In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. Look no further than Week 9 for evidence (but also Week 3 and Week 7) that predicting the future is tricky business. Let's review:
- I was in on Patrick Mahomes II. That's right. With the Chiefs facing a generous Buccaneers pass defense, I predicted Mahomes would break the 20-point barrier for the first time since last November. He finished as QB4 with 24.5 points. A hit!
- I was out on Tua Tagovailoa going up against a Bills defense that's given the Dolphins' QB a tough time throughout his career. Tua's Week 9 projections called for a QB24 finish and 15.06 points, and I said he'd fall short of both. He finished as QB15 with 17.5 points. Congrats to him. Not to me. This was a miss.
- I was in on Cincinnati RB Chase Brown in a favorable matchup against the Raiders. He was projected to finish as RB21 with an expected 13.46 points. I predicted he would top 15 points in this one. Brown finished as RB4 with 26.7 points. A big hit.
- I was out on Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins in a tough matchup against the Browns. Turns out that Dobbins, projected to finish as RB14 with 16.17 points, was tougher than the matchup. I predicted he would be held to fewer than 16 points. Instead, he scored 24.5 en route to an RB6 finish. A massive miss.
- I was in on Chargers WR Ladd McConkey, who had emerged as Justin Herbert's favorite target in recent weeks. He was projected to finish as WR26 with 12.59 points in Cleveland. I predicted a finish well within WR2 territory. A Chargers receiver did that, but it was Quentin Johnston (WR8 on the week with 22 points) instead of McConkey. Another miss.
- I was out on Baltimore's Zay Flowers, going up against Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos. Given the brutal matchup, Flowers was projected to finish as WR27 with 12.46 points. I took it a step further and predicted single-digit fantasy points for Flowers. The second-year wideout was not having that. He finished as WR3 with a whopping 29.7 points. This was such a big miss, calling it a miss doesn't do it justice. Still, a miss.
- I was in on Detroit's Sam LaPorta in a favorable matchup in Green Bay. He was projected to finish as TE12 with 9.23 points. I predicted a top-10 finish with double-digit fantasy points. LaPorta reminded me this is 2024, not 2023, by finishing as TE31 with 4.8 points. A miss.
- I was out on Green Bay's Tucker Kraft in that same game. He was projected to finish as TE13 with 8.91 points; I said he would fall short of those projections in a tough matchup against the Lions. He finished as TE19 with 7.6 points. I'm grateful for the hit.
As for my Outlier of the Week, Jacksonville’s Parker Washington, who moved into Christian Kirk's slot role, was projected to finish as WR60 with 7.81 points, which was right where he finished in replacing Kirk in Week 8. I predicted he would exceed both numbers. He got halfway there, finishing as WR50 but falling short on points with just 7.1. And that makes it a miss. I blame a Jaguars offense that had 31 yards of offense (just 16 passing) in the first half of Sunday's loss to the Eagles, and, of course, I blame myself . . .
Here's where we stand:
- Week 9: 3 hits; 6 misses.
- Season: 36 hits; 45 misses.
If I was a baseball player, my .444 success rate on the year would be great. But there's still plenty of time to battle back over the .500 mark again, and it starts with Week 10.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jared Goff, Detroit at Houston
Well, if I'm going to get edgy here, why wait? First of all, Goff is playing well. He leads all NFL quarterbacks with a 74.9 completion percentage this season and ranks second with a 115.0 passer rating. Over his past six games, Goff has recorded the highest completion percentage (82.8) and passer rating (140.1) by a player in a six-game span in NFL history. He's playing disciplined football and distributing to all his weapons -- as solid a group as you'll find in the league. The Lions' 258 points scored this season are sixth-most in the league.
But Footballguys Devin Knotts and Justin Howe aren't wrong when they explain in their Week 10 Passing Matchups that Goff's role has shifted from a traditional stat-stuffer to a more controlled and efficient point guard. They added: "A volume breakout is unlikely this week against the Texans' formidable pass defense, which has consistently stifled opponents."
Well . . . Again, they're not wrong. Houston has the No. 2 overall defense (281.7) in the NFL and the No. 3 passing defense (167.4). They rank second in passes defended (49) and fourth in sacks (29.0).
Still, as I often argue, there's a difference between NFL and fantasy outcomes. Even though they're a great defense, Houston has allowed the most passing touchdowns to QBs this season. The Texans allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for three scores last week and have given up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Overall, the unit has given up 16-plus fantasy points to five quarterbacks, including three with over 20.
Besides, it's in a dome, and we all love our narratives, right?
Bottom Line: Goff's Week 10 Footballguys Projections have him finishing as QB11 with 17.76 points. I say Goff, who's scored 18-plus points in three of his last five games, tops both those numbers.
Out: Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City vs. Denver
What's this? Last week's hero is this week's trash? Nah . . . My stance on Mahomes has been consistent all year. He can absolutely be the best quarterback in the NFL and not be a viable, weekly fantasy QB1. Yes, I ranked him as that last week, and he was one of my three hits. So why am I bailing on him?
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio wrote, "Mahomes put up his best game of the season in Week 9, but it came in the best possible matchup for a QB: Tampa Bay. He does not get that luxury this week."
Florio acknowledged (like I did in the Accountability section above) that Denver's vaunted pass defense got cooked by Lamar Jackson (with a big assist from Flowers) in Week 9. But that's the outlier. Before playing Baltimore, Denver had allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. Beyond that, Mahomes has an extensive history against the Broncos. Overall, the results have been mixed. But last season, he averaged 273 passing yards per game and threw one touchdown pass and three interceptions. He finished as QB7 with 17.3 points in their Week 6 meeting last year and QB19 with 7.6 points two weeks later.
And again, before last week's game, the last time Mahomes had a top-10 weekly fantasy finish was Week 12 last year. It hasn't been the norm.
Bottom line: Mahomes is projected to finish as QB8 with 18.1 points this week. Four teams are on bye this week, so I don't want to overstate the case and say he falls outside QB1 territory. Instead, I'll say he finishes outside the top 10.
Running Back
In: Tyrone Tracy Jr., NY Giants vs. Carolina (in Munich, Germany)
When the anticipated workload and matchup are too good to pass up, I lean in. Look, I'm not saying it works every time. But fantasy football is a game of playing the odds. And the odds don't get much better than this, especially when I'm looking to leverage situations where the outcomes could be way better than the projection. I know last week wasn't great, but we've seen Tracy's upside with 20-plus point outings with an RB5 finish in Week 6 and an RB6 finish in Week 8.
Let's address the positive factors one at a time.
In terms of workload, ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft noted Tracy's backfield takeover appears complete as, in three games since Devin Singletary's return from a groin injury, the rookie has played 35 percent more of the offensive snaps, has 28 more carries and averaged 8.8 more fantasy points per game than Singletary has. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry notes that Tracy has 70 percent of the Giants’ RB touches, including back-to-back games with 17-plus touches over the last three weeks.
As for the matchup, the Panthers rank last against the run this season and have given up a league-high 15 rushing touchdowns. For our purposes, they have surrendered the most total fantasy points and points per game to running backs. They've allowed eight running backs to score 17-plus points, and a league-leading six scored 20-plus against them this season. The floor is also high. They've allowed an opposing running back to score at least 13 points in all but one game.
Bottom Line: Tracy is projected to finish Sunday's game as RB20 with 14.49 points. It's hard for me to envision a scenario where Tracy doesn't surpass both those numbers. I say he finishes inside the top 15 with more than 15 points.
Out: Tony Pollard, Tennessee at LA Chargers
Again, we have four teams on bye, so not all of us will have the luxury of sitting a team's top offensive weapon -- even in the toughest of matchups.
Still, that's the game we play here with the In and Out.
As has been the case with Tracy, Pollard has enjoyed great volume. He's coming off a season-high 31 touches in Week 9, which resulted in an 18.4 fantasy points. But he got those numbers against one of the league's worst run defenses. Circumstances will be different this week.
First, Tyjae Spears practiced fully this week and is on track to return from the hamstring injury that's sidelined him the last three games. He might not have a robust role in his first game back, but in a game projected to be one of the week's lowest-scoring affairs, any potential limiting factor is worth noting.
Meanwhile, the Chargers defense has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game (17.5) to opposing running backs. Cockroft notes the Chargers' defense is one of three to have not yielded a 20-point game to a running back this season, and Fabiano points out they held Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, Kareem Hunt, Javonte Williams, and Nick Chubb to under 14 fantasy points.
Bottom line: Pollard's Week 10 projection clearly takes the matchup into account. He's projected to finish as RB19 with 14.65 points. I say he finishes outside the top 20.
Wide Receiver
In: Jauan Jennings, San Francisco
As I suggested in this week's Polarizing Players, sometimes it's nice to dip back into the pool of previously productive players with fantastic opportunity.
Jennings will return to action after missing the last two weeks with a hip injury. This would be the same Jennings who took advantage of Deebo Samuel Sr.'s absence in Week 3 to finish as fantasy's WR1 with 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams. While Samuel is expected to be on the field for this one, Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season. And did I mention the fantastic opportunity?
Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. NFL Network's Marcas Grant notes that Jennings has run more than half of his routes from the slot. No team has allowed more yards on slot targets than Tampa Bay.
Grant also points out that despite being shorthanded on offense, Bucs OC Liam Coen still generates points with his offense. That could force San Francisco to keep throwing the ball.
Bottom line: Jennings is projected to finish as WR46 with 8.16 points. I'm not expecting another performance like Week 3, but going up against a Buccaneers pass defense has been one of the most generous in the league? Jennings seems like a lock to finish inside WR3 territory.
Out: DJ Moore, Chicago vs. New England
Heading into the 2024 season, Moore has caught passes from 12 different quarterbacks since entering the league in 2018 and ranked seventh in the NFL in receiving yards over that span. It's safe to say not all of those quarterbacks have been great. In my eyes, he was "quarterback-proof."
Remember, Moore topped 1,100 receiving yards in three straight seasons with the Panthers -- 2019-21 -- despite Carolina's unstable quarterback situation. He played with late-career Cam Newton, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker during that span before his production dipped in 2022. Still, he set a career-best for touchdown receptions, with Baker Mayfield and Darnold starting at least five games each that year.
He also had great success with Justin Fields in Chicago last year (and he wasn't horrible with Tyson Bagent, either). Moore finished 2023 as WR6 on the season.
So it's not a reach to say expectations skyrocketed when the Bears drafted Caleb Williams with the first pick overall in April's draft. The production hasn’t matched the hopes, however.
The Bears are 29th in the league in passing yards and 19th in points scored, with Moore catching 37 passes for 374 yards after posting 96 catches for 1,364 yards during his first season in Chicago. As Profootballtalk.com suggested, the lack of connection has been even more pronounced in the last three games as Moore has 10 catches for 80 yards.
So there's that. And then there's a matchup against Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Even in a down season, the expectation is Gonzalez will shadow Moore. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, Gonzalez has shadowed Ja'Marr Chase, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, Gabe Davis, Davante Adams, and Calvin Ridley. Seven of the eight receivers fell short of 14.5 fantasy points, and the exception (Metcalf) benefited greatly from a long broken-play touchdown that wasn't Gonzalez's fault.
It all adds up to me being less than eager to roll Moore out.
Bottom line: I think Moore's projection, we have him finishing as WR25 with 12.38 points, is reasonable. While all the attention on the lack of chemistry between Moore and Williams may result in an attempt at a course correction, I'm going to lean into that lack of chemistry and the matchup and say Moore finishes outside WR3 territory this week.
Tight End
In: T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota at Jacksonville
Hockenson, who tore his ACL last December (but didn't have it repaired until the end of January this year), returned to action against the Colts last week. It was a great matchup, but the veteran only played 45 percent of the snaps in his first game back. So his three-catch, 27-yard outing is understandable. But I expect more this week.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hockenson only had a 63 percent route participation rate. As Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted, Hockenson was typically well above the 80 percent mark last.
Assuming he gets closer to the norm this week, he'll benefit from another great matchup against a Jacksonville defense that's top five in yards and touchdowns allowed to tight ends since Week 5. Better still, they've given up 16.8, 17.2, and 24 fantasy points to an opposing tight end in three of the last four weeks.
Bottom Line: Hockenson is projected to finish as TE16 with 8.68 points this week. I say he produces TE1 numbers to finish inside the top 12.
Out: Jake Ferguson Dallas vs. Philadelphia
I'll be honest. I'm torn on this one. With Cooper Rush taking over for an injured Dak Prescott, Ferguson seems like one of two viable fantasy assets in this offense (CeeDee Lamb is obviously the other).
I realize sitting Ferguson will be difficult at a position with such a narrow band of consistent fantasy options. So this is more an effort to get you to temper expectations than to avoid him altogether.
All that said, in five starts in 2022, Rush completed 15 passes to his tight ends. Ferguson, who caught seven of those passes, was one of four players at the position in Dallas that season. Dalton Schultz, Peyton Hendershot, and Sean McKeon were the others. Cockroft that since the start of the 2021 season, Rush, who had one start that year as well, has targeted a tight end on 17 percent of his attempts, while Prescott has done so 22 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, and only four players at the position have scored more than six points against them (Evan Engram with 9.5, Mike Gesicki with 14.3, David Njoku with 8.10, and Cade Otton with 11.2).
Bottom line: Ferguson is projected to finish as TE6 with 11.27 fantasy points. I say he finished outside the top 10 this week.
Outlier of the Week
As Sigmund Bloom suggested in his Week 10 Offensive Sleepers, "It’s been a struggle for Dolphins pass catchers in fantasy. Losing Tua Tagovailoa for four games felt like losing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as well." Investors will tell you it hasn't been great for either of them, even with Tua back in the mix. Meanwhile, Grant points out that Smith’s target share held steady over the past month. He’s gone four straight games with at least six targets. He’s posted at least four receptions in all those games. This week, they'll be facing a Rams defense that has given up massive games to tight ends this year. Brock Bowers had ten catches against them, and Tucker Kraft had two touchdowns, including a 66-yarder. Smith is projected to finish as TE15 with 9.2 points. I say he exceeds both.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
