In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, my outcomes often reflect that. The fact I was coming off three reasonably strong weeks almost ensured a fall in Week 7. I would have preferred it to be less precipitous, yet here we are.
- I was in on Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. Why? Because I've been in all along, and I'm not ready to give up. If you'd like to better understand my position, Footballguy Matt Waldman lays it out nicely in this week's Gutcheck. All that said, I tried to limit this to a baby step by predicting Richardson would exceed his QB13 projection by at least a single spot. He did not. His QB21 finish barely made him a viable starter in two-QB leagues. This was a miss.
- I was out on 49ers signal-caller Brock Purdy, who was projected to finish as QB11. Based on a tough matchup against the Chiefs, I predicted he would fall just outside QB1 territory. Turns out our projectors nailed it. I did not. A miss.
- I was in on Raiders running back Alexander Mattison, who was projected to finish as RB23 with 11.56 points. Based on role, recent production, and a matchup against the Rams, I predicted a finish inside the top 20. Mattison was RB19 on the week. A much-needed hit.
- I was out on Packers running back Josh Jacobs as an RB1 against the Texans. He was projected to finish as R12 with 15.23 points. He finished as RB13, so this was a hit. I should qualify it, though. Jacobs' RB2 finish came despite scoring 20.2 points in this one.
- I was in on Patriots receiver Demario Douglas, predicting him to finish well ahead of his WR34 projection. I was looking for a WR24 or better finish. Whether his bangers and mash didn't sit well with him or the long trip to London opened the door to a bug, Douglas was dealing with stomach issues and did not play for much of the second half against the Jaguars. The end result was a miss.
- I was out on Steelers wideout George Pickens, who was going up against one of the NFL's stingiest pass defenses. The previous high score by a wideout against the Jets was Justin Jefferson's 15.2 points. It seemed quite reasonable to predict Pickens would fall short of his WR20 projection and into WR3 territory. Pickens and Russell Wilson saw it differently. Very differently. Pickens posted the best game of the year by a wideout against the Jets secondary, finishing as WR3 with 22.1 points.
- I was in on Texans tight end Dalton Schultz, who was projected to finish as TE11. I predicted a top-10 finish and top-5 upside. Instead, on the worst day of C.J. Stroud's career, the second-year signal-caller completed 11 of 20 passes for a career-low 86 yards with no touchdowns; Schultz wasn't even an afterthought. He finished as TE35 -- yes, 35 -- with 3.8 points. An abject failure and a colossal miss.
- I was out on Browns TE David Njoku. More I was out on a Cleveland passing attack that I didn't feel had the gumption to fuel Njoku's TE6 projection. I said in writing that I almost hoped I was wrong in predicting a finish outside the top 10. Be careful what you wish for. Despite the Browns needing three quarterbacks on the day, Njoku finished as TE1 -- yes, 1 -- with 23.6 points. Good grief. Huge miss.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I predicted Eagles tight end Grant Calcaterra would top his TE18 and 7.75-point projections while filling in for the injured Dallas Goedert against the Giants. Sigh. Calcaterra finished Sunday's win as TE44 with 1.5 points. I blame Saquon Barkley's successful revenge game, a poor showing by many top prospects that skewed the entire field, and of course, I mostly blame me -- but that goes without saying . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 7: 2 hits; 7 misses.
Season: 29 hits; 34 misses.
It's on to Week 8 to begin the climb to get back over .500 again.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Bo Nix, Denver vs. Carolina
It's like the perfect storm of rushing equity, improved passing, and irresistible matchup.
For those who haven't been following along, Nix has posted 19-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry noted, a big reason is that he’s averaging 6.2 fantasy points per game this season just from rushing. He's delivered 43.5 fantasy points on rushing plays this season, which is fifth-best among all QBs. He's run for 136 yards over the last two weeks alone. Better still, ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes Nix has begun showing growth as a passer, completing 63 percent of his attempts and tossing four touchdown passes in the past three weeks. Daniels' backup, Marcus Mariota, came in and racked up 19.6 fantasy points.
Nice eh? But wait . . . Nix is going up against a Panthers defense, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (18.6) despite facing only two who rank among the top 15 for the season. One of those two, Jayden Daniels (Joe Burrow in Week 4 was the other), only played 10 snaps against the Panthers' defense last week and still ran for 50 yards. Beyond that, Berry notes that Carolina’s defense allows 6.7 points more per game than any other team and has given up multiple touchdown passes in six of seven games.
Given all this, Mile High Sports' Dan Mohrmann thinks the goal in this one is pretty simple. "Nix needs to throw for over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns, and the Broncos offense needs to score at least 42 points," Morhmann contends. He went on to explain this is a chance to get a young franchise quarterback a ton of confidence throwing the ball. Either way, as Cockroft suggested, "Nix's statistical floor is remarkably high for this matchup, and if the score remains close deep into the game, he'll have a shot at 25-plus points."
Bottom Line: Nix's Footballguys projections are aggressive. He's projected as QB5 with 19.71 points. I think that's right in the sweet spot, so I'll be slightly more aggressive than the projection and slightly less than Cockroft. I say Nix finishes with 20 fantasy points or more.
Out: Geno Smith, Seattle vs. Buffalo
Smith is having a solid season. He's QB8 on the year, averaging 17.4 points per game. Much of his success has been based on volume. Smith leads the NFL in attempts (279) and completions (191). He's on pace to throw for more than 4,800 yards. Touchdowns have been elusive. In fact, after finishing with the third-most such games from 2022-2023, Smith had multiple passing touchdowns in a game for the first time in 2024 in last Sunday's win over the Falcons.
Still, he finished with a final stat line that was more solid than spectacular, connecting on 18 of 28 attempts for 207 yards with the two scoring strikes.
This week, he goes up against a Buffalo defense that's giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. They've allowed just one opposing quarterback -- Lamar Jackson -- to surpass 18 points in a single game. Only two have topped 16 points.
Adding to the intrigue, DK Metcalf is listed as doubtful and almost certainly won't play in this one. He's the only Seattle receiver inside the top 50.
Bottom line: Smith is projected to finish as QB12 with 17.82 points. I say he falls short of both those numbers.
Running Back
In: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City at Las Vegas
Who landed in a better spot this year than Hunt? With Isiah Pacheco sidelined by a broken leg, Hunt has been able to carve out a proper featured role in a Kansas City offense that relies more heavily on the run and less on explosive pass plays by Patrick Mahomes II. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, Hunt handled 73% of Kansas City's running back rushes last Sunday, down from his 84% rate in Week 5, when he ran for over 100 yards against the Saints. Still, it was more than enough for him to deliver solid fantasy totals as he led the team in rushing and scored a pair of touchdowns against the 49ers.
In his three games with the team, Hunt has seen 65 percent of the team’s carries while averaging 23 touches for 95 yards and one touchdown per game.
This week, Hunt goes up against the Raiders and a 25th-ranked run defense that NFL Network's Marcas Grant points out "has been trampled in nearly every game this season." Vegas has allowed more than 100 rushing yards and at least one touchdown in six of seven games. They're the only defense in the league to give up a 15-point performance to a running back in each of the season's first seven weeks. Four of those backs have finished inside the top 12 against the Raiders.
Grant summed up: "With the Raiders being solid against the pass, this could be a field day for Hunt and the K.C. run game."
Bottom line: Hunt is projected to finish as RB12 with 16.03 points. I say he finishes inside the top 10 in this one.
Out: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans at LA Chargers
As NBC Sports' Kyle Dvorchak framed it this week, "The Spencer Rattler offense is one from which no fantasy value can escape."
That includes Kamara, who, despite his overall RB2 status and 20.2 point-per-game average, has tailed off with Rattler at the helm of this offense. In two games with the rookie starting in place of the injured Derek Carr, Kamara is averaging just 2.8 yards per touch while racking up 88 yards from scrimmage on 31 opportunities.
Adding to the concern, Kamara, who has been a limited participant in practice this week, revealed he broke his hand against the Kansas City Chiefs three weeks ago. This is in addition to a rib injury Kamara has played through this season. He's averaged 2.5 yards per carry in his 20 carries since hurting his hand, including a seven-carry, 10-yard game last week against the Denver Broncos.
Meanwhile, the Saints are seven-point underdogs this week.
If all that doesn't seem conducive to a successful rushing attack, neither does a Chargers defense that's allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year. Only one back has hit the 100-yard mark against them, and no player has had multiple rushing touchdowns in a single game going up against Los Angeles, which has given up just three rushing TDs all year.
Bottom Line: Kamara is projected to finish as RB16 with 15.59 points. I have him finishing outside RB2 territory.
Wide Receiver
In: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Another case of opportunity meeting a fantastic matchup. With Amari Cooper dealt to the Bills last week, Tillman, who entered the game with just five targets this season, moved into the starting lineup opposite Jerry Jeudy and dominated the workload. He turned a career-high 12 targets against the Bengals into 18.1 fantasy points. NBC Sports' Zachary Krueger noted those 12 targets are tied for the most any Browns receiver has seen this season when Cooper saw 12 targets in Week 3 against the Giants.
As Zachariason noted, Jeudy hasn't gotten higher than 13.2 points this season, and he's hit the 25 percent target share Tillman drew against Cincinnati just once.
It's fair to wonder how sustainable Tillman's workload is. But with Jameis Winston, a more than willing gunslinger, set to start at quarterback this week, Tillman's numbers are noteworthy.
Also noteworthy is the matchup against a generous Ravens pass defense that's allowed a league-high 2,159 passing yards. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, Baltimore has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and the third-most points to the perimeter, where Tillman lines up 65 percent of the time. The Ravens have also allowed a league-high 12 touchdowns to wide receivers, and five wideouts have already hit the 20-point mark against them.
Grant points out that four receivers have had at least 80 yards, six have had at least six receptions, and three have scored multiple touchdowns against the Ravens in 2024. In addition, Winston's career 10.1 air yards per attempt (compared to Deshaun Watson's 6.9 this season) could help Tillman further exploit a Ravens defense that has given up a league-high 20 receptions of at least 25 yards this season.
The Browns being eight-point underdogs suggests a pass-heavy gamescript.
Bottom Line: Tillman is projected as WR48 with 9.26 fantasy points. I expect a WR2 or better finish in what's likely to be a pass-heavy day with Cleveland an eight-point underdog.
Out: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona at Miami
Remember the good old days, back in August, when we viewed Harrison as a fantasy WR1 and drafted him as such? Why wouldn't we? Harrison arrived as a prototypical No. 1 receiver set for immediate NFL success.
Fast forward to today. As FantasyPros' Derek Brown wrote, "Harrison is the WR43 in fantasy points per game, which isn’t the way that we all thought his rookie season would play out." Brown went on to note that in half of his full games played, Harrison has finished as a WR3 or higher (WR1, WR20, and WR27). All three of those games came in the first four games this year.
Since then? Harrison's numbers have dipped in the last three weeks. As SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes, the rookie has failed to score more than six points in any of those games (one of which he missed most of due to a concussion). In addition, Harrison’s receiving yards per game average since his explosive performance WR1 output in Week 2 against the Rams.
Sunday's game against the Dolphins doesn't seem like a "get-right" spot.
According to Clay, Miami has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to WRs, and only one -- Metcalf -- has reached 15 fantasy points against them.
Bottom Line: Harrison is projected to finish as WR32 with 11.73 points. Given the matchup, expecting him to double his six-point ceiling in the last three weeks in this matchup seems like a reach. As Footballguys Devin Knotts and Justin Howe suggested in their Week 8 Passing Matchups, it's hard to project a significant turnaround unless Arizona can find more rhythm in the passing game. I say Harrison finishes outside WR3 territory.
Tight End
In: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay at Jacksonville
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio noted this week, Kraft has scored 17.3, 24.8, 3.5, and 12.3 points over the last month. While Florio readily acknowledges that 3.5 output wasn't ideal, the bigger-picture outlook is that sort of upside is huge at the tight-end position. In three of seven games this year, Kraft has a touchdown catch, including one game with multiple TD grabs.
That touchdown upside can carry him through otherwise quiet weeks. For example, Fabiano points out that Kraft was only targeted four times last week, but he made it work with a touchdown and the aforementioned 12.3 points.
But it's the matchup I want to leverage here. The Packers will square off against the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense this week as the Jaguars concede 273.9 passing yards per game.
More to the point, Jacksonville has allowed four different tight ends to produce 11-plus points, including Cole Kmet and Hunter Henry, who both scored 17-plus points against them in their last two games.
But I need Kraft to get scoring opportunities as well.
Fortunately, the Jaguars' defense ranks 32nd in the NFL by allowing 2.3 passing touchdowns per game to opponents (16 total passing TDs). They've also allowed 14 opposing players to register a TD reception against them, which means two players have delivered multiple TD catches against them.
Bottom Line: Kraft is projected to finish as TE10 with 10.1 points this week. I like that projection, but I'll say Kraft exceeds both numbers.
Out: Mark Andrews, Baltimore at Cleveland
Look, I want to keep playing him, too.
Over the last three games, Andrews is the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Much of that success can be attributed to back-to-back touchdown games, with Andrews finding the end zone three times over that span.
Unfortunately, he isn't in good shape matchups-wise this week.
According to Brown, Cleveland has given up the seventh-fewest receiving yards and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Cockroft adds that the Browns have limited tight ends to 1.19 fantasy points per target this season, the third-fewest in the league. They held both Brock Bowers and Zach Ertz to their worst single-game scores this season and Jake Ferguson to his second-worst.
Bottom Line: Andrews is projected for a very realistic TE15 finish and 8.47 fantasy points. I say he falls short on both numbers.
Outlier of the Week
WR Troy Franklin, Denver
As noted in this week's Polarizing Players with Gary Davenport, Troy Franklin has emerged as the WR2 in the Denver offense. The rookie stepped to the forefront last week with a team-leading 23.1 percent target share and a 31.7 percent air-yard share. So how does this newfound role turn into week-winning upside? Two things. First, his built-in chemistry with Nix, Franklin's college quarterback at Oregon. Second, he's playing the Panthers. According to Brown, they're at their worst defending deep passes, and Franklin is second on the Broncos in deep targets, behind only Courtland Sutton.
Franklin is projected to finish as WR53 with 8.9 fantasy points. I say he hits double-digit scoring, and his big-play upside makes him a great, low-priced GPP option in DFS tournaments.
Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
