IDP Start-Sit, Studs and Duds: Week 12

The fantasy football regular season has just a few weeks remaining now. That makes Week 12 (and the couple that will follow) incredibly important.

No pressure.

For those fortunate fantasy managers who are 8-3 or better, there's the matter of securing a first-round bye and hitting the postseason with a head of steam. For folks who are 4-7 or worse, there is either the faintest flicker of playoff hopes or at least the opportunity to play spoiler.

Misery really does love company.

And for IDP squads who are 7-4, 6-5, or 5-6, the next few weeks will determine their fates. There's still time for things to fall completely apart—or for the final push that puts them over the top and into fantasy football's second season. That gives them the opportunity to continue their pursuit of a championship.

With every matchup so important, every point in those matchups becomes critical as well. Every lineup decision becomes the one that could mean a win that keeps hope alive and a loss that could effectively end the season.

It's what makes this hobby so fun—and what causes so much indigestion while playing it.

Fortunately, you have Pepto-Bismol—in the form of IDP Studs and Duds here at Footballguys.

Each week during the 2024 season, I'll point out some Individual Defensive Players who could be set to exceed expectations this week (Studs), as well as some that, for whatever reason, are riskier plays than normal (Duds).

This isn't necessarily to say that every "Stud" is a must-start (it depends on your other options) or that every "Dud" should be glued to your bench (just that the odds of a letdown week are greater than usual).

As if IDP managers didn't have enough trouble, Week 12 is the first of the two Byepocalypses. Six teams are off this week—the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and New York Jets. We won't get into how many big names in IDP that takes off the board.

It's just too depressing.

Numbers in parentheses denote ranking in fantasy points allowed to that position in 2024 in The Godfather's Default IDP Scoring. 

IDP Stud of the Week: LB T.J. Edwards, Chicago (vs. MIN) (1)

Edwards was one of the league's most productive linebackers the past two seasons, eclipsing 150 total tackles in 2022 and 2023. However, the 28-year-old's numbers have dropped this season, and with the Bears struggling the past few weeks, Edwards told reporters that the team was candid with one another about what needed to happen this week against the Minnesota Vikings.

"We weren't sugarcoating anything," he said. "Stuff that was said, I'll keep in house. But I think it was just very genuine and real. There's an understanding that from coaches to players, we all need to be better. ... In this league, the really good teams take accountability. Not just players but coaches as well. And I feel that we have a team that does that. But again, it's one thing to say how good we can be and all those things, but it's another thing to go do it on Sunday."

Edwards' production has actually taken a turn for the better during Chicago's slump—including a 12-tackle effort with an interception a couple of weeks ago. The Vikings have surpassed the Cleveland Browns as the best fantasy matchup for linebackers, so Edwards should hit double-digits again in Week 12.

IDP Dud of the Week: EDGE Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas (vs. DEN) (30)

It has been a miserable season all around for both the Las Vegas Raiders and edge rusher Maxx Crosby. The team is out of the race for the postseason. Crosby's numbers are way off last year's pace—he ranks outside the top 20 in fantasy points among defensive ends for the season. But he said on a podcast appearance he's using the doubt and negativity as fuel down the stretch.

"It's been a [tough] season, to say the least. I seriously can't describe the feeling, being part of such a tough year," he said. "You couldn't have told me this was going to be the result. My goals never change. I love the doubt. I love the negativity. It's just another opportunity to rise, and I plan on doing that. Keep leading, keep showing up, keep being the example, and that's all I can do."

Crosby hasn't been bad this year by any stretch—even with very little help from his fellow linemen, he still has 6.5 sacks. But Crosby is also way off his tackle pace of the past two seasons, and he hasn't logged a sack in three weeks. It will be four after Sunday's visit from the Broncos. Bo Nix doesn't play like a rookie—he has been dropped just 18 times all season.

Week 12 IDP Studs

EDGE Nik Bonitto, Denver (at LV) (5): Bonitto has been a machine this season, averaging a sack a game over the past nine weeks. He'll hit double-digits for the season Sunday against a Raiders team that has given up the fifth-most sacks in the NFL this season.

EDGE Yaya Diaby, Tampa Bay (at NYG) (1): Diaby hasn't been as productive as we'd hoped in 2024, but Sunday, he gets to chase Louie from "Taxi" as he cowers behind an offensive line that is only slightly better than last year's quintet of matadors.

EDGE Byron Young, LA Rams (vs. PHI) (6): At first glance, the Eagles don't impress as a favorable IDP matchup for defensive ends given their stout line and agile quarterback. But appearances can be deceiving, and Jalen Hurts' mobility sometimes works against him.

LB Jerome Baker, Tennessee (at HOU) (8): It may have taken a broken ankle from Jack Gibbens to get Baker into a three-down role in Nashville, but he's there now—just in time for a top-10 IDP matchup for linebackers with the Texans.

LB DeMarvion Overshown, Dallas (at WAS) (5): Overshown followed up a huge Week 10 against the Eagles with a clunker against the Texans. The Commanders are the sort of matchup that should help the second-year pro get back on the right track.

LB Patrick Queen, Pittsburgh (at CLE) (2): Queen hasn't posted the numbers we expected in his first year in Pittsburgh, but his numbers have ticked up of late and the Browns have allowed fantasy points to linebackers this year in buckets.

S Xavier McKinney, Green Bay (vs. SF) (1): McKinney's eighth-place ranking among safeties lies largely with big-play production. Brock Purdy has a sore shoulder and has been turnover-prone of late. You can't argue with math.

S Tre'von Moehrig, Las Vegas (vs. DEN) (2): Moehrig's play has been one of the few things that has gone right for the Raiders this season, and the AFC's best IDP matchup for safeties this year should keep the good times rolling.

S Tyler Nubin, NY Giants (vs. TB) (4): For a rookie thrown into the deep end essentially from the get-go, Nubin has acquitted himself pretty well this year—since Week 5, he has been a top-20 fantasy safety. That should continue Sunday against the Buccaneers.

Week 12 IDP Duds

EDGE Rashan Gary, Green Bay (vs. SF) (26): While he's been a major disappointment this season, Gary got some waiver wire buzz this week after a season-high six tackles with a sack last week. Don't take the bait—this week's matchup with the Niners isn't favorable.

EDGE George Karlaftis, Kansas City (at CAR) (27): Karlaftis has had his moments this season. But he's a matchup-dependent IDP option—and this week's tilt with the lowly Panthers is a surprisingly poor one for his position.

DT Dexter Lawrence II, NY Giants (vs. TB) (31): Lawrence has been a bright spot for the Giants in 2024—he has already doubled last year's sack numbers. But only one team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to defensive tackles this year than the Buccaneers.

LB Nick Bolton, Kansas City (at CAR) (28): Bolton remains one of the league's better players in the league at his position. But his production this season hasn't matched his talent, and he faces one of the league's most punchless offenses in Week 12.

LB Jack Campbell, Detroit (at IND) (31): With Alex Anzalone out indefinitely, Campbell is the No. 1 off-ball linebacker for arguably the NFL's best team. But temper expectations in Week 12—the Colts haven't been kind to opposing linebackers from a fantasy perspective.

LB Kyzir White, Arizona (at SEA) (32): White a capable pro who can be a real fantasy asset when the matchup is right. This week against the Seahawks, it ain't—no team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to linebackers this season than Seattle.

S Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore (at LAC) (32): Hamilton may well be the best safety in the NFL. He's third in fantasy points among safeties for the season. But a down week could be in the offing Monday night in the worst fantasy matchup for safeties in 2024.

S Derwin James Jr., LA Chargers (vs. BAL) (30): That the Ravens can rack up yardage like they have without giving up fantasy points to safeties speaks to the efficiency of the Baltimore offense. Add in James' not-so-great numbers this year and get a recipe for meh.

S Jalen Pitre, Houston (vs. TEN) (31): Pitre had one of his better games of the season last week, logging nine total tackles and forcing a fumble. But in news that should surprise no one, the Titans haven't been a good fantasy matchup for defensive backs this season.

Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.