In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. For proof that predicting the future can go off the rails, look back at my Week 9 effort (or Week 3 and Week 7 for that matter). But Week 10 was better! Let's review:
- I was in on Jared Goff, so I really appreciate him choosing to have a five-interception game this week. Going up against a Houston defense that had been good in general but still generous to opposing quarterbacks (at least from a fantasy perspective), I predicted that Goff, who had scored 18-plus points in three of his previous five games, would surpass QB11, 17.76-point projection. He did not. This was a miss.
- A week after being in on him, I was out on Patrick Mahomes II, who was projected to finish as QB8 with 18.1 points. While I felt he could still be a QB1, I predicted he would fall outside the top 10 against the Broncos. He finished as QB11. It was close. But it was a hit.
- With the Giants going up against the Panthers, I was in on Tyrone Tracy Jr. for the obvious reason: The matchup was irresistible. Tracy was projected to finish as RB20 with 14.49 points. I couldn't imagine a scenario where Tracy didn't surpass both those numbers, so I predicted a top-15 with more than 15 points. Despite a slow start, Tracy finished as RB8 with 17.4 points. A hit.
- Let me know if you've heard this one before, but I was out on Titans running back Tony Pollard going up against the Chargers for the obvious reason: The matchup was daunting. While Pollard's RB19, 14.65-point projection clearly accounted for the matchup, I predicted Pollard would finish outside the top 20. He was RB24. Another hit.
- I was in on 49ers wideout Jauan Jennings, who was projected to finish as WR46 with 8.16 points. I expected him to blow that projection away in a favorable matchup against the Buccaneers, but I played it safe in predicting a finish inside WR3 territory. He finished as WR15. That's a hit.
- I was out on Bears receiver DJ Moore, who was projected to finish as WR25 with 12.38 points. Given his apparent lack of chemistry with a struggling Caleb Williams, I predicted Moore would finish outside of WR3 territory. Moore was WR56 with just 5.7 points against the Patriots. Another hit.
- I was in on Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson in his second game back from last year's torn ACL. He was projected to finish TE16 with 8.68 points despite a very favorable matchup against the Jaguars. I predicted a finish inside the top 12. Hockenson was TE5 with 15.2 points. A hit.
- I was out on Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson, who was projected to finish as TE7 with 11.27 fantasy points in a tough matchup against the Eagles with Cooper Rush taking over for the injured Dak Prescott. I said he would finish outside the top 10. The matchup was tough, and Rush struggled enough to be replaced by Trey Lance. It didn't help. Ferguson finished as WR24. This was a hit.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I thought a great matchup (the Rams have given up huge games to the position this year) and a four-game streak of solid production would lead to Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith outperforming his TE15, 9.2-point projection. He was TE20 with 7.5 points, keeping me from hitting my best week of the year. I blame Tua Tagovailoa for spreading his 28 attempts to nine different receivers -- and, of course, I blame myself . . .
Here's where we stand:
- Week 10: 7 hits; 2 misses.
- Season: 43 hits; 47 misses.
While a 7-2 week is much more to my liking, my battle to return to .500 continues. And it starts with Week 11.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
Russell Wilson moved into the Steelers' starting lineup in Week 7. He immediately delivered a QB3 performance with 24.9 fantasy points. Week 8 wasn't fantastic, but it could have been. Wilson had one touchdown called back due to penalty and came up just short on a second would-be touchdown when George Pickens didn't get both feet on the ground in bounds. In his third outing, Wilson was cooking again. He finished as QB10 with 18.1 fantasy points.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game in addition to 25.3 points per game. They've also allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or more yards downfield.
More to the point, for our purposes, Baltimore has given up 26 points per game to opposing QBs since Week 5. They've given up 20-plus points six times in 2024 -- with all but one QB scoring at least 20 against them since Week 5. QBs have scored more than 30 points against them twice this year.
Adding to the intrigue, the Steelers will have their hands full trying to slow a Baltimore offense that's scored a league-high 318 points. We have shootout potential here.
Bottom line: The Footballguys Week 11 Projections have Wilson finishing as QB16 with 16.77 points. I say he finishes in QB1 territory -- inside the top 12.
Out: Kirk Cousins, Atlanta at Denver
Cousins is looking to avoid consecutive games without a passing touchdown for the first time in his career as a starter. Going up against the Broncos defense that allows the third-fewest yards per completion and the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt will make that a daunting task.
For fantasy investors, Cousins has been a feast-or-famine play. He's averaged 31.5 fantasy points per game against the Buccaneers and 11.3 fantasy points against all other teams. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio noted, Cousin brings a low floor, as he has scored fewer than eight fantasy points in three games, and only twice has he topped 13 fantasy points against non-Bucs opponents.
Meanwhile, NBC Sports' Matthew Berry notes that just three quarterbacks have scored 14 or more fantasy points against the Broncos this season, and only Lamar Jackson put up 18-plus on them. No opposing quarterback has scored more than 13.7 points in a game against them at Mile High this season. Only once this season have the Broncos allowed multiple touchdown passes at home.
Adding to the concern, Berry contends Denver's ability to bring pressure is especially bad for Cousins. The Broncos are third-best in pressure rate this season, while Cousins has thrown the second-most interceptions when pressured.
Bottom line: Our projections team has taken all this into account. Cousins is projected to finish as QB21 with 16.12 points. I say he falls short of both numbers.
Running Back
In: Nick Chubb, Cleveland at New Orleans
Before he was injured at the beginning of the 2023 season, Chubb was one of the best running backs in the league. There were hopes he could add a spark to the Browns offense upon his return. That hasn't happened. Yet. Cleveland ranks 31st in total offense and 28th in rushing offense.
The good news is that Chubb has locked in a consistent role. He's handled 42 of the backfield's 56 rushing attempts in his three games this year. His best outing came against Baltimore, where he averaged 3.2 yards per carry and ended with 52 yards. As USA Today suggested, struggles should have been expected, and surpassing those expectations would have been a welcomed surprise.
Coming off a bye week seems like an optimal time for Chubb to step up his performance, and he couldn't have asked for a much better matchup.
Devin Knotts and Justin Howe noted in their Week 11 Rushing Matchups that New Orleans is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the most since Week 5. Four running backs have topped 100 yards on the year against this defense. Missed tackles have plagued this unit, and they have allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns and the second-most yards per carry this season.
As a result, six different running backs have scored 16-plus fantasy points against the Saints in the last five weeks. Four of them finished with 26-plus over that span. They've allowed two running backs to score over 30 fantasy points, with one, Bijan Robinson, who scored 29.4 last week, falling just short of that.
Bottom line: Chubb is projected to finish as RB4 with 11.79 points. I say he finishes well inside the top 20 in this one.
Out: James Cook, Buffalo vs. Kansas City
I realize those of us setting lineups in redraft leagues probably don't have better options than Cook. I'll be playing him myself in those cases. However, having realistic expectations for each player you're fielding is helpful in setting your lineups. Fortunately, those of us playing in DFS and other contests can avoid him altogether.
And yes, it's about the matchup.
Running against the Chiefs is extremely difficult as they rank second in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (3.7) and yards gained before first contact (1.02), which, as Sal Maiorana of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle suggested, simply means they win at the line of scrimmage and get to ballcarriers before most defenses. Maiorana explained one of the keys is that they play heavy in the box with three LBs -- Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, and Leo Chenal -- at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
That's reflected in the fact that Kansas City has not allowed more than 13.2 points to any running back this season. As SI.com's Michael Fabiano pointed out, that list includes superstars like Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, and Alvin Kamara, not to mention Rachaad White, J.K. Dobbins, and Jordan Mason.
It's also about Cook falling short in tough matchups.
While he's scored 15-plus fantasy points in five of his nine games and ranks 11th in total points scored among running backs, ESPN's Tristan Cockroft notes that in his three toughest matchups, Cook has averaged 11.0 points, whereas against his three easiest matchups, he has averaged 19.7.
Bottom line: Cook's Footballguys Projections call for an RB16 finish with 15.19 points. I say he falls outside the top 20 this week.
Wide Receiver
In: Calvin Ridley, Tennessee vs. Minnesota
As ESPN.com's Dan Graziano pointed out this week, since DeAndre Hopkins was dealt to Kansas City, Calvin Ridley has enjoyed a resurgence in the Titans offense. The veteran wideout is the overall WR2 over the last three weeks, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game since the trade. This comes after posting single-digit points in five of his first six games.
Better still, Ridley has had success with Mason Rudolph in the first of those two games and with Will Levis. In fact, Ridley was WR3 with 25.4 points despite a tough matchup against the Chargers in Levis' first game back in the lineup after a three-game absence with a shoulder injury.
This week, Ridley faces a Vikings defense that has allowed 16 opposing wideouts to post double-digit fantasy points this season. It's also worth noting that Ridley leads the NFL with 35 deep targets. The Vikings have allowed the second-most receptions per game this season on deep targets.
Of course, as Graziano suggested, Levis will be going up against the blitzes and pressure Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores' unit brings. Even so, Ridley is pretty much the only non-running back option in the Titans' offense. As our own Julia Papworth noted in this week's Beat the Waiver Wire, Ridley has averaged 10.6 targets per game since Hopkins' departure.
Bottom line: Ridley is projected to finish as WR20 with 13.94 fantasy points. I say he exceeds both numbers and finishes inside WR1 territory.
Out: Jayden Reed, Green Bay at Chicago
Here's another player redraft investors will have a hard time avoiding. Reed currently sits at WR12 on the season with an average of 14.8 points per game. However, there are issues here that suggest a slow week in Chicago.
First, as FantasyPros' Derek Brown pointed out, Reed only has two red-zone targets over the last five games. He has only one end-zone target this season. Berry notes that Reed hasn't seen a target share of 20 percent since Week 5 and has only two games all season with a target share of 20 percent or more.
Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed the second-fewest catches, touchdowns (five), and fantasy points to wide receivers this season. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, while they're midpack against the perimeter, they've surrendered the fewest points to the slot, and Reed runs out of the slot 71 percent of the time. Four receivers have reached 13 fantasy points against Chicago this season, and all four (Nico Collins, Gabe Davis, Terry McLaurin, and Noah Brown) were primarily outside receivers.
The Bears have yet to allow a touchdown to the slot this season.
Bottom line: Reed is projected to finish as WR21 with 13.76 points this week. I say he finishes outside WR2 territory.
Tight End
In: Will Dissly, L.A. Chargers vs. Cincinnati
That's right, kids. It's time to "Fire the Diss-Missile."
I know. Some of you are wondering why anybody would consider this a good idea. Well, as Footballguy Sigmund Bloom wrote in his Week 11 Offensive Sleepers, "You might be surprised to learn that Dissly is the top target-getter for the Chargers over the last four games, and with five more than his nearest competitor."
In fact, Dissly is now second on the team in total targets and boasts a target share of at least 23 percent in three of his past four games. He's also scored eight or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. The fact that Justin Herbert is averaging 30 passing attempts per game over the last five weeks compared with 20 over the first four games adds to the fun.
Adding even further to that, he'll face a Bengals defense that has been waylaid by tight ends. Bloom points out that Cincinnati has given up six touchdowns to tight ends in the last six games, and seven tight ends have gone for at least 40 receiving yards against them over that span, including the likes of Charlie Kolar, Jordan Akins, and Grant Calcaterra.
Dissly is going to fit right in.
Bottom line: Dissly is projected to finish as TE16 with 8.51 fantasy points. I'm not going to go crazy here (as much as I'd like to); instead, I'll say he exceeds both those numbers.
Out: Evan Engram, Jacksonville at Detroit
As a general rule of thumb, Engram is a must start at one of the league's thinnest positions. It's a situation that's ideal -- for our purposes -- with Christian Kirk out. But this week, the Jaguars will not only enter Sunday's game without Kirk, but they will also be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence for a second time in as many games. Head coach Doug Pederson on Wednesday ruled Lawrence out with a left-shoulder injury and Mac Jones will make his second consecutive start.
Jones threw for 111 yards and no touchdowns with three fourth-quarter turnovers -- two interceptions and a lost fumble -- in a 12-7 loss to the Vikings this past Sunday. Engram's eight targets and 10.0 fantasy points last week offered encouragement that he can still be a top-10 fantasy tight end, but Cockroft contends the change at quarterback has diminished Engram's upside.
However, the triggerman isn't Engram's only issue this week. The Lions have allowed the fifth-fewest yards, lowest passer rating, and zero touchdowns to tight ends since Week 6, and Fabiano notes they've allowed just one tight end (relative unknown AJ Barner) to score double digits against them this season, as Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Schultz have all had no real success against them. Cockroft believes McBride, who scored 5.5 points on six targets in Week 3 against the Lions, is an excellent volume-oriented comparison point for what to expect from Engram this week.
Bottom line: Engram is projected to finish as TE5 with 11.13 points this week; I say he falls outside the top 10 in this one.
Outlier of the Week
In addition to his point on Dissly, Bloom included another player in his Week 11 Offensive Sleepers that piques my interest. In noting that Drake Maye and the Patriots offense didn't have to lean heavily into the pass in their win over the Bears this past Sunday, Bloom thinks that could change against the Rams this week. Given that, Bloom is keen on DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. I like Douglas every week, so he's no outlier for me. Boutte, however, is. And I like him this week. According to FantasyPros' Brown, in Maye's four full starts, Boutte has had an 11.8 percent target share while serving as the team's primary deep threat (with six deep targets). The Rams have allowed the fifth-most deep passing yards and the fourth-highest passer rating to deep passing. Brown added Los Angeles has also struggled against boundary receivers. Since Week 6, they have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Boutte is projected to finish as WR50 with 8.55 fantasy points. I say he tops both those numbers.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
