In and Out: Week 5 Edition

In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.

But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
 
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
 
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.

In And Out Accountability

Since the weekly goal here is predicting players who will outperform or underperform their projections and rankings, I'll take chances. In Week 3's In and Out, I took chances I shouldn't have. Fortunately, Week 4 was better. Let's see how much better.

• I was in on Baker Mayfield, who was projected just outside the QB1 range. I predicted a QB1 finish, and he was QB2 overall with a 28.9-point output. Easy hit.
• I was out on Anthony Richardson. Let me rephrase: I was reluctantly out on the second-year signal caller. I desperately wanted a better outcome, and after the second-year starter got off to a solid start against the Steelers, completing 3 of 4 passes for 71 yards with 26 rushing yards, I was ready to happily accept a miss. Instead, Richardson was hurt late in the first quarter and finished with an encouraging 5.2 fantasy points. I'm pleased with what I saw, bummed he got hurt, and I'm more than willing to take the hit here.
• I was in on Zack Moss. I predicted a top-12 finish. He was RB14 on the day with a respectable 17.8 points. If only I could have combined Chase Brown's surprising 23.2-point RB5 finish with Moss's output, I could have easily avoided this narrow miss.
• I was out on De'Von Achane at his Footballguys RB10, 16.06-point projection, but I predicted an RB2 finish. I'm no math major, but an RB45 finish is outside my expected range. This was a miss.
• I was in on Rome Odunze, suggesting a WR31 finish was the floor. I expected WR2-level production while suggesting WR1 output was well within his range of outcomes. Odunze was WR80 -- a massive miss.
• I was out on Garrett Wilson at his WR11, 15.5-point projection, citing his matchup with Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II. I predicted a WR3 finish, suggesting even that felt generous. It was. Wilson finished as WR33 with 9.1 points. A hit.
• I was in on Travis Kelce, feeling the veteran TE would rebound against a Chargers defense he tends to play well against. I was confident enough to predict that Kelce would finish better than his TE4, 10.49-point projection. Despite leaving minimal wiggle room, Kelce delivered, finishing as TE3 with 15.9 points -- a hit.
• I was out on Hunter Henry, who was projected to finish as TE7 with 9.13 points. My prediction had him falling well outside TE1 territory against the Niners. He obliged with a TE33 finish on 3.2 points. Another hit.

If only my outlier, Cardinals TE Elijah Higgins, played a second game. Even at that, he would have had to do better than the 3.2 points he posted against the Commanders in that imaginary second outing to meet or exceed his projected 6.79 points. I blame Kyler Murray, who seemed just a tad off in this one . . . 

It's always nice rebounding after a tough week. And make no mistake, my 5-4 finish in Week 4 was way more satisfying than my 2-7 finish in Week 3. 

Here's where we stand: 

Week 4: 4 hits; 4 misses.
Season:  16 hits; 19 misses.

Now, on to Week 5. One more time: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.

In: Geno Smith, Seattle vs. NY Giants

We probably should have seen this coming, right? As I outlined in a Fantasy Notebook this offseason, during his tenure at the University of Washington, new Seahawks play-caller Ryan Grubb ran a pass-heavy offense that ranked sixth in the FBS in total yards per game (487.0) and sixth in scoring (36.7). With Michael Penix Jr.. at quarterback, the Huskies led the FBS in passing yards per game (355.8) the past two seasons and ranked 15th in dropback percentage, calling passing plays 61.8 percent of the time.

Fast forward to this season, and Smith heads into Sunday's game against the Giants with the most passing yards (1,182) in the NFL. He's also thrown more passes than any other quarterback in the league. You all know how I feel about volume when it comes to running backs and receivers. Well, that translates to quarterback, at least when said quarterback is a moderately successful passer. Smith is that, although he's only thrown four touchdown passes this year.

That will change -- possibly this week. At the very least, as FantasyPros' Derek Brown suggests, Smith, who's topped 300 passing yards in each of the last two games, should have no issues posting another QB1 week against the Giants, who rank bottom 10 in TD rate and passer rating against -- especially in a game in which Seattle has one of the highest-implied team totals on the slate.

Bottom Line: According to the Footballguys Week 5 Projections, Smith will finish as QB6 with 18.69 points. I don't think I'm taking a huge chance to say he finishes better in both categories.

Out: Dak Prescott, Dallas at Pittsburgh

I know what you're thinking. The vaunted Steelers defense struggled to contain Colts backup Joe Flacco after the veteran took over for Anthony Richardson last Sunday. But Flacco's 15-fantasy point output was the highest by any quarterback against Pittsburgh's defense this season. Otherwise, Kirk Cousins scored 6.2; Bo Nix finished with 8.3; and Justin Herbert and Taylor Heinicke combined for 10 fantasy points.

As The Sporting News' Michael O'Hara noted, they have yet to allow a 250-yard passer and have surrendered just four passing touchdowns on the year. The Steelers also rank top eight in pressure rate, while teams facing Pittsburgh are averaging the sixth-fewest pass attempts per game. 

Meanwhile, as SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes, Prescott has not been all that great in the stat sheets, scoring fewer than 17 points in three of his first four games. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry added to that, noting that since the start of last season, Dak has averaged just 15.7 PPG on the road.

Bottom Line: Prescott's Week 5 Footballguys Projections are QB10 with 17.81 points. I say Prescott will not be the first quarterback this season to post starter numbers against Pittsburgh. Instead, he finishes well outside the top 12 this week.