggled due to a lack of goal-line opportunities and pass targets -- and sometimes from careless handling of the football just before scoring. He was projected to finish as RB18 with 15.31 points. I predicted he'd fall short of both numbers. He finished as RB23 with 12.1 points. Finally! A hit.
- I was in on Bills wideout Khalil Shakir, who has become Josh Allen's most reliable target. He was projected to finish as WR31 with 12.60 points. I predicted he would finish in WR2 territory. Shakir was WR24 on the week. I'll take it! Another hit.
- I was out on Jacksonville's Brian Thomas Jr., citing concerns about his quarterback, Mac Jones, for dialing back on the rookie wideout in what should have been a tough matchup against Sauce Gardner and the Jets. It wasn't that tough, and Jones wasn't an issue, which you'd think the analyst who spends most of the year screaming at the top of his lungs not to let less-than-ideal quarterback situations chase you off great receivers would have already known. Thomas might not be great yet, but he's on his way. The rookie was projected to finish as WR12 with 15.96 points. I said he would fail to hit that WR1 range. Thomas was WR4 on the week after posting a whopping 32.5 points. I deserve this miss.
- I was in on Lions tight end Sam LaPorta going up against the Bills. The second-year man has been gaining momentum in recent weeks, and I felt his TE12, 9.5-point projections were too low. I said he would exceed both numbers. LaPorta finished as TE3 with 18.1 points. A hit.
- I was out on Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton, who has fallen behind Mike Evans and, more recently, Jalen McMillan in the pecking order. Otton was projected to finish as TE8 with 10.32 points. I said he would fall short of both numbers. He finished as TE30 with 4.4 points. A hit.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I believed Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin had emerged as the lead back in a three-man rotation. I wasn't wrong about that, but I couldn't have foreseen a quad injury that sidelined the second-year man in the third quarter against the Colts. He was projected to finish as RB43 with 6.23 points, but I predicted he would deliver flex-level production and finish inside the top 36 at the position. He finished as RB38. So close, but still a miss. I know players don't use injuries as excuses, but I'm not a player. I totally blame that fourth-quarter absence for it . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 15: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 61 hits; 73 misses.
I now face an incredibly tough battle over the remaining three weeks -- which will become increasingly unpredictable as teams start dialing back as they clinch postseason berths -- to achieve my goal of finishing at .500 or better. One thing is certain: Playing it safe won't get me there. It's Week 16, and it's time to get with it.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Cooper Rush, Dallas vs. Tampa Bay
Rush hit stride last week -- with a little help from his friends. The strategy was simple yet effective: Lean into the run and target CeeDee Lamb. A lot. Besides a second-quarter fumble that briefly gave Carolina life, Rush successfully guided the Cowboys' offense against an overmatched Panthers defense. When he needed a play, Rush looked to Lamb. The star wideout generated 116 of Rush's 214 passing yards. Rush threw three touchdowns for the first time in his career, and his 119.0 passer rating against the Panthers is the highest in a single game this year. Rush was QB8 on the week.
He now faces the Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game this year and fifth-most passing touchdowns. As a result, only one team has allowed more fantasy points per game to signal-callers this season. As NFL Network's Marcas Grant noted, "It's a number that might have been worse were it not for a string of games against some atrocious passing offenses in the past month."
Lamb alone keeps Rush and this passing attack above the atrocious line.
Bottom line: The Footballguys Week 16 Projections have Rush finishing as QB18 with 16.34 points. Time to go big or go home. I say he finishes inside QB1 territory for a second straight week.
Out: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
This selection pains me greatly as I have been a Richardson stan since Day 1. But things change, and now I'm with Nashville Tennessean staffer Nick Suss, who wrote this week, "There's really no good way to say it beyond this: Richardson struggles to turn dropbacks into completions." It's true. The second-year signal-caller is on pace to finish the season with the third-worst completion percentage of any quarterback to start 10 or more games this century. His average pass travels 12.5 yards through the air, which is so much longer than the second-longest average in the NFL that it's the same as the gap between the quarterback in second place and the quarterback in 34th place.
It doesn't help that his receivers drop his passes at a higher rate than any other quarterback. Still, by passer rating, Richardson has been the NFL's worst regular starter when pressured and the league's worst regular starter when not pressured. And for all the deep heaves, he's still completing passes targeted 20 yards downfield or longer at the league's second-lowest rate.
Meanwhile, as Associated Press sports writer Teresa Walker pointed out, the Titans have been stingy, allowing total yards and yards passing, ranking among the NFL's top three in both categories. Lately, they've finally been taking the ball away, too. They have seven interceptions over the last four games, the most in the NFL during that span, with at least two in each of the previous two games. They finished with four takeaways against the Bengals last Sunday, the highlight coming when rookie defensive lineman T'Vondre Sweat returned a fumble 30 yards.
But Tennessee has opened each of the past two games with an interception and has forced a turnover on the opponent's first possession four times this season.
Although he's missed four games this season (two to injury and two because he was benched), Richardson is tied for the fifth-most interceptions in the league with 11.
Bottom line: Even with all his shortcomings, Richardson's rushing equity and big-play ability make his QB8, 18.73-point projections this week understandable. Still, the former first-round pick only has three finishes in QB1 territory all season. I'll say he falls short of that again this week.
Running Back
In: Jerome Ford, Cleveland at Cincinnati
At the risk of being a downer, I have it on good authority that Dorian Thompson-Robinson has not been great. My authority would be his actual performances. Thompson-Robinson has completed just 44.1 percent of his passes for 100 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions over two appearances this season. Last year, Thompson-Robinson started three games as a rookie, completing 53.6 percent of his passes for 440 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. In three career starts, he's averaged 140 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game.
So, with Nick Chubb suffering a season-ending broken foot against the Chiefs, Ford moving back in as the starting halfback is worth noting.
Ford recorded 104 scrimmage yards against the Chiefs, including a 62-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. It marked Ford's first 100-yard game this season and his first since Week 7 of the 2023 season. Given the quarterback change, establishing the run this weekend will be a focal point this week. That being the case, Ford should benefit from a very favorable matchup; no team in the league has given up more fantasy points per game to the running back position over the past four weeks than the Bengals. They've given up 15-plus points to four running backs since Week 11 and nine total on the season. That includes two running backs -- Najee Harris and Tyjae Spears -- who scored more than 24 points in the last month.
Bottom line: Ford is projected to finish as RB23 with 12.03 points. I say he exceeds both those numbers.
Out: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Harris was barely involved in Pittsburgh's loss to the Eagles last week. He finished with just six carries for 14 yards as the Steelers found themselves playing from behind. According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, Harris' 14 offensive snaps from this game were a new career-low, while his 32.5 percent snap rate was the second-lowest in his career. His 3.1 fantasy points reflect all that.
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio suggested this week, Harris has become more of a floor play since Jaylen Warren's healthy return, averaging 11.9 fantasy per game since Pittsburgh's Week 9 bye. It's also worth noting Harris hasn't had a carry go for more than 20 yards since Week 8. As Rotoworld's Kyle Dvorchak pointed out, that's 107 consecutive rush attempts without more than 20 yards for the plodding back.
This week, Harris, who is best viewed as matchup-dependent, goes up against a Baltimore defense that's given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position since Week 8 and that yields a league-low 3.4 yards per carry to running backs. Of course, that would be an upgrade for Harris, who has averaged 3.2 yards per carry since Week 10.
Adding to all this, the Ravens held Harris to just 63 rushing yards in Week 11.
Bottom line: Harris is projected to finish as RB27 with 11.26 fantasy points. I say he falls short of both numbers.
Wide Receiver
In: Keenan Allen, Chicago vs. Detroit
Although he struggled in last week's loss to the Vikings, Williams has improved in recent weeks. As Footballguys Devin Knotts and Justin Howe noted in their Week 16 Passing Matchups, since Week 11, Williams' passer rating of 99.1 ranks among the top 10 in the league. The dramatic turnaround began that week when former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired, and Thomas Brown was promoted from run-game coordinator to replace him.
Since that change, Allen has emerged as Williams' go-to target, commanding a 29 percent share over the past five games, even as DJ Moore continues to provide explosive playmaking opportunities downfield. Moore is WR10 over that span, averaging 17.6 points per game. Allen is WR13 since Thomas took over as play-caller.
However, Allen has scored four touchdowns over the past month and posted more than 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Grant pointed out that one of those games was a five-catch, 73-yard, two-touchdown outing against the Lions in Week 13. This week, the Bears face that same defense -- except Detroit has suffered even more attrition -- including the loss of two starting cornerbacks last week. There should be plenty of bandwidth for Allen and Moore to excel against the league's 26th-ranked pass defense (again, both exceeded 20 points in that last meeting).
Bottom line: Allen is projected to finish as WR31 with 12.6 points. I predict Allen will finish as a WR2 or better.
Out: Terry McLaurin, Washington vs. Philadelphia
As Fansided.com's Dean Jones noted, with rookie sensation Jayden Daniels as his triggerman, McLaurin has finally begun to maximize his potential. His 11 receiving touchdowns are a career-high, and he ranks second league-wide behind only Ja'Marr Chase of the Bengals. Thanks largely to his scoring prowess, McLaurin currently sits at WR5 overall on the season.
Unfortunately, Daniels has lost a bit of steam over the last five weeks.
That five-week stretch includes a Week 11 meeting with the Eagles. As USA Today's Bryan Manning reminded readers, much was made over McLaurin's stat line against Quinyon Mitchell in that game. McLaurin finished with one catch for 10 yards and finished as WR90 on the week with 2.0 fantasy points. Yes, Mitchell was phenomenal, but he had help over the top. Why? Because Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio doesn't respect Washington's other receivers enough.
Knotts and Howe believe McLaurin can expect the same type of treatment on Sunday as no other Washington pass-catcher averages more than 40 receiving yards per game. Tight end Zach Ertz, the team's second-leading receiver, is listed as questionable coming off a concussion and isn't certain to play this week. Even if he's available, the thin receiving corps was already slightly less imposing after losing Noah Brown two weeks ago.
But don't let the lack of complementary weapons blur the obvious: This is a tough matchup. The Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including the fewest to the perimeter this season. They've surrendered the fewest receiving yards and a league-low 6.8 yards per target to opposing wideouts.
Bottom line: McLaurin is projected to finish as WR18 with 14.75 points. I say he finishes outside the top 20 this week.
Tight End
In: David Njoku, Cleveland at Cincinnati
Did I mention my disdain for the Browns' passing attack with Thompson-Robinson at the helm? Yes? Okay, just so we're clear on that.
Still, as I'm avoiding the Saturday games, there aren't a lot of opportunities to leverage our projections this week. And I'm not eager to leverage players who head into the weekend listed as questionable, and Njoku, who missed last week's game with a hamstring injury, heads into this one carrying that designation. "He's very motivated to play," head coach Kevin Stefanski said of Njoku on Friday. "We'll see how he responds to practicing today and make the decision."
Assuming Njoku is a go in this one, the DTR-Njoku connection is noteworthy. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out, in Thompson-Robinson's three career starts, Njoku has a 27 percent target share and double-digit fantasy points in each.
In addition, Njoku, who has 56 catches for 439 yards with five touchdowns in 10 games this season, faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the third-most yards, second-most touchdowns, and most fantasy points per game to the position this year.
Bottom line: Njoku is projected to finish as TE31 with 3.54 points. Assuming he plays, I say he finishes inside TE1 territory. Yes, I could have taken the easy way out here and just predicted him to top his projection. But what fun is that? Besides, the real risk here is the possibility of getting a goose egg if he doesn't play.
Out: Jake Ferguson, Dallas vs. Tampa Bay
Ferguson had a relatively quiet day against the Panthers last Sunday. Part of that was down to Lamb dominating the targets, and the other was Dowdle running so freely. As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted, Ferguson remained the clear receiving tight end but was often off the field in run situations. Fellow tight end Luke Schoonmaker was not featured once in the passing game but helped bolster the running game.
We may see Schoonmaker repeat the same game plan against a Tampa defense that's very good at stopping the run.
Jahnke contends this kind of role shouldn't majorly impact Ferguson's fantasy production. Still, in his two games since returning from injury, Ferguson's target share is 17 percent.
This week, he faces a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the second-most yards to tight ends this year but has allowed only one touchdown to the position over the past six games. Meanwhile, Berry notes that Ferguson has not seen a single end zone target since Week 1.
Bottom line: Ferguson is projected to finish as TE13 with 9.02 points this week; I say he fails to reach either number.
Outlier of the Week
Buccaneers rookie wideout Jalen McMillan is rolling. The newcomer has nine catches for 134 yards and three touchdowns on 13 targets since Week 14. As Late-Round Fantasy's Zachariason noted, McMillan has seen his two highest target shares of the season in those games, with 25 and 23 percent. He's scored 21.9 and 18.5 fantasy points in those games. If you're worried about Mike Evans being a limiting factor, don't. Evans has been WR8 over that two-game span, averaging 23.9 points per game. McMillan has been WR11. There's plenty to go around in this Baker Mayfield-powered passing attack, and McMillan is well-positioned to exceed his WR47, 9.7-point projection. I say he finishes inside WR3 territory.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
