In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. There's ample evidence of that. See Week 9, Week 7, and Week 3 to get a feel for just how ugly it can get. Week 10, on the other hand, was outstanding. Week 11? Well . . . Let's review:
- I was in on Russell Wilson with the Steelers QB going up against a Ravens defense that had been among the most generous in the NFL when it came to allowing fantasy points to the quarterback position. I hoped for a shootout. I should have taken into account the AFC North factor, with low-scoring affairs being the norm in those divisional contests. I said Wilson would finish in QB territory. He didn't come close, finishing instead as QB26. A miss.
- I was out on Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins going up against a tough Broncos pass defense in Denver. I predicted he would fail to hit his QB21, 16.12-point projection. He obliged. Or should I say the Broncos delivered? Either way, Cousins finished as QB 27 with just 4.9 points. A smash hit.
- I was in on Brown running back Nick Chubb, who had a nice matchup against the Saints. Turns out Jerry Jeudy was the play here. I predicted Chubb would finish well inside the top 20 at his position. He was RB38. A miss.
- I was out on James Cook, with the Buffalo running back facing one of the most challenging running back matchups in all the land. I predicted a finish outside the top 20. Despite running for just 27 yards, Cook scored a pair of touchdowns against the Chiefs to finish as RB7 -- the best of any fantasy back this season. Another miss.
- I was in on Calvin Ridley, as the Titans wideout had serious momentum heading into a favorable matchup against Minnesota's secondary. I predicted a finish inside WR1 territory for Ridley, who had been WR3 over the previous three weeks. The momentum did not carry over. Okay. The momentum was destroyed when Ridley finished as WR43. A miss.
- I was out on Packers receiver Jayden Reed, who was projected to finish as WR20. I predicted a finish outside WR2 territory going up against a Chicago defense that had yet to allow a touchdown to a slot receiver this season. Reed immediately scored a touchdown. Fortunately, he did little else en route to a WR42 finish. This was a hit.
- I was in on Will Dissly, which comes as no surprise to anybody who's listened to my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show, The Football Diehards, and heard my overly enthusiastic pleas to "fire the Diss-Missile" over the years. This was my first chance to fire up Dissly on the Footballguys platform, predicting the Charger would exceed his TE16, 8.51-point projection. He obliterated them, finishing as TE5 with 18 points. A joyous hit.
- I was out on Evan Engram, who was projected to finish as TE5 in a tough matchup against the Lions (playing with Mac Jones as his triggerman with Trevor Lawrence sidelined by a shoulder injury). The Lions (and Jones) did their part, and Engram finished as TE20. Another hit.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I thought Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte's chemistry with Drake Maye, especially on deep passes, in a favorable matchup against the Rams would give the second-year man an opportunity to outperform his WR50, 8.55-fantasy point output. No go. Even though Boutte was tied with Demario Douglas for the most wideout targets (6) in this one, it was Kendrick Bourne who got a touchdown catch, keeping Boutte from achieving my objective. This was a miss. I blame Bourne and, of course, myself . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 11: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 47 hits; 52 misses.
I'm not going to pretend a 4-5 week is great, but I've had worse, and I'm still set up to fight my way back to .500 on the year. That battle continues with Week 12.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers vs. Baltimore
If you think I'm going to let a lousy performance by Wilson last week scare me off this matchup, think again. Not with Herbert heading into this one averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game in the previous four, with multiple passing touchdowns in three of them. Last week, against the Bengals' 30th-ranked pass defense, resulted in a 24.38-point effort, Herbert's best fantasy outing of the season. Herbert threw 36 passes in that game and has thrown more than 30 times in each of his past six games.
Meanwhile, as Footballguys Devin Knotts and Justin Howe noted in their Week 12 Passing Matchups, the Ravens' pass defense is "the Achilles heel of an otherwise strong roster."
In fact, the Ravens rank dead last in the NFL against the pass, allowing the most yardage and second most touchdowns. They've allowed 17-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks seven times, including six with more than 20 points, and two have scored 30. Those numbers come partly because, as NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out, teams facing them average a league-high 39.5 pass attempts per game.
Adding to the fun, quarterbacks who attempt 30-plus passes against the Ravens average 22.9 fantasy points per game.
Last week, the shootout I needed to help Wilson didn't happen. Could that happen again this week? Vegas doesn't think so. The Ravens-Chargers boast the highest Over/Under of the week at 51 points.
Bottom line: The Week 12 Footballguys Projections have Herbert, who has rushed for an average of 37 yards per game over his last four, finishing as QB7 with 18.61 points. I say he exceeds 20 points.
Out: Geno Smith, Seattle vs. Arizona
Don't look now, but Arizona's defense is playing better than people think. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio noted, in Weeks 7-10, Arizona allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and only one passing touchdown. It also ranks in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed in that span.
Moreover, no quarterback has hit 15 fantasy points against them over the past four games, and two have been held to single-digit output.
Arizona's one weakness is the pass rush. Smith is tied for the NFL lead with 11 interceptions this season. The key is bringing pressure to him, as 10 of his picks have come under pressure.
Either way, consistency hasn't been Smith's strength this season. As SI.com's Michael Fabiano pointed out, he's scored fewer than 16 fantasy points in three of his last five games.
Bottom line: Smith is projected to finish as QB9 this week with 18.41 points. I say he falls outside QB1 territory.
Running Back
In: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington vs. Dallas
Robinson returned to action last Sunday and fared well after a two-game, hamstring-related absence. He scored a touchdown and posted 14.2 fantasy points in a matchup against a Philadelphia defense that had allowed only three other backs to score more this year.
The Dallas defense won't be mistaken for the Eagles any time soon. The Cowboys are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They've allowed more than 1,500 rushing yards and a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. Seven opposing backs have scored at least 18.9 points against them, including five with 20 or more, four with 30-plus points, and one (Alvin Kamara) with 44 points.
Berry notes that Robinson has at least 17 touches in five of his seven completed games this season. Running backs who have seen 17-plus touches against the Cowboys this season are averaging 28.2 fantasy points per game. Five of the six RBs with 17-plus touches against the Cowboys scored a rushing touchdown.
Bottom line: Robinson is projected to finish as RB19 with 13.49 points. I'm not expecting Robinson to match Joe Mixon's 109-yard, three-TD, 35.30-fantasy point outing against the Cowboys this past Monday, but the second-year back will finish as an RB1 this week.
Out: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina vs. Kansas City
As I acknowledged in this week's Polarizing Players, Hubbard has been getting the job done for the Panthers and fantasy managers alike.
But this week? Hubbard is going up against a Kansas City defense that just limited Buffalo running backs to 49 yards on 19 carries (averaging 2.6 yards). This has been the norm. The Chiefs have held Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, Jordan Mason, James Cook, and both Tampa Bay RBs to less than 50 rushing yards.
As a result, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to the position than the Chiefs 14.9 points per game. Cooks' 19.7 fantasy points, coming off his two-touchdown (both coming in goal-to-go situations) performance, were the most allowed this season.
Adding to the concerns, rookie Jonathon Brooks will make his NFL debut. I don't know that he'll cut into Hubbard's workload significantly. But do we need another potentially limiting factor in a matchup like this?
Bottom line: Hubbard is projected to finish as RB16 with 13.96 fantasy points. I say he falls outside RB2 territory.
Wide Receiver
In: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay at NY Giants
Although he was officially listed as questionable after a limited practice Friday, Evans is fully expected to return to action Sunday after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Evans said on Friday that he feels "really good" heading into this one. Evans also said, "This week definitely built my confidence" about being able to play his regular role, and head coach Todd Bowles said that the team is not going into the weekend with any preconceived snap count in mind for the wideout.
"We'll play him as long as he's healthy and fresh," Bowles said. "If he needs to be in there, he'll be in there, but we'll get him out when we have to."
Since it's been a month since we've seen him, it's easy to forget how dominant the veteran wideout can be and how valuable his role is. As Berry reminded his readers, Evans is still tied for the NFL lead with 11 end zone targets.
Better still, he returns to a matchup that plays up Evans' strengths. According to Berry, the Giants allow a catch rate of 77 percent on passes of 20 air yards or more. Fantasy investors can expect Evans to be covered by Giants cornerback Deonte Banks, who has shadowed in nine of the Giants' 10 games this season. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, Banks has traveled with Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown, George Pickens, and Terry McLaurin. That group has averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game.
As Clay summed up, "Top receivers clearly haven't had much trouble against the Giants," and Baker Mayfield, despite being without Evans and Chris Godwin (who suffered a season-ending ankle injury the same night Evans was hurt), is still QB5 on the season averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game.
Bottom line: Evans is projected to finish as WR21 with 12.95 points. I believe he'll exceed 15 points and finish in WR1 territory.
Out: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas at Washington.
As ESPN's Tristan Cockroft noted this week, "Dak Prescott's season-ending hamstring injury hasn't caused Lamb's fantasy production to crater, but it has definitely had an adverse impact."
It's true. After averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game in his first eight games, Lamb has averaged 13.5 in Cooper Rush's two starts. Cockroft believes that calls for Trey Lance to get a chance at quarterback heighten concerns about Lamb's fantasy stock.
He's not wrong. But this is as much about the matchup as the QB for me. As Clay explained, after a poor start to the season, Dan Quinn's defense has been elite against wide receivers lately. Only one wide receiver, Pittsburgh's George Pickens, with 20.5 in Week 10, has exceeded 15 points against the Commanders in the past five weeks. During their past eight games, Washington has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, including the fifth-fewest to the perimeter and fewest to the slot. Lamb runs out of the slot 54 percent of the time.
Bottom line: Lamb is projected to finish as WR5 with 17.47 points. I say he finishes well outside WR1 territory.
Tight End
In: Hunter Henry, New England at Miami
One way to set a rookie quarterback up for success is to provide him with security blankets that can provide an easy target for young quarterbacks like Drake Maye.
For the Patriots, Henry and Austin Hooper have emerged as reliable outlets for Maye. The Pats tight end duo ranks fourth in the NFL with 70 combined receptions for 728 receiving yards this season. The only rooms that have been more productive than New England's tight ends are Baltimore (Mark Andrews), Las Vegas (Brock Bowers), and Kansas City (Travis Kelce).
While Hooper has chipped in, Henry has led the way. He's posted 12-plus fantasy points in four of Maye's five complete games this season while drawing a 21 percent target share in those contests. According to Florio, Henry has a 26 percent first-read share, the sixth-best among tight ends per Fantasy Points Data, with Maye under center.
As a result, Henry has averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game with Maye at the helm of this offense; he's hit double-digit in four of those games.
This week, he'll go up against a Dolphins defense that's allowed 20.5 points per game to the position in the past four weeks alone, the fifth most in the league. Of course, as Cockroft pointed out, a lot of that came from a pair of top-shelf tight ends (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride); they also surrendered a combined 14.4 points to Dalton Kincaid and Quintin Morris in Week 9 and 8.4 points to Davis Allen in Week 10.
Bottom line: Henry is projected to finish as TE10 with 9.94 fantasy points. I say he exceeds both those numbers.
Out: Mark Andrews, Baltimore at LA Chargers
I know. It seems like Andrews has been a thing. And he has, at least from a fantasy perspective. However, the veteran tight end needs touchdowns to be relevant. As Berry noted, Andrews has yet to score 10-plus fantasy points in a game where he didn't also score a touchdown this season.
This week, he faces a Chargers defense that is the only unit in the NFL that hasn't allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season.
Of course, with enough volume, Andrews' odds of scoring increase. And Andrews' volume has been tied to the presence of Isaiah Likely. For example, Andrews ran a route on 94 percent of Baltimore's dropbacks in Week 10 without Likely. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, that was a season-high for him. In Week 11, Andrews' route participation fell back to 58 percent with Likely back.
His 9.7 percent target share last week was his lowest mark since Week 4, but it's been the norm. In games that Likely is also active this season, Andrews has a target share of 11.6 percent.
Bottom line: Andrews is projected to finish as TE13 with 8.8 fantasy points. I say he falls short of both.
Outlier of the Week
Be careful here. Adam Thielen is listed as questionable in his return from a hamstring injury that's sidelined him for the last seven games. But assuming he's back? There are six teams on bye this week, people. You'll probably need some help and Thielen might have more upside than some of your other options. I know; it wasn't great earlier this season. But with Diontae Johnson no longer on the roster, the door is open for Thielen to reclaim his spot at the WR1 in this offense, ahead of Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and David Moore. Last season, with Bryce Young as his triggerman, Thielen handled a team-high 25.6 percent target share and averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game en route to a WR18 finish. Thielen is projected to finish as WR49 with 8.31 points. The Panthers will likely need to throw the football against the Chiefs, and as long as he plays, I'm looking for WR3 production.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
