In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. Look no further than last week, when I fell flat on my face despite having great confidence in all my picks. Was it my worst week ever? No. It was tied for my worst week of the season, so I'm taking solace in not setting a new precedent. Let's sort through the debris:
- I was in on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who I felt would compile better than 20 points in a super-favorable matchup against the Ravens. Instead, he became the fifth quarterback this season to fall short of that number against Baltimore. A miss.
- I was out on Seahawks signal-caller Geno Smith, who I predicted would finish outside QB 1 territory. He finished as QB21 in a low-scoring win over the Cardinals. A hit! (Please pardon the exclamation mark and allow me a small celebration of one of my two hits this week.)
- I was in on Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr, who I believed would finish as an RB1 in a favorable matchup against the Cowboys. However, Robinson injured an ankle in the first half and struggled in his return before he was ruled out in the second half. Being limited to five carries and one catch wasn't ideal. A miss.
- I was out on Carolina feature back Chuba Hubbard, who I felt would struggle to succeed in a difficult matchup against the Chiefs. And it wasn't his best game. But like James Cook did in this matchup the week before, Hubbard scored a touchdown to save an otherwise unimpressive outing. It was enough to keep him in the RB2 territory (he was RB16) I predicted he would fall outside. A miss.
- I was in on Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans. Check that. I was too far in on Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans. He was projected to finish as WR20 in his first game back from injured reserve. I predicted a WR1 finish. I was overly enthusiastic. He finished as a WR3 (WR28). A miss.
- I was out on Cowboys star receiver CeeDee Lamb, who was projected to finish Week 12 as WR4 overall. I predicted he would finish well outside WR1 territory, and his WR15 finish qualifies. A hit.
- I was in on Patriots tight end Hunter Henry, who I predicted would exceed his TE10, 9.94-point projection. He did not. Henry, who had previously delivered double-digit points in four of Drake Maye's five starts, finished as TE16 with 9.4 points. A miss.
- I was out on Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, who was projected to finish as TE12 with 9.3 points in a tough matchup against the Chargers. Andrews was up to the challenge. He delivered a touchdown catch to finish as TE8 with 15.6 points. A miss.
As for my Outlier of the Week, my love for receivers returning from extended absences is a problem I need to address in the future. Adam Thielen was projected to finish as WR50 with 8.31 points in his return from injured reserve. Again, my love went unrequited. I predicted WR3 production. While he did outperform his projection, Thielen's WR46 finish didn't satisfy my needs, adding another miss to my total. I have nobody to blame but myself . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 12: 2 hits; 7 misses.
Season: 49 hits; 59 misses.
Again, matching my worst effort of the season wasn't what I expected. Yet here we are, facing a much more challenging climb to get back to .500 on the year. It starts right here, with lucky Week 13.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: C.J. Stroud, Houston at Jacksonville
As I suggested in this week's Polarizing Players, I've become resigned to the fact that Stroud is not a front-line fantasy player. He currently sits at QB15 on the year, and Week 12 offered us a look at his season in microcosm. Stroud threw multiple touchdown passes against the Titans for the first time since Oct. 13, but he also threw multiple interceptions for the second time in three weeks and was sacked four times. Houston's line has allowed 17 sacks in its past four games. The protection issues have been a significant problem. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio noted this week, Stroud has been pressured at a rate of 41 percent, the second-highest mark in the NFL and a significant jump from his rate last season (35.5 percent). He's also been without key weapons like Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins for stretches.
Given all this, even with Collins back in the mix, Stroud has fallen outside my circle of trust.
That said, he plays the Jaguars this week, and Jacksonville has allowed a league-high 23.1 points per game to the position this year. Eight opposing quarterbacks have scored at least 18 points against the Jags; seven have scored more than 20 points; two scored more than 30 points. By the way, one of those 20-point scorers was Stroud in Week 4 (23.5). He has thrown for at least 280 yards and two touchdowns in every career game against Jacksonville, and ESPN's Tristan Cockroft notes three of Stroud's six best fantasy point totals have come against the Jaguars, giving him an average of 25.0 points per game against them.
Bottom line: The Footballguys Week 13 Projections have Stroud as QB11 with 18.37 points. I say he hits over 20 points against the Jaguars again this week.
Out: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
First of all, please don't bench Burrow. Unless you have Stroud (and a lot of nerve). Or one of the four quarterbacks ahead of him on this week's Footballguys Consensus Rankings -- Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, or Josh Allen.
But if you expect Burrow to play up to his QB3, 22.0-point-per-game level this week, you might want to reset those expectations.
First of all, it's not about him. It's about the matchup. As Cockroft pointed out, the Steelers are the only defense that hasn't seen a single quarterback score 20 fantasy points against them, with Dak Prescott's 18.38 in Week 5 being their most allowed. They've allowed the fewest points per game on the season, 11.9 per contest. This year, they've held opposing quarterbacks to single-digit scoring in half (6) of their games.
Adding to all this, temperatures are expected to be well below freezing during the AFC North rivalry showdown at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, which may not bode well for Burrow. For the record, that's not me saying this might be an issue. It was Burrow, who underwent season-ending surgery on his right wrist last season, telling reporters Wednesday that he's unsure how his wrist will feel with temperatures getting so low. According to SI.com's Karl Rasmussen, Burrow mentioned that Sunday will mark his first cold-weather game since undergoing the procedure in 2023.
Look, Burrow has thrown 27 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season. He hasn't shown any signs of rust after missing the last seven weeks of the 2023 campaign. But getting the job done against a tough Steelers defense in below-freezing temperatures will be a challenge.
Bottom line: Burrow is projected to finish as QB5 with 20.5 points. I don't want to get too wild here, but let's say he falls short of both those numbers.
Running Back
In: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England vs. Indianapolis
As NFL Network's Marcas Grant noted this week, Stevenson has multiple outings with more than 19 fantasy points, but it's hard to say it's been a good season. He hasn't had 90 scrimmage yards in a game since Week 5. Last week, he produced a season-low 13 total yards and failed to catch either of his targets en route to a 1.3-point fantasy outing.
The good news this week is he'll benefit from one of the most favorable running back matchups available. The Colts are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including some monster games with five opposing rushers going over 20 points. Over the last four weeks, the Colts have given up six total touchdowns to the position, and Footballguys Devin Knotts and Justin Howe noted in their Week 13 Rushing Matchups that since Week 8, they're allowing 105 rushing yards per game.
Are there concerns? For sure. According to Footballguy Matt Bitonti, the only team with a worse offensive line in terms of run blocking is the New York Giants. Also, FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes that after a strong start this season, Stevenson's tackle-breaking metrics haven't been great; he currently ranks 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt.
Bottom line: I feel the Footballguys Projections, RB26 with 12.69 points, are emphasizing Stevenson's shortcomings more than the matchup. I see room to bust a small move here and say Stevenson finishes in RB2 territory this week.
Out: James Conner, Arizona at Minnesota
As Yahoo! Sports suggested, the Cardinals must lean on running back James Conner if they want to pull off an upset in Minnesota. They also acknowledged that will be easier said than done.
I don't want to overstate the fact that Conner is coming off one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 9.9 points in a loss to the Seahawks. Overall, Conner is RB18, averaging 14.4 points per game. So playing him as an RB2 is perfectly understandable. This week, it's also risky.
Over the last four weeks, no defense in the league has given up fewer yards per rush (2.7) or fantasy points per game to running backs. Only five times all year have opposing running backs scored in double-digits against them -- and two of those came in one game (Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Week 7). That means the Vikings have held opposing running backs to single-digit scoring in seven of 11 games.
Cockroft notes that Trey Benson's increasing usage (31 percent of the backfield's rushing attempts the past four weeks, compared to 18 percent over the first eight) adds to the concerns for Conner investors. Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason adds to that by pointing out that Conner averaged a running back rush share per game rate of 76 percent across his first eight games this season but just 53 percent over the last three games.
Bottom line: Conner is projected to finish as RB19 with 13.9 points. I say he finishes outside RB2 territory.
Wide Receiver
In: Calvin Ridley, Tennessee at Washington
As Yahoo's Bryan Manning reminded readers, the Titans paid Ridley big money to sign as their No. 1 receiver in the offseason. It's been a frustrating year for Ridley, but things have improved since Tennessee traded DeAndre Hopkins and Levis returned from injury. Ridley has averaged 16.9 points per game without Hopkins this year. With Hopkins, Ridley was at 7.5 points per week. As a result, Ridley is WR7 from Weeks 8 through 12. He's averaging 90.2 yards per game over that span.
It's been a bit more of a mixed bag in the three games since Will Levis returned from injury. Ridley has finished as the WR3, WR41, and WR20. He also has two red-zone targets and two scores in those three games.
This week, Ridley goes up against a Commanders defense that's run cold, then hot, and now cold again when it comes to slowing opposing receivers. According to Brown, since Week 6, Washington has held perimeter wide receivers to the 12th-lowest PPR points per target. But over the last four games, Washington is tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed on deep passes.
I know Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, with six touchdowns over the last seven games, has been an issue. But Zachariason notes he's averaging a touchdown on every five targets this year. That's not sustainable. The average across the league at wide receiver is about one touchdown for every 20 targets.
Bottom line: Ridley is projected to finish as WR25 with 13.88 points. I say he finishes well inside the top 20.
Out: Zay Flowers, Baltimore vs. Philadelphia
The last time I tried this, Flowers made me look foolish. I was out on him in Week 9 when he went up against what had previously been an almost impenetrable Denver pass defense. I went all in on that defense, predicting a single-digit output for Flowers, who went out and finished as WR3 on the week with nearly 30 points against them. While I approach this selection with trepidation, I find comfort in knowing that Flowers has come up short on occasion, including a 4.0-point showing in one of the most favorable matchups possible against the Buccaneers in Week 7.
As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry notes, since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles are allowing the second-fewest points per game to opposing wide receivers. Over that span, only three wide receivers have scored at least 10 points against the Eagles, all of whom are high-profile names -- Ja'Marr Chase in Week 8 and Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua last week. Nacua is the only wideout to have more than 60 receiving yards during their hot streak.
One note: Eagles cornerback Darius Slay Jr. has been ruled out with a concussion, but Quinyon Mitchell and rookie Cooper DeJean have been a big part of the team's success.
Bottom line: Flowers is projected to finish this one as WR23 with 13.95 points. I say he falls outside WR2 territory this week.
Tight End
In: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay at Carolina
I'm sure some of you were disappointed with Otton's one-catch (on three targets), 30-yard output against the Giants last weekend. I certainly was. While it's fair to be concerned that Mike Evans' return to the lineup was a limiting factor -- Zachariason notes that Otton's target share without Evans on the field is 28.3 percent and 15.9 percent with him, other issues contributed to Otton's 4.0-point outing. For one, the Buccaneers were up early and leaned into their rushing attack to finish the Giants off. Also, as Florio pointed out, the Giants had allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position heading into last week's game.
Meanwhile, it's easy to forget that in the four games before the Bucs' Week 11 bye, Otton averaged 9.8 targets and 19.3 fantasy points, numbers he should come closer to this weekend. The Panthers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends over the last four weeks. They've also allowed a league-high eight tight ends to score double-digit points this season, including Chiefs backup Noah Gray, who caught a pair of touchdowns against them last week.
Bottom line: Otton is projected to finish as TE17 with 9.55 fantasy points this week. I say he finishes in TE1 territory.
Out: David Njoku, Cleveland at Denver
While Njoku can deliver any given week, Denver's defense has owned opposing quarterbacks. Only three have scored 14 or more fantasy points against them this season, and only Lamar Jackson put up 18-plus on them. No opposing quarterback has scored more than 13.7 points in a game against them at Mile High this season. Only once this season have the Broncos allowed multiple touchdown passes at home. The last quarterback to play in Denver, Kirk Cousins, in Week 11, was held to 4.9 fantasy points.
Shut down the quarterback, and you also put the kibosh on his weapons.
That includes tight ends. The Broncos have seen only three tight ends reach 10 points against them all season, and they were big-time performances by high-end talents: Brock Bowers, who scored 23.7 points in Week 5, and Travis Kelce, who finished with 20.4 in Week 10. But the Broncos held Bowers to 7.8 points in Vegas last week, and only three tight ends have delivered double-digit points against them all year.
Bottom line: Njoku is projected to finish as TE9 with 10.98 fantasy points. I say he falls outside TE1 territory.
Outlier of the Week
One name stands out to me as we look at the range of players outside starting territory in most leagues: Marques Valdes-Scantling. While the Saints' offensive resurgence began with the return of Derek Carr three weeks ago, Valdes-Scantling, who joined the team only a month ago, has proved he can be an explosive element with Rashid Shaheed out for the season. MVS has now scored three touchdowns in two games, tying the team lead in receiving touchdowns, including a 71-yarder against the Browns before last week's bye. Better still, we're seeing a new, improved Valdes-Scantling. This MVS, unlike the MVS we've seen in the past, the one who has five drops on passes traveling 30-plus yards in the air since 2018 (more than any other player in the league), hasn't been dropping passes. The new, improved Valdes-Scantling is projected to finish as WR42 with 10.98 points this week. I say he leverages his straight-line speed advantage against the Rams secondary to finish as a WR3.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
