In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. Look back no further than Week 12 to see how disastrous it can be. Fortunately, Week 13 was better, and no, not just because it could hardly have been worse (although that's also true). Let's review:
- I was in on Houston's C.J. Stroud, who averaged 25 fantasy points per game in his three previous career games against the Jaguars. I said he would deliver over 20 fantasy points this time around. He finished the week as QB23 with a meager 14.4 points. A miss.
- I was out on the Bengals Joe Burrow. I didn't go overboard, but I felt he would fall short of his QB5 and 20.5-point projections in a tough matchup against the Steelers. I was half right. Burrow finished as QB8, but he scored 23.3 points. Memo to self: When climbing out on a limb, try not climbing to the very end of said limb. This time, it sealed a miss.
- I was in on Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who was projected to finish as RB25 with 12.69 points. I predicted he would finish as an RB2. This is what happens when you don't climb all the way out on that aforementioned limb. Stevenson fell short of his project point total (with 12.4), yet he still finished well inside RB2 territory (as RB22). A hit.
- I was out on Arizona's James Conner, who was projected to finish Sunday's game as RB19 with 13.9 points against a tough Vikings run defense. He finished as RB27. A hit.
- I was in on Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who was projected to finish as WR24 with 13.88 points against a Washington defense that had become increasingly susceptible to deep passes. I predicted Ridley would finish well inside the top 20. I'd like to convince you I misspelled Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who finished as WR7 on the week, but you're smarter than that. And apparently, I'm not. Ridley finished as WR65 (that's not a typo) with just 6.5 points. A brutal miss.
- I was out on Baltimore's Zay Flowers, who was projected to finish as WR22 with 13.95 points in a tough matchup against the Eagles. I predicted he would fall outside WR2 territory. Philadelphia's defense was as advertised, even though they were without star cornerback Darius Slay Jr., and Flowers finished as WR41 with 10.1 points. A hit.
- I was in on Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton, who I felt would rebound at Carolina in the most favorable matchup possible for his position. He was projected to finish as TE17 with 9.55 fantasy points. I predicted a TE1 finish. Bucky Irving, with his 152 yards from scrimmage, and Mike Evans, with his 118 receiving yards, had other ideas. Otton was an afterthought and finished as TE29. A miss.
- I was out on Browns TE David Njoku, who was projected to finish as TE9 with 10.98 fantasy points. I said he would fall outside TE1 territory, not because he's not great. He is. But because the Broncos had been throttling opposing quarterbacks at home. So naturally, Jameis Winston threw for more than 500 yards to finish as QB1 overall for the week. Njoku rode the Winston wave to a TE2 finish on the week. A miss.
As for my Outlier of the Week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was projected to finish as WR42 with 10.98 points as the Saint took on the Rams. I predicted a WR3 or better finish, and the new, improved MVS finished as WR34, just under the wire. I'd like to take all the credit, but Valdes-Scantling's hands also deserve some of it. This was a much-needed hit.
Here's where we stand:
Week 13: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 53 hits; 64 misses.
Of course, I'll need to do better over the remaining five weeks to finish at .500 or better for the year. I've tasted .500, but it'll take much stronger play going forward, starting with Week 14. So let's dive in!
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas at Tampa Bay
As ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez put it, "O'Connell is who we thought he was." Making his first appearance since breaking the thumb on his passing hand in October, O'Connell looked comfortable in the pocket against the Chiefs on Black Friday. He passed for 340 yards, completing 23 of 35 passes to finish as QB10 for the week with 21.6 fantasy points. He was especially effective on deep throws.
This week, he goes up against a Buccaneers defense that allows the most points per game (22.4) to fantasy quarterbacks this season. They've given up double-digit scoring to the position in all but one game (Jared Goff was held to 8.78 back in Week 2). Nine of the 12 QBs they've gone up against have scored more than 18 points; seven more than 20; four more than 25; and two have scored more than 30 points.
There's no rushing equity here -- and his lack of mobility led to three sacks last week -- but O'Connell, who also delivered a pair of 20-point outings late last season, has the receiving assets in Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers to leverage this matchup. As Devin Knotts and Justin Howe noted in their Week 14 Passing Matchups, Tampa Bay's defense has struggled mightily underneath, particularly against tight ends, setting up Bowers for another big game.
Bottom line: The Footballguys Week 14 Projections have O'Connell as QB21 with 15.77 points. I don't believe it's a reach to expect the guy who finished as QB10 against the Chiefs won't finish in QB1 (QB12 or better) territory against the Buccaneers.
Out: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami vs. NY Jets
If you feel like this is a bit of a reach, welcome to my world. There are plenty of more obvious fades at the position. Geno Smith was last week's "Out" at the position, and I like to avoid double-dipping. Kirk Cousins is playing poorly and faces a tough matchup against his former team in Minnesota. His QB24 projection more than covers that. Same with Winston, who would be a fun player to be out on coming off his QB1 overall performance in Denver, but the projectors have taken his tough matchup against the Steelers into account with his QB18 projection.
There are others, but everybody feels like they're projected right where I like them.
So why Tua, who's scored 23-plus points in three straight games including 25.2 points in Green Bay this past week? After all, New York's defense has been middle of the pack in terms of fantasy production allowed to opposing QBs. Their 16.3 points per game given up to opposing field generals ranks 16th in the league.
Still, Knotts and Howe characterize this as a tough matchup. NFL Network's Michael F. Florio agrees, pointing out that New York has allowed the second-fewest passing yards this season and given up just nine passing TDs, making it the only team that hasn't allowed double-digit pass TDs in 2024. Florio went on to contend the Jets' weakness is against mobile quarterbacks -- with Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen being three of the four QBs to surpass 20 points against them (Russell Wilson was the other), and Tagovailoa hasn't run much since returning from his latest concussion.
In addition, we have history here. Florio reminded his readers that in two games against the Jets last season, Tua threw one touchdown and failed to top 250 pass yards in each game. In five games against them in his career, he has thrown six TDs and five interceptions, averaging 189 pass yards per game.
Yes, it still feels like a bit of a reach. Yet here we are.
Bottom line: Tagovailoa is projected to finish as WR8 with 18.12 points. While I laid out the case for why he might struggle more than expected, I'll also point out a couple of other QBs projected to finish after him -- Will Levis and Caleb Williams -- that I believe could jump ahead of Tua. So let's do this: Tagovailoa finished outside the top 10.
Running Back
In: Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco vs. Chicago
First, let's stipulate that Kyle Shanahan has called Guerendo the starter. I say this realizing Shanahanigans are always possible. The team promoted Patrick Taylor Jr. from the practice squad and added former Jet Israel Abanikanda. But for now, with six teams on bye, I'm viewing Guerendo the same way I viewed Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason -- as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
I outlined all this in the Week 14 Polarizing Players, but it's worth revisiting here. Over the first eight games this season, Mason handled the lead role in the 49ers offense. He had some RB1 weeks but was mostly a solid RB2, finishing as RB19 during that stretch. McCaffrey returned after the team's Week 9 bye and delivered similar production. He was RB15 during his four games. Expecting Guerendo to deliver at the same level seems reasonable. Better still, we have actual evidence of that, as Guerendo has 14.5 fantasy points per game in his two contests with 10-plus touches.
The rookie is big, at 220 pounds, and has 4.33 speed in the 40. While his opportunities have been limited this season, he has flashed big-play potential. His longest run -- a 76-yarder against the Seahawks in Week 6 -- showcased his explosiveness. According to Pro Football Focus, Guerendo has recorded five explosive runs (gains of 10 or more yards), four of which were designed runs that exceeded 15 yards. He has totaled 246 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 42 carries while adding five receptions for 19 yards.
This week, he goes up against a Chicago defense that's given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season and allowed 120-plus rushing yards in five of their last six games. Knotts and Howe, in their Week 14 Rushing Matchups, note that since Week 8, Chicago has allowed 139 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is third in the NFL.
Over the last three games, they've given up more than 20 points to two different backs, while Detroit's duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for more than 25 points in Week 13.
Bottom line: Guerendo is projected to finish as RB20 with 12.59 points. I don't want to get too crazy (especially with Trent Williams sidelined), so I'll predict Guerendo he exceeds both those numbers.
Out: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta at Minnesota
And you thought I was going out of a limb by being out on Tua . . . Disclaimer time! There's no way you're not starting Robinson in redraft leagues. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft put it, you're not benching a player who has averaged 22.3 fantasy points and 23.5 touches over the past seven weeks. Not in Week 14 with six teams on bye. Not ever.
But . . . If you're expecting him to deliver at that same level this week -- and you plan to pay for it in daily fantasy or other contests, let me remind you this is a tough matchup.
According to Knotts and Howe, "This is a combination of a very good run-stopping unit and a funnel defense as the Vikings' pass defense continues to struggle, and teams are looking to throw the ball against Minnesota rather than try to run the ball against them."
How good is it against the run?
Since Week 9, Minnesota has been the best run-stopping unit in the NFL, holding opposing rushers to a league-low 49 rushing yards per game. They're third-toughest against the run for the season. Mason (17.4 points in Week 2), Jahmyr Gibbs (32.0 in Week 7), and Kyren Williams (22.6 in Week 8) are the only three running backs to exceed 12 points against them, and all three did it before Week 9. No running back has gone over 70 yards in that stretch as they shut down James Conner, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne Jr.., and Jonathan Taylor. Of those backs, only one -- Conner, with 11.0 points -- hit double-digits.
Cockroft reminded readers Robinson faced the similarly stingy Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3, averaging 1.9 yards per carry for 13.2 fantasy points (he finished as RB20 that week), and his Falcons' struggling quarterback, Kirk Cousins, brings a risk of sinking his team into a negative game script.
Bottom line: Robinson is projected to finish as RB5 with 18.88 points. I say he finishes no better than RB10. And yes, I'm as horrified by all this as you are.
Wide Receiver
In: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans at NY Giants
From Outlier of the Week to front-line player? As noted above, Valdes-Scantling made good on my prediction he'd finish as a WR3 last week. That's closer to the starting point this week, and I'm here for it.
And it's an easy argument to make. Valdes-Scantling is WR18 over his last three games, with an average of 18.1 fantasy points per outing. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry notes, in addition to having four touchdowns in four games, MVS is benefiting from a monstrous 22.8 aDOT and has seen 55 percent of his targets on deep passes.
This week, he faces a Giants defense that allows the highest completion percentage on passes of 20-plus air yards. They have allowed a 68 percent completion rate on those throws. Only one other team is higher than 46 percent. Beyond that, the Giants rank sixth in fantasy points per game allowed to wideouts over the past four weeks, but their defense may also spend a lot of time on the field.
The concerns are real. Valdes-Scantling doesn't command the volume I'd like to see him get -- although that could change with Taysom Hill no longer in the mix. Still, the same could be said of Rashid Shaheed, the injured teammate MVS replaced, and Shaheed was WR23 over the six games he played.
Bottom line: MVS is projected to finish as WR37 with 11.35 points. I say he will easily finish in WR3 territory again this week.
Out: Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco vs. Chicago
My anti-Samuel stance is a hill I'm willing to fight on. And I'm not alone. Samuel has caught just 38 passes for 531 yards and a touchdown this season. He has also been largely ineffective as a rusher, averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry.
As SI.com reported, NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger took Samuel to task during a recent appearance on 95.7 The Game, saying that the star pass-catcher simply does not look effective on the field. "Nothing's going on with Deebo," Baldinger said. "I mean, he doesn't separate. He's not getting open. There's nothing that looks exceptional about him."
Samuel hasn't gotten a single carry in the last two games and has run the ball 27 times for just 79 yards and one lone score on the season. Remember, the 28-year-old ran for 225 yards and five touchdowns in 2023, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. Between 2021 and 203, Samuel reached the end zone five times as a rusher.
This has hit fantasy investors hard. Samuel hasn't posted a double-digit score since Week 10, when he finished with 12.6 points. He's hit 20 points once all season and only has four games with WR2 or better finishes (including a WR12 finish in Week 1 and a WR10 finish in Week 6). Over the last three games, he's WR71 with an average of 5.1 points per game, and he hasn't finished higher than WR57 over that span. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. Florio points out they're also among the 10 stingiest defenses when it comes to YAC allowed to receivers, which is a specialty of Samuel.
Bottom line: Samuel is projected to finish as WR28 with 12.7 points. I say he falls outside WR3 territory again.
Tight End
In: Jake Ferguson, Dallas vs. Cincinnati
More firepower is on the way for the Cowboys in the form of Ferguson. The Cowboys were able to put down the Giants on Thanksgiving with the help of Brandin Cooks in his first matchup since landing on injured reserve this season, and they're hoping Ferguson can have the same, or even a bigger, impact against the Bengals.
The Pro Bowl tight end has officially cleared concussion protocol and will take the field on Monday night. Ferguson has been sidelined for three games this season, the first due to a sprained MCL, but he's now fully healthy going into the final five regular season games of 2024. As the team's official website suggested, that can only be viewed as a massive positive for Cooper Rush and the Cowboys' offense, considering how dangerous Ferguson has proven to be, but also in how his absence opened the door for both Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford to begin turning their respective corner.
But make no mistake: Ferguson, who has averaged 7.4 targets per game in his seven full outings this season, is the top option.
Meanwhile, as Berry pointed out, over the past four weeks, Cincinnati has allowed a league-high 21.6 points per game to tight ends. That includes games of 18 or more points to Pat Freiermuth, Will Dissly, and Mark Andrews over the last three weeks. The Bengals have also allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four straight games.
Bottom line: Ferguson is projected to finish as TE19 with 7.3 points this week. I say he finishes inside TE1 territory.
Out: Travis Kelce, Kansas City vs. LA Chargers
Kelce and the Chiefs may be on top of the AFC at 11-1 entering Week 14, but the All-Pro tight end is having one of the worst statistical seasons of his 12-year NFL career. As Athlon Sports' Chris Licata suggests, this comes as opposing defenses continue to key in on Patrick Mahomes II's favorite target and as age potentially begins to set in.
Through 12 games, Kelce, who turned 35 years old in October, has registered 75 catches, 637 yards, and a pair of touchdowns on 101 targets. He's never scored fewer than four touchdowns in the regular season, and his 53.1 yards per game average is his lowest annual mark to date. Meanwhile, fourth-year backup Noah Gray has come on strong recently with four touchdowns in the last three games.
While Gray has been a limiting factor, the bigger concern this week is the matchup. Cockroft notes that the Chargers have been the second-toughest defense against tight ends for the season in terms of both adjusted fantasy points allowed (minus-4.2) and fantasy points per target (1.39). Bigger picture, they've allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to the position this season and have allowed just four tight ends to score double-digit points. Granted, Kelce, with 15.9 points in Week 4, was one of them, but he's only hit or surpassed that mark four times since. He's also had four games as TE12 or lower in that span.
Bottom line: Kelce is projected to finish as TE5 with 13.07 points. I say he falls short of both those numbers.
Outlier of the Week
There are many interesting candidates this week, with increasing attrition across the league and six teams on bye. I'm going to roll with Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy against the Chargers, who haven't been as impressive against wideouts as they have against tight ends. In addition, we have some first-hand experience to fall back on here. Worthy caught three passes for 73 yards against this same defense -- a unit that's allowed 11 different receivers (including Worthy) to rack up more than 70 yards. The speedy youngster is projected to finish as WR44 with 9.01 points. He finished as WR25 against them the first time around. I won't go that far, but let's say Worthy finishes in WR3 territory.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.