In and Out: Week 7 Edition

In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.

But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.

We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).

Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.

In And Out Accountability

Since the whole idea here is taking chances, the outcomes often reflect that. I fared reasonably well in Week 4 and Week 5. How'd I make it through Week 6? Let's see.

• I was in on Daniel Jones coming off multiple QB1 outings in a matchup with one of the NFL's most generous defenses. Even with Malik Nabers ruled out, it appeared to be an ideal setting . . . Except it was a prime-time game. It turns out that Jones was 1-13 in prime time heading into Sunday night. Now he's 1-14. I'm guessing it's no coincidence Jones fell short of my prediction that he would meet or exceed his QB8 and 18.59 projections. A miss.
• I was out on Josh Allen -- with good reason. Allen and the Bills offense had two down weeks. They were facing an incredibly tough matchup against a Jets defense that seemed likely to be fired up after a coaching change. I forgot one thing:

  Josh Allen is a superhuman.

  — ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 15, 2024

  Stop betting against superhumans. You'll miss like I did here.
• I was in on Tony Pollard, who was going up against a Colts defense that had allowed the most yards per game heading into this one. Pollard fared well, rushing for 93 yards with a touchdown. But I predicted a top-10 finish with better than 20 fantasy points. He delivered neither, finishing as RB15 with 17.8 points. Another miss. 
• I was out on Javonte Williams, who was projected to finish as RB17 with 13.08 points. I expected much less, predicting the Denver back would finish outside RB2 territory. Williams complied, finishing as RB38 with 6.6 points. Hello. A hit!
• I was in on DJ Moore in a fantastic matchup against a porous Jaguars pass defense. That was half right. Jacksonville was plenty generous as Caleb Williams threw for 226 yards with four touchdowns. Moore had 20 of those yards and zero of the touchdowns. It's fair to say he fell short of my WR1, 20 points or better prediction. A ginormous miss.
• I was out on Mike Evans. He was projected to finish as WR20 with 13.73 fantasy points. I cited a long history of failure against the Saints defense as reason to have him outside the top 24. He finished as WR71 with 5.4 points. I'll gladly take it as a hit. 
• I was in on Zach Ertz, who was projected to finish as TE15 with 7.78 points. I bet on Jayden Daniels and a dearth of high-end production from wideouts not named Terry McLaurin to propel Ertz to a top-12 finish at his position. Ertz finished as TE11 with 10.8 points. This is a hit.
• I was out on Kyle Pitts, who was projected to finish as TE10 with 8.7 points against the Panthers. Pitts had a great Week 5 showing, but I expected him to fall back to earth in this one and predicted a finish outside the top 12. He caught three passes for 70 yards, but the resulting 10-point output left him at TE13. Another hit.

As for my Outlier of the Week, I predicted Texans wideout Xavier Hutchinson, filling in for the injured Nico Collins, would finish inside the top 48 at his position. I'd like to say he fell short of my expectations, but that would not be a true reflection of the outcome. No, his WR111 finish wasn't even in the same universe. I blame Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell for dominating the available targets and for Joe Mixon and the rushing attack for dominating the Patriots defense . . .

Here's where we stand:

Week 6: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 27 hits; 27 misses.

I'm not going to lie. Sitting at .500 after a super-volatile September doesn't seem all that bad. 

Now, on to Week 7. 

But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.

In: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis vs. Miami

All right, friends. I'm not asking you to jump off the cliff with me. But I want you to hold my hand as I prepare to take this leap for all of us invested in the second-year signal caller.

In all seriousness, I have touted Richardson all year for all the obvious reasons. Physically, Richardson is one of the most impressive athletes in the league. As a rookie in 2023, Richardson showed what that might mean for fantasy managers. Richardson averaged over 25 fantasy points per contest in his first four NFL games. But it's been a mixed bag so far this season. He finished as QB5, QB25, and QB31 over the first three weeks. Richardson hasn't played since exiting the team's Week 4 tilt against the Steelers due to injury. He's set to return this week, and as NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe said, "The Colts desperately need to see Richardson, see him develop." 

More to the point, Wolfe added that Richardson had one of his best quarters of the season against the Steelers before he got hurt.

So this is simple. Statistically, Richardson has struggled. Through four games, he has completed 50.6 percent of his passes for 654 yards, three touchdowns, and six interceptions. But the athletic ability is there -- even if his rushing totals this year don't reflect that either. I'll also acknowledge the Dolphins aren't the best matchup. That said, FantasyPros' Derek Brown pointed out that Miami has struggled to defend a core foundation of Richardson's game. Their biggest weakness has been defending the deep ball, and 18.2 percent of Richardson's passes (the highest mark in the NFL) have been throws of 20 or more yards. Richardson leads the NFL in intended air yards per attempt at 12.7, and he has thrown a go route on 14.3 percent of his attempts this season. As Brown said, "This is a quiet get-right spot for Richardson."

NFL Network's Michael F. Florio summed it up nicely: "If he plays, I'd need to have another very good QB option to consider sitting Richardson because the second-year QB has such a high upside." 

Bottom Line: Again, I'm pot-committed here. You don't have to be. Richardson opened the week as QB13 on the Footballguys Week 7 Projections with 17.85 points. I'd like to believe he'll hit stride and flash the upside Florio described and that I invested in. But I'm taking baby steps here. I predict that Richardson will finish as a viable fantasy QB1 this week, meaning a QB12 or better finish.

Out: Brock Purdy, San Francisco vs. Kansas City

The Chiefs are headed to the Bay Area this weekend to play the 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII. In six games this season, Purdy has completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 1,629 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. In Super Bowl LVIII, Purdy finished 23-of-38 for 255 yards with one touchdown and no picks. More recently, he's coming off his second-best fantasy game of the season, but that came in a favorable matchup against Seattle.

This week will be more challenging. The Chiefs limited Purdy and the 49ers' offense to 19 points in regulation in their Super Bowl win. And even though Purdy fares better against the zone coverages Kansas City leans into than he does against man-to-man coverage, Florio notes the Chiefs have allowed just 13.5 points per game to QBs in their last four games, seventh-lowest over that span. Yes, Lamar Jackson lit them up in Week 1, but no QB has reached 18 fantasy points against them. They held Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins to 13 fantasy points or less in three straight weeks. 

While Purdy is QB8 on the season, averaging 17.6 points per game, he's been held to 16 points or fewer in four of six games.

Bottom Line: Our projections have Purdy finishing as QB11 with 18.23 points. I say he finishes just outside QB1 territory.