In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. Some weeks more so than others. Week 12 is an example of how far south it can go. Fortunately, Week 13 was better, and no, not just because it could hardly have been worse (although that's also true). Week 14 was all right, too. Let's review:
- I was in on Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell in a hugely favorable matchup in Tampa Bay. Coming off a QB10 finish against Kansas City the week before, I felt the second-year man, who was projected to finish as QB21, would finish inside QB1 territory against the Bucs. Yes, he left early. But also, it wasn't all that early on and things weren't going his -- or my -- way when he was hurt in the third quarter. He finished as QB24. A miss.
- I was out on Miami's Tua Tagovailoa, who was projected to finish as QB8 in a matchup against a Jets defense that's historically held him in check. I knew he was on a roll, and New York was struggling, yet I drilled in. Tua punished me for it by finishing as QB7. A miss.
- I was in on 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo, who was projected to finish as RB20 with 12.59 points. I predicted the rookie would exceed both those numbers. He did, by orders of magnitude, finishing as RB2 with 26.8 points. A hit.
- I was out on the Falcons' Bijan Robinson, predicting (not without some consternation on my part) that he would finish no better than RB10, his RB5 projection notwithstanding. He finished as RB13. A hit.
- I was in on the new, improved Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a favorable matchup against a generous Giants pass defense. The Saints' deep threat was projected to finish as WR37; I had him finishing inside WR3 territory, WR36 or better. A touchdown would have helped me, but it didn't happen and MVS finished as WR40. A miss.
- I was out on 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel Sr., who hadn't posted a double-digit score since Week 10 (when he finished with 12.6 points) and was projected to finish as WR28. I said he'd finish outside WR3 territory. He obliged -- and then some -- finishing as WR55 on the week. A hit.
- I was in on Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson, who was projected to finish as TE19 in his first game back from a two-game, concussion-related absence. Despite a very favorable matchup, Ferguson finished as TE21. A miss.
- I was out on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who overcame a tough matchup against the same Chargers in Week 4. I didn't think he could do it a second time. He was projected to finish as TE5 with 13.07 points. I predicted he'd fall short of both numbers, and he did just that, finishing as TE13 with 9.5 points. A hit.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I felt like Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy, who caught three passes for 70 yards in that first meeting with the Chargers (good for a WR25 finish in Week 4), would wind up as a WR3 in this one. The rookie played well, catching six passes for 46 yards while playing the most snaps (57) of any Kansas City wideout. But a WR39 finish is no consolation. I blame a low-scoring game, and of course, my overly-optimistic nature . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 14: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 57 hits; 69 misses.
Of course, I need to do better over the remaining four weeks to climb back up to .500 again. So, I'll try to avoid overreacting and making desperation plays -- at least for Week 15. Let's jump in!
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Caleb Williams, Chicago at Minnesota
Things didn't go all that well for Williams in San Francisco last week, as the rookie signal-caller was held to 16.1 fantasy points. Still, he was QB11 on the week. But looking at the last month, Week 14 was an outlier.
In the three games before that, coinciding with Thomas Brown taking over for Shane Waldron as Chicago's play-caller, Williams was QB4, averaging 22.4 points per game. Narrow that subset to Weeks 12 and 13, and things get even better. Williams was QB3 with an average of 25.5 points per game over that span -- which, as you'll see in a moment, is relevant. Even factoring in his lower-end outing in San Francisco, Williams is QB7 over the last four games, averaging 20.8 points per game. Bigger picture, Williams hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6.
Meanwhile, Devin Knotts and Justin Howe noted in their Week 15 Passing Matchups that the Vikings' pass defense, while generally solid, has been struggling. They added, "Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, they operate a bend-don't-break scheme that has given up the league's third-most passing yards."
Still, Minnesota has been a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Only three have scored 20 or more points against them all season.
The good news? One of them was Williams in Week 12. The youngster threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns in that one. He was QB4 that week with 24.9 fantasy points. Was it a fluke? Not in the context of his ongoing four-game run. But also, if I'm looking for QBs who might outperform their ranking in a given matchup, why not go with one who did it against the same opponent two weeks ago?
Bottom line: The Footballguys Week 15 Projections call for Williams to finish as QB21 with 16.54 points. I say he finishes inside QB1 territory.
Out: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Here we have the first "disclaimer pick" of the week. The caveat is this: This isn't a recommendation to bench Hurts in regular season-long formats. Instead, it's meant to advise those in the Daily Fantasy world to set reasonable expectations because the Steelers are a tough matchup.
How tough? Only one quarterback (Cincinnati's Joe Burrow) has scored 20-plus fantasy points against Pittsburgh's defense. Three others went over 15 points. That's it. In addition, as ESPN's Tristan Cockroft points out, the Steelers have faced four of the league's top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points scored on rushing play and limited that group to 9.3 points per game (although that includes Anthony Richardson, who left the team's Week 4 matchup early due to injury).
While Hurts' goal-line role always adds to his value, his passing numbers haven't been exciting. Reliant on Saquon Barkley and the ground attack, Philadelphia is last in the NFL in passing attempts (328) and 31st in passing yards (2,348). As Rotoworld's Kyle Dvorchak noted, Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes once in his past nine games and hasn't topped 30 throws during that stretch. Over the last two games, Hurts has thrown for just 226 yards and 5.7 yards per attempt.
As a result, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Aidan O'Connell have as many 300-yard games as Hurts, who has one such game. There are 17 players with multiple 300-yard games.
As for scoring, Dvorchak added Hurts is still looking for his first three-touchdown game through the air. The Steelers have allowed four passing touchdown passes to opposing wide receivers this year.
One more time: You should not be benching Hurts in season-long formats. But you should be aware this is a very difficult matchup. On the other hand, daily fantasy players will want to consider other options before slapping $8,000 on Hurts on DraftKings.
Bottom line: Hurts is projected to finish as QB5 with 20.55 points. I'll keep it conservative -- look, I'm trying to battle back to .500 on the season, people -- and say he falls short of both those numbers.
Running Back
In: Rico Dowdle, Dallas at Carolina
Don't look now, but Dowdle leads the Cowboys with 731 rushing yards on 152 carries, both career highs. How did this happen? In the first six games, Dowdle topped 46 yards once (87 yards on 29 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5). He had more than 11 carries once over that span. He did not play in the Cowboys' seventh game -- at the San Francisco 49ers -- because of a game-day illness.
But he has had at least 10 carries in his past six games. He has topped 46 yards in all but one game (28 yards versus the Houston Texans). From Weeks 9 to 14, Dowdle's 485 rushing yards rank second in the NFL, trailing only Saquon Barkley (857) of the Philadelphia Eagles. But wait, it gets better. In his last two games, Dowdle posted back-to-back 100-yard outings, the first Cowboys running back to do so since Tony Pollard in 2022. He has had 18 or more touches and 15 or more fantasy points in both those outings and is RB7 for that stretch.
This week, he goes up against a Panthers defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to backs on the season. According to Knotts' and Howe's Week 15 Rushing Matchups, Carolina has allowed 189 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks. On the year, they've allowed 139 rushing yards per game to the running back position, 21 yards more than the second-worst team. NFL Network's Michael F. Florio chimed in by noting that since Week 10, the Panthers have yielded a whopping 5.9 yards per carry and explosive runs at a league-high rate of 18 percent.
Bottom line: Dowdle is projected to finish as RB13 with 16 fantasy points. I say he finishes inside the top 10 this week.
Out: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis at Denver
NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out this week that since Anthony Richardson returned as the starting quarterback, Taylor's usage near the goal line and in the passing game has fallen off drastically. As a result, he ranks last among qualified running backs in fantasy points per touch. With coaches and Richardson embracing his physical running style in scoring situations, Taylor's getting just 38 percent of the team's goal-line carries. His target share over that span is 3.9 percent.
Over the last six games, Taylor is RB27, averaging 11.6 points per game. Most recently, in the three games since Richardson returned to the lineup, Taylor is RB28 with 9.3 points per game. Knotts and Howe note that despite somewhat favorable matchups against New England and the New York Jets, he averaged 24.5 carries for just 76.5 yards and just 3.1 yards per carry over the last three weeks.
This week, they go up against a fairly stout Denver defense. Since Week 10, they're allowing just 53 yards per game, which is second in the NFL. Knotts and Howe point out that while they haven't faced elite running backs during that time, they shut down Nick Chubb, Bijan Robinson, Sincere McCormick, and Kareem Hunt, as none of those players topped 41 yards.
As a result, Denver has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position over the last month.
Bottom line: Taylor is projected to finish this week as RB18 with 15.31 points. I say he falls short of both numbers.
Wide Receiver
In: Khalil Shakir, Buffalo at Detroit
As SBNation's Corey Giacovelli noted this week, Shakir continues to exceed expectations this season and is slowly establishing himself as one of the better receivers in the league. With 65 catches for 735 yards and three touchdowns on the season, Shakir is averaging 11.3 yards per reception and is currently third in the NFL with 533 yards after the catch.
Last season, Shakir only had 39 catches for 611 yards, so he is well past that with four games to go in the regular season.
Better still, Shakir has scored 11-plus fantasy points in six of his last seven games and at least 15 points in two of his previous three games, including 21.6 in last week's loss to the Rams. Adding to the fun, he has an excellent matchup against Detroit in what the folks in Vegas believe will be the highest-scoring game on the slate (with an over/under of 54.5 points). The Bills have been held to under 30 points twice all season (and they scored 23 in both of those games).
As Florio notes, the Lions have allowed the second-most yards and fourth-most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed over 1,000 yards to slot receivers -- no other team has allowed even 860. Shakir runs 62 percent of his routes from the slot. And Berry points out that receivers who have seen five-plus slot targets against the Lions are averaging 17.5 points per game. Shakir has seen five-plus slot targets in seven straight games.
Bottom line: Shakir is projected to finish as WR31 with 12.69 points. I say he finishes inside WR2 territory.
Out: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville vs. NY Jets
I know. It's been good. Thomas is coming off his seventh game with 75 or more yards this season -- the most among all NFL rookies. With four games left, he could be the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to have 10 games with 75-plus yards. Four players have had nine 75-plus games; the two most recent were LSU alums (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Justin Jefferson in 2020). In the last two games with Mac Jones at quarterback, Thomas has had 10-plus targets and scored 16.0 or more fantasy points in consecutive games.
But here's the deal. As Footballguys Gary Davenport pointed out in this week's Polarizing Players, Thomas faces a Jets team surrendering the fewest points to wideouts this season. Beyond that, Florio notes the Jets have given up the fourth-fewest yards to receivers and just eight touchdowns, the second-fewest in the NFL. Florio added that the Jets also play man coverage at an above-average rate, and Thomas has gained just 215 of his 851 total yards against man, with a 41 percent catch rate versus the coverage.
Also, we don't trust Jones. And if we do, we shouldn't.
Bottom line: Thomas is projected to finish as WR12 with 15.96 points. I say he fails to hit that WR1 number.
Tight End
In: Sam LaPorta, Detroit vs. Buffalo
As The Sporting News noted this week, the Lions' offense is having another successful season under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, as the unit leads the league in points per game (32.1) and is second in yards per game (394.8) behind the Baltimore Ravens. Though Detroit's offense has been dynamic in 2024, LaPorta is having a disappointing sophomore campaign.
After his historic rookie season in 2023, with LaPorta pulling in 86 catches for 889 yards and ten touchdowns, 2024 has been a slog. In 12 games this year, the 23-year-old has hauled in just 36 receptions for 445 yards and five touchdowns. LaPorta was WR21 over the season's first seven weeks, averaging just 7.1 fantasy points per game.
But since Week 8? It's been better. LaPorta is TE11 over that span, averaging 11.4 points per game. Not coincidentally, LaPorta has a 20.5 percent target share and has seen six-plus targets in all but one game over that stretch. Berry notes the second-year man also has three straight games with multiple red-zone targets.
And did I mention that 54.5-point over/under in this one?
Bottom line: LaPorta is projected to finish as TE12 with 9.5 fantasy points. I say he exceeds both numbers.
Out: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay at LA Chargers
There was a time when Otton was a dominant force at his position. It seems that time is over. In the three games Mike Evans was sidelined by a hamstring injury, Otton drew a 25 percent target share. He was TE2 over that span. He averaged 19.8 points per game. It was fantastic.
In the three games since Evans returned, Otton's target share has fallen to 15 percent, and he's been TE21 with a 6.7 point-per-game average. It's been horrible.
This week, he faces a Chargers defense that's only allowed four tight ends all season to reach double-digit fantasy points. As ESPN's Tristan Cockroft notes, all four -- Mark Andrews, Bowers, Travis Kelce, and Trey McBride -- were elite names at the position. Cockroft added the Chargers' 1.38 points per target afforded to the position are the fewest in the league.
Bottom line: Otton is projected to finish as TE8 with 10.32 points this week. A diminishing role and a tough matchup will make it difficult for Otton to make good on that. I say he falls short of both numbers.
Outlier of the Week
Taking chances is the name of the game here at In and Out headquarters. And there's no bigger gamble in fantasy than trying to divine the top running back option in Denver any given Sunday. And I'm here for it. My choice? Jaleel McLaughlin, come on down! Over the last two games, McLaughlin has been the most productive back on the roster, and it seems like the reports this summer suggesting that head coach Sean Payton was all about getting the ball in the speedy second-year man's hands are coming to pass just when we need it most. And assuming Javonte Williams and rookie Audric Estime continue to take a backseat to my guy, and McLaughlin gets a reasonable workload, he's in prime position to cash in on it against a Colts defense that's been among the most generous to opposing running backs this season -- including giving up a whopping 30.1 fantasy points per game to the position over the last four games. McLaughlin is projected to finish as RB43 with 6.23 points this week. I'll say he delivers flex-level production and finishes inside the top-36 at the position.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
