In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.

But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.

We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).

Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.

In And Out Accountability

Since the weekly goal here is predicting players who will outperform or underperform their projections and rankings, I'll take chances. In Week 3, I failed miserably. Week 4 was better. And Week 5 was, too. Let's see how much better.

• I was in on Geno Smith, predicting he would leverage a plus matchup against the Giants to exceed our QB6, 18.69 point projection. The Giants had different ideas. Smith was fine, finishing as QB9 with 22.6 points. Even though he exceeded the point total, I called for a top-5 finish, and Smith fell short. I'll take a miss here.
• I was out on Dak Prescott going up against a tough Pittsburgh defense. He was projected as QB10 with 17.81 points. I predicted he would finish "well" outside the top 12. Well, he finished as QB13, which is outside the top 12. So, I'm going to take the hit here, even though it was a closer call than I expected.
• I was in on Jerome Ford, who was projected as RB12 with 13.95 points. I predicted an RB1 finish. He was RB35. This was my reminder that counting on players without certain volume in bad offenses, even in great matchups, is risky. This was a miss.
• I was out on James Conner, who faced a daunting matchup in San Francisco. Given the circumstances, Conner's RB17, 12.82-point projections seemed reasonable. My expectations weren't far off that. I predicted Conner would fail to hit double-digit points and fall outside the top 20. He did neither. He scored 12 points to finish right at my cutoff as RB20. A miss.
• I was in on Brandon Aiyuk, in what I considered the least uncomfortable of last week's picks. He was projected as WR33 with 11.72 points. I said a WR2 finish would be a hit, but that I expected a WR1 finish. Aiyuk was WR10 with 22.7 points in a game that couldn't have been better set for his breakout. A hit.
• I was out on Diontae Johnson, who was coming off a pair of 20-plus point outings with Andy Dalton at quarterback. He was projected as WR6 with 16.48 points. I expected a WR2 or lower outcome due to a tough individual matchup and my belief that it would be more a Chuba Hubbard than a Dalton day. Johnson was WR 54 with 5.9 points. A hit.
• I was initially in on Evan Engram but switched to his backup, Brenton Strange when it became apparent Engram wouldn't return for this one. I liked Strange for the same reason I liked Engram: The matchup against Indy. I predicted a TE2 finish for Strange, who went into the weekend as our TE28. He finished as TE8 with 12.4 points, and I'll happily take this hit.
• I was out on Cole Kmet, who was projected as TE10 with 8.02 points. To his credit, Kmet beat his points projection by delivering 8.7. But he made good on my prediction of falling outside TE1 territory with a TE18 finish. A hit.

As for my outlier, I predicted a TE2 showing for the Giants' Theo Johnson. His TE17 finish fell right into line with that, even though my expectation was that Daniel Jones would focus on the short and intermediate routes with Malik Nabers out. I blame Darius Slayton, who demanded a Nabers-like target share with the real Nabers sidelined. But I'll still take the hit on Johnson  . . .

And just like that, we're over .500 with consecutive showings almost strong enough to make me forget that embarrassing 2-7 finish in Week 3.

Here's where we stand:

Week 5: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season:  23 hits; 22 misses.

Now, on to Week 6. One more time: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.

In: Daniel Jones, NY Giants vs. Cincinnati

Do I wish Malik Nabers, who was ruled out for a second-straight game due to a concussion, was available for this game? Yes. I also wished the same last week, when Jones finished as QB10 (with 22.1) points against a Seahawks defense with way more to offer than the Bengals, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and third-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. In their past three games, Cincinnati has allowed 271 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns and one interception. 

Jones, meanwhile, has thrown two TD passes in three of his five games this season. He's scored at least 18 fantasy points in those games, including the aforementioned QB10 finish last week, a QB11 finish in Week 3, and a QB7 outcome in Week 2. Again, Nabers' absence isn't ideal. Still, Darius Slayton did a credible enough impression in Seattle (catching eight of 11 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown), and Wan'Dale Robinson has also been a significant factor this season. 

Even if you're not impressed with the passing numbers, we shouldn't overlook Jones' rushing stats. As FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes, Jones ranks fifth in carries per game, fourth in red zone carries, and 13th in rushing yards among quarterbacks. It all adds up, kids.

Bottom Line: Jones' Footballguys Projections call for a QB10 finish with 18.3 points. This is a pleasantly aggressive projection. I like it, but Jones meets or exceeds both.

Out: Josh Allen, Buffalo at NY Jets

Don't look now, but Allen is off to his worst five-game start to a season since 2019. He had the worst completion rate of his career against Houston last Sunday, finishing just 9-of-30 for 131 yards with a touchdown -- although he still had 54 yards rushing on four attempts. Things won't get any easier for him this week. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft understated this week, "Allen's rebound prospects look poor for this matchup."

That's because the Jets continue to dominate opposing quarterbacks and receiving corps. After holding the previously productive Sam Darnold to just 4.2 fantasy points in Week 5, the Jets have allowed the third-lowest completion percentage (57.9 percent) and fewest yards per dropback (4.6) this season. Compounding the issue, New York has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts.

Adding to the concern, starting running back James Cook (toe) and top downfield receiving threat Khalil Shakir (ankle), who missed the Houston game, were unable to practice through Friday this week and their availability is uncertain. 

Bottom Line: Here's another case where I'm aligned with the Footballguys Projections team, who have Allen at QB13 with 18.04 points. That's a fair assessment, but I'll say Allen falls short on both numbers.

In: Tony Pollard, Tennessee vs. Indianapolis

We wondered heading into the season how the Titans might divide the workload between Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Coming out of the bye, we have a better idea of that. Pollard has averaged 18.5 touches per game, drawing a double-digit target share per contest. And even though Spears closed that gap a bit in Week 4, Pollard is the clear-cut leader, scoring 15-plus fantasy points in three of his first four games.  

That workload is meaningful this week as the Titans go up against a Colts defense that's allowed the fourth-most rushing yards, the fifth-most receiving yards, and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs. Six opposing running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points -- and two exceed 25 -- through five weeks.

The Colts have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards, the fifth-most receiving yards, and the ninth-most FPPG to opposing backs. They've allowed six running backs to hit double-digit fantasy points through five weeks. Two of them have exceeded 25 points, including Tank Bigsby, who scored 25.9 points last Sunday despite sharing his workload with Travis Etienne Jr..

Bottom Line: Again, Pollard's Footballguys Projection is quite reasonable. He's projected as RB10 with 15.43 points. I say he hits 20 points and finishes well inside the top 10.

Out: Javonte Williams, Denver vs. LA Chargers

Hey, I get the appeal here. It's the upward trajectory. Through the first weeks of the 2024 season, Williams was averaging 2.16 yards per carry. Then he rushed 16 times for 77 yards against the New York Jets in Week 4. Williams followed that up with 13 carries for 61 yards against the Raiders in Week 5, adding five receptions for 50 yards.

Following his first game this season with more than 100 yards from scrimmage, Williams has averaged 4.75 yards per carry over the last two weeks. As USA Today suggested, Williams certainly appears to be back on track with the Broncos, and his fantasy football stock is trending up.

But bigger picture, Williams has averaged 14 touches and 64 total yards while ranking 32nd in explosive run rate and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. And Brown believes Williams is in for a long day against a Chargers run defense that has kept a lid on opposing ball carriers, yielding the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate allowed.

The Sporting News' Vinny Iyer contends that Williams benefited greatly from the matchup with Las Vegas and a positive game script that allowed for high enough volume for him to post a season-high 16.1 fantasy points -- despite losing a pivotal touchdown to Jaleel McLaughlin. I don't know if he catches all those breaks this week.

Bottom Line: Williams' Footballguys Projection has him finishing as RB19 with 13.08 points. I have him outside RB2 territory.

In: DJ Moore, Chicago vs. Jacksonville (in London)

As much as I like Baltimore WR Zay Flowers' matchup against the Commanders' Benjamin St-Juste, I'm heading across the pond with this selection. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry put it, "In a crowded and talented Bears receiver room, Caleb Williams clearly has found his WR1 in Moore." That the veteran wideout has drawn at least a 20 percent target share every week this season lends credence to that notion.

As Berry further explained, that 20 percent target share matters because wide receivers who have seen a target share of 20 percent or higher against Jacksonville are averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game. More broadly, the Jaguars have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers (including the most to wideouts lining up on the perimeter, where Moore works 80 percent of the time). Seven receivers have produced 15-plus fantasy points against them. 

Meanwhile, Brown notes that Moore is sixth in the NFL in red-zone targets while also tying for the team lead in end-zone targets (five). Better still, he showed what his ceiling can be with a five-catch, 105-yard, two-touchdown outing against Carolina last week. He finished with 27.5 fantasy points.

Bottom Line: Moore's Footballguys Projection has him finishing as WR15 with 14.66 points. I say he finishes as a WR1 with 20 points or better.

Out: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Here we go again . . . As ESPN's Mike Clay put it, "Evans vs. Lattimore Round 12 is upon us." That would be Saints cornerback Marshawn Lattimore. And there's no love lost between these two. Two of those 12 meetings -- in 2017 and 2022 -- resulted in on-field incidents that led to Evans being ejected once and serving two one-game suspensions while losing more than $100,000 in fines.

Beyond that, as Cockroft notes, the results have been rather one-sided in Lattimore's favor. In their previous 11 head-to-head meetings, Evans averaged 5.2 targets and 9.6 fantasy points, and in only one of those contests did he score more than 13 points. In Week 1 of the 2018 season, he scored 27.7 points on seven catches for 147 yards and a touchdown. Evans left injured after only 15 pass plays in their lone matchup last season. 

Evans has averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game in 20 career games against New Orleans, compared to 17.1 in his 148 other games. 

Bottom Line: Evans' Footballguys Projection for this one has him finishing as WR18 with 14.27 points. It's another very reasonable projection, but I have him falling outside the top 20.

In: Zach Ertz, Commanders at Baltimore

Tight end has become a treacherous minefield for fantasy managers this year. Even players we considered among the most reliable assets at the position have proven not to be that. For example? If I had told you in August that Ertz would have outscored Sam LaPorta, Dalton Schulz, and Mark Andrews six weeks into the season -- and that none of the latter three had missed a game? You would have rightly thought I was insane. 

Yet here we are. 

Let me acknowledge that Ertz hasn't been great. He's currently TE19 on the season. He's turned 11 targets over the past two weeks into a meager 8.2 fantasy points. So it's not ideal. I'm not claiming it is -- any more than I'm claiming LaPorta, Schultz, or Dalton have been ideal. But here's the thing. Ertz leads Washington's tight ends in snaps. As NFL.com's Marcas Grant pointed out, he's second on the team -- behind only Terry McLaurin -- in routes run, air-yard share, targets (24), receptions (17), and receiving yards (160). Ertz also leads Washington in red-zone targets and has seven first downs among his 17 catches.

To recap: Ertz has a significant role in a Commanders offense that's the NFL's most prolific unit over the past four games. During that stretch, Washington has averaged an NFL-best 33.8 points and 409 yards per game, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels playing lights-out football despite not having a wideout beyond McLaurin with 125 receiving yards this season.

Meanwhile, Berry notes that Baltimore ranks in the bottom three in catches and yards allowed to the tight end position. The only thing the Ravens haven't done is yield a touchdown to the position. Let's see if Ertz can't change that.

Bottom Line: Like the others this week, Ertz's Footballguys Projection is on point. We have him finishing as TE17 with 7.79 points. I'm going out on a limb here and predict Ertz will finish inside the top 12 with double-digit points.

Out: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta at Carolina

Sure, Pitts is coming off a breakout performance after delivering 15.8 fantasy points and a TE6 performance against the Buccaneers. Let me remind you those numbers came on a night Kirk Cousins threw the ball 58 times, completing 42 of them en route to a Falcons single-game record 509 passing yards. 

So there was a lot of meat on the fantasy bone there.

Nonetheless, Pitts' eight targets only accounted for a 15-percent target share. As The Sporting News' Michael O'Hara suggests, in a normal game script with Cousins attempting 30-40 passes, a 15-percent target share likely won't cut it -- even in a favorable matchup against the Panthers. 

On the season, Pitts has seen an 11.8 percent target share, and while he's second on the team in red-zone targets, it's a low bar (he has three). As O'Hara said, "Expect Week 5 to be the highlight of yet another disappointing season for Pitts."

Bottom Line: Pitts' Footballguys Projections for this one align with his efforts on the season; we have him finishing as TE10 with 8.7 points. I have Pitts just outside of TE1 territory.

Outlier of the Week

The Texans lost wide receiver Nico Collins to a hamstring injury in their Week 5 win over the Bills. That creates an opening alongside Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell in three-receiver sets, and, as things stand now, Xavier Hutchinson has that role. The 2023 sixth-round pick played a season-high 48 offensive snaps (71 percent) against the Bills after Collins went down with his injury, while Robert Woods played just 16 (24 percent). As USA Today notes, Hutchinson, at 6-3, 210 pounds, is similar in stature to  Collins, so that may have influenced DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik to choose the young playmaker over Woods. The Texans may also view Hutchinson as the better outside receiver, the role Collins primarily operates in as opposed to the slot. Whatever the case, Hutchinson had two catches for 31 yards last week, and I'm with Footballyguy Sigmund Bloom in believing Hutchinson "could break out with a full week to prepare as a starter." Hutchinson is projected to finish as WR63 this week. I say he finishes inside the top 48 at the position.

You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.

Follow @footballdiehard