In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that -- something I demonstrated with miserable efforts in Week 3 and Week 7. I needed a rebound in Week 8. I was better, even if it wasn't as much better as I would have liked. Let's review:
- I was in on Broncos QB Bo Nix, and not just because he was playing the Panthers. It was because of his rushing equity -- and because he was playing the Panthers. Turned out he did most of the work through the air, but I predicted he would finish with more than 20 fantasy points. Thanks to a four-TD output and career-high passing totals (including three touchdowns of the TDs), he finished with 29.8. That's a hit.
- I was out on Seahawks signal-caller Geno Smith, who faced a tough matchup against the Bills. He was projected to finish as QB12 with 17.82 points. My prediction had him falling short of both those numbers. He finished as QB29 with 8.1. A hit.
- I was in on Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt going up against a super-generous Raiders run defense. Turns out Hunt took a backseat to the passing attack in this one. He was all right, but I predicted him to surpass his projections to finish as a top-10 fantasy back. He finished as RB21 with 13.3 points. This was a miss.
- I was out on Saints running back Alvin Kamara, who faced a tough matchup against a previously stingy Chargers run defense. Kamara was projected to finish as RB16 with 15.59 points. I thought that was aggressive. Kamara thought otherwise. I predicted a finish outside RB2 territory. He finished as RB12, or just inside RB1 territory. Another miss.
- I was in on Browns wideout Cedric Tillman. His new role as Cleveland's alpha and a super-favorable matchup against a generous (and injury-depleted) Baltimore secondary had me excited. Jameis Winston put the frosting on the cake with a 300-yard passing day. Tillman was projected to finish as WR48. I predicted a WR2 or better finish. And while I didn't necessarily expect a WR3 overall outcome, I'll take the hit.
- I was out on Arizona's Marvin Harrison Jr., coming off three straight single-digit outings. I didn't think Miami would be a course correction game for him. He was projected to finish as WR32 with 11.73 points. I predicted the rookie would fall outside WR3 territory. He was WR5 overall on the day with 23.1 fantasy points. He corrected course. I did not. It's a miss.
- I was in on Packers tight end Tucker Kraft, mostly because he was going up against a Jacksonville defense that's offered minimal resistance to the position. Kraft was projected to finish as TE10 with 10.1 points. I predicted he would exceed both numbers. He finished as TE8 with 16.8 points. A hit.
- I was out on Baltimore's Mark Andrews, who was enjoying a bit of a touchdown run heading into Week 8. The Browns were a tough enough matchup for me to believe the touchdown streak would end. It didn't. Andrews found the end zone for a third-straight week, and my prediction that he would fall short of his TE15, 8.47-point finish, is what fell short. Andrews was TE11 with 8.47 fantasy points. That touchdown was the difference between a hit and the miss I ended up with here.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I predicted Denver wideout Troy Franklin would ride the coattails of his Nix and outperform his WR53, 8.9-point projection to finish with double-digit scoring. He scored 1.9 points. I blame math for not allowing me to remove the decimal point. But mostly? I blame myself . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 8: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 33 hits; 39 misses.
Fortunately, I have plenty of time to climb back to .500 again. It starts with Week 9.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay
In a recent Polarizing Players article, I wrote, "Two things can be true at once," to argue that Mahomes can be the most effective quarterback in the NFL and still not be a great fantasy option. The proof is evident. Mahomes is a primary reason the Chiefs are undefeated despite losing three major offensive pieces: Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown. But as a fantasy player, you have to be able to divorce the name from the numbers. Mahomes' performance so far this season falls right into line with what he's become -- a solid fantasy QB2.
Heading into this week's game, the last time Mahomes had a top-10 weekly fantasy finish was Week 12 last year.
But last week was better. Enough to serve as a reminder that a fantasy-friendly version of the QB still exists. As SI.com's Michael Fabiano suggested, "Mahomes looked like that old fantasy superstar we knew and loved last week with two touchdown passes and 18.2 points." Even though he finished as QB16, Week 8 was the first time he's scored more than 18 points since that aforementioned Week 12 game last season.
So am I chasing points here?
Nah. This week is mainly about the matchup. The Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points per game (23.3) to QBs this season. In the past four weeks, they've yielded more than 300 passing yards per game and given up 14 total touchdown passes. But there's also been a noticeable change to the Chiefs' offensive approach. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out this week that from Weeks 1-4, Mahomes had just one game with 30-plus pass attempts. But he has 38 or more pass attempts in two of his last three games. He also has five games in a row now with five or more rush attempts.
Bottom Line: Mahomes' Week 9 Footballguys' Projections call for a QB7 finish with 18.88 points. I predict he breaks the 20-point barrier for the first time since last November.
Out: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami at Buffalo
Last week, I was out on Geno Smith in large part due to the matchup against the Bills. Buffalo is giving up the ninth-fewest points -- 14.6 points per game -- to opposing quarterbacks. All the figures I cited for Smith last week -- that they've allowed just one opposing quarterback, Lamar Jackson, to surpass 18 points in a single game and that only two have topped 16 points -- still stand.
But this week, we can also factor in Tagovailoa's history against his divisional rival. According to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft, Tua has averaged only 10.9 fantasy points per game in eight previous meetings with the Bills (exceeding 14 just three times). He has seven TDs and 10 interceptions in those games, with just one multiple-TD game. He's only cracked 240 passing yards twice against Buffalo. In their most recent meeting, he threw for 145 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions before his latest concussion in Week 2.
Tua returned from the concussion he suffered in that first meeting with Buffalo last Sunday and scored just 14.7 fantasy points against the Cardinals at home. Tagovailoa has yet to hit 19 fantasy points in a game this season, and NFL Network's Michael F. Florio reminded readers he was fantasy's QB23 in the second half of last season.
Bottom line: I'm not pretending expectations are high here. Tua's Week 9 projections call for a QB24 finish and 15.06 points. I'm expecting him to fall short of both those numbers.
Running Back
In: Chase Brown, Cincinnati vs. Las Vegas
We should never be entirely comfortable placing high expectations on a running back in a timeshare. But there are matchups where I'm less worried about the split than I might otherwise be.
The Raiders are one of those matchups. Berry writes, "Next up to the Vegas buffet of fantasy points is Brown, who, over the past two games, has handled 71 percent of Cincinnati's RB rushes."
And this week, it could be more.
His batterymate, Zack Moss, was unable to practice Friday and is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game.
With an even clearer path to workload, Brown could genuinely shine. Even with Moss in the mix, he's hit double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games and has touchdown upside. The Raiders have allowed at least 13.3 fantasy points to every lead back they've faced this season and a 15-point game to a running back in seven of eight weeks -- including three who have scored more than 20 fantasy points this season.
Bottom Line: Brown sits at RB12 on the Footballguys Week 9 projections with an expected 16.74. I say he exceeds both projections.
Out: J.K. Dobbins, LA Chargers at Cleveland
As Cockroft wrote, "After a sizzling start, one that earned him a larger role in the offense, Dobbins has cooled statistically."
In this week's Rushing Matchups, Footballguys Devin Knotts and Justin Howe add to that by noting the entire rushing attack is struggling. As a result, Dobbins is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry over the last five games as he has not topped 100 yards since his explosive Week 1 and 2 performances, where he topped 130 yards in each of those games.
Much of his success in those games came from explosive plays. They've been fewer and farther between since. Over the five-game span Knotts and Howe outline, Dobbins has only seven explosive runs (tied for 22nd in the league), has been stuffed at or behind the line 19 times (tied for third-most), and has rushed for 64 yards beneath expectation per Next Gen Stats (worst in the league).
Dobbins, who's enjoyed at least 17 touches in six consecutive games, will still get decent volume. But Cleveland's defense has been stingy to opposing running backs, allowing just 84.3 rushing yards per game and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Most notably, they held Saquon Barkley to 7.4 points (Week 6) and Derrick Henry to 14.7 (Week 8). Only one back, Devin Singletary, who scored 20.8 in Week 3, has more than 15 points against them this season.
Bottom Line: Dobbins is projected to finish as RB14 with 16.2 points. I say he's held to fewer than 16 points.
Wide Receiver
In: Ladd McConkey, LA Chargers at Cleveland
If it's hard to run against the Browns, throwing against them has been less daunting. As ESPN's Mike Clay explained, Cleveland has one of the league's most-talented cornerback rooms, but it hasn't translated to success in 2024. The Browns have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers. In fact, the Browns have allowed an opposing receiver to hit 13 points in every game but one.
Enter McConkey, who is emerging as the Chargers' most dangerous playmaker.
As I mentioned in this week's Fantasy Notebook, the Chargers traded up in the second round of the 2024 draft for performances like the one McConkey had last Sunday against the Saints. He set career-high marks in receptions (six), yards (111), and touchdowns (two) while working primarily out of the slot.
He became the first Chargers rookie receiver with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in a game since 2013, when Keenan Allen scored three. McConkey, who head coach John Harbaugh compared former Panthers and Ravens great Steve Smith Jr., has also drawn considerable praise from Justin Herbert, who has talked about how McConkey makes throwing the ball easy for him. Also, Herbert has averaged 314 passing yards per game over the last two weeks.
One last note here, as Florio pointed out, the Browns use man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and McConkey ranks fifth in the NFL in yards against man.
Bottom Line: McConkey is projected to finish as WR27 with 12.92 points in Cleveland. I say he finishes well inside WR2 territory.
Out: Zay Flowers, Baltimore vs. Denver
There are multiple layers to this one. Flowers has been on fire recently, scoring at least 18.5 points in three of his last four games. None of those games was against Patrick Surtain II and the Denver secondary, whoever.
The Broncos have allowed just four scores and the fourth-fewest points per game to wide receivers. What's more, just one receiver has scored more than 14.2 points in a game against them on the perimeter -- where Flowers lines up nearly 70 percent of the time -- this season. Meanwhile, Clay notes that Surtain has shadowed DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans, and Garrett Wilson, aligning against the four standout receivers on a combined 86 of 122 routes, including 77 of 80 perimeter routes.
The receiving lines of the four were as follows: Metcalf (4 targets-3 receptions-29 yards-0 touchdowns), Pickens (4-2-29-0), Evans (3-2-17-0) and Wilson (7-5-41-0). Overall, the Surtain and the Broncos have held opposing WR1s to a league-low 7.9 points per game.
Cockroft added to all that by pointing out that Flowers has as many games with 12 targets as he does games with two or fewer in the past five weeks (two each), and he has played almost entirely into the hands of his matchups in 2024. He totaled 9.6 fantasy points on 12 targets against the Chiefs and Bills, both bottom-eight wide receiver matchups, which is also where the Broncos place.
Diontae Johnson's arrival in Baltimore could limit Flowers' targets further at some point. But even if it's not this week, Denver's focus on limiting outside receivers could lead to more work for tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely this week.
Bottom line: The projections team here at Footballguys recognizes all this. Flowers is projected to finish as WR28 with 12.64 points. I'll take it a step further and predict single-digit fantasy points for Flowers.
Tight End
In: Sam LaPorta, Detroit at Green Bay
As I noted in this week's Polarizing Players, Sam LaPorta celebrated National Tight End Day with a rare finish inside the top 10 at the position on the steam of a six-catch, 48-yard, one-TD outing on six targets against the Titans. His 16.8 fantasy points were a season-high.
LaPorta also drew a season-high 33 percent target share. That it came with Jameson Williams serving the first game of a two-week suspension probably isn't a coincidence. With Jamison Williams set to sit out again, LaPorta's in a great spot to build on a solid outing.
In the past four weeks, four tight ends have scored in double digits against the Packers -- two of them last week, when Jacksonville's Evan Engram (13.6) and Brenton Strange (10.9) combined for well over 20 points. LaPorta averaged better than 13 points per game against the Packers last season.
Bottom Line: LaPorta is projected to finish as TE12 with 9.24 points this week. I say he finishes inside the top 10 with double-digit fantasy points.
Out: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay vs. Detroit
Last week, Kraft was the guy I was in on at this position. He's been a solid player for over a month now. Despite three straight games with a target share below 13 percent, Kraft has scored 12-plus points four times in the last five weeks. That includes three games with 16-plus points.
But the Lions aren't as generous to the tight end position as his own team.
Only one tight end has scored in double digits against the Lions -- and that was unknown Seahawks reserve AJ Barner, who delivered 10.7 points in Week 4). The Rams' Colby Parkinson had the best yardage total against Detroit, finishing with 47 yards. The next highest total by a tight end was 33 by Tennessee's Josh Whyle last week. Meanwhile, as Cockroft notes, more notable tight ends like Cade Otton (minus-0.4, Week 2), Trey McBride (5.5, Week 3), and Jake Ferguson (4.1, Week 6) came up small against the Lions.
Adding to the concern, quarterback Jordan Love (groin) is listed as questionable for this one. If Love can't go, Cockroft points out Kraft had two of his worst games of 2024 with Malik Willis under center, scoring a combined 6.0 points on five targets in Weeks 2 and 3. Add in a game-day forecast that includes rain, and this is an easy call.
Bottom line: Kraft is projected to finish as TE13 with 8.91 points; I say he falls short of both those projections.
Outlier of the Week
Christian Kirk's season is over in Jacksonville, and Parker Washington, who caught three passes for 46 yards against the Packers after Kirk was hurt last week, moves into the starting lineup to fill the void. While the Eagles pass defense has improved noticeably after a slow start this season, I'm with Footballguy Sigmund Bloom, who contends in his Week 9 Offensive Sleepers that Washington is set up for a big game in his first start. Remember, Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are both listed as questionable for this one. Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. are also questionable. Washington and Evan Engram are the healthiest options in Trevor Lawrence's arsenal. Meanwhile, Washington is projected to finish as WR60 with 7.81 points, right where he finished last week. I say he exceeds both numbers.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
