IDP Stock Watch: IDP Risers After OTAs

Photo: Imagn Images

The NFL offseason is a perpetual motion machine. There’s always something going on—even in the so-called “slow periods.”

We’re in the midst of one. Organized team activities and mandatory minicamps are out of the way—the times of shorts and shells are over. When next teams gather, it will be in full pads for training camp. But that won’t happen until mid-July for rookies and later in the month for veterans. And right about the time vets arrive at training camp, IDP draft season will start ramping up in earnest.

Now, it’s important for fantasy managers not to overreact too much to what happens on the practice field at OTAs. Defensive coordinators are more inclined to tinker with different personnel groupings at OTAs. Those groupings won’t necessarily stick into training camp, much less the preseason or games that actually count.

But there is news that emanates from OTAs that absolutely should be of interest to IDP managers—especially where players' health is concerned. Defensive players who lost a big chunk of the preceding season to injury who appear to be fully healthy now can often be had at a discount on draft day. Conversely, players whose recovery isn’t going as planned could open a door of opportunity for other players to potentially enter the starting lineup.

The IDP Stock Watch will monitoring the rising (and falling) values of players throughout fantasy draft season. But for this inaugural edition, it’s defensive players whose fantasy value is trending up after OTAs.

IDP Risers After OTAs

EDGE Matthew Judon, New England

Judon was one of this analyst’s favorite value picks on the defensive line last year—I’m still angry at John Norton for sniping him in the King’s Classic Butkus Division draft last year. But as it turned out, I dodged a bullet—just four games into the season, Judon tore his bicep and was lost for the year. Now entering the final year of his contract, Judon told reporters he’s less concerned about an extension than about being 100 percent for Week 1.

“I'm just trying to come out here and play football, get ready for this upcoming season, and put our defense and ourselves in a position where we can win the most games or be the most effective,” Judon said. “I ain't worried about holding out, sitting out, kind of protesting…because that, last year, that stuff was trash. I ain't really like that. Like I'm a football player, I don't want to get into the agency side. So, I'm gonna come out here and play some football."

Judon is 31 and coming off a major injury. However, all indications are that his rehab is progressing well, and he’s plenty motivated to post big numbers in 2024. Judon amassed four sacks in those four games last year and racked up 28 in 2021 and 2022. If injury and contract concerns drive his draft-day price tag down, he could be a steal in 2024.

EDGE Byron Young, LA Rams

Young is something of an exception on this list, in that he isn’t making a return from injury. In fact, Young is trying to build on a quietly outstanding season in which he tallied 61 tackles and eight sacks. And as Young told Stu Jackson of the team’s website, he thinks that adding some bulk this offseason is the key to a breakout Year 2.

"It's good to be bigger and fast," Young said. "They wanted me to see if I get to this weight and see if I could play with that, see if I could sustain that and that's what I'm doing right now. It feels great. Getting close to up to 260, so it's good, and I don't look bad. That's one thing that I would worry about – I didn't want to get the weight and then not look great. But it's definitely something that helps me with the run game, pass game, setting the edge and all of that, for sure."

Young actually had more total tackles, sacks, and fantasy points last year than the 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson of the Houston Texans. But while Anderson is being taken as a top-12 defensive lineman in many drafts, Young is all but an afterthought. If he does improve on his rookie season, he could be a league-winning value this year.