John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

It's Week 16. In most fantasy football leagues, that means just four teams remain in the championship hunt. Just one win separates IDP managers from a trip to the championship game.

But getting that win won't be easy—there are no easy matchups this time of year. Teams don't get this far with rosters riddled with holes. There's no margin for error—it's essential to get every point out of the starting lineup possible.

The Guru and the Godfather are here to help IDP managers do just that.

Victory in the Trenches

This isn't the week to waste time with jibber-jabber—IDP managers need wins. Points. The right players in the lineup. So, let's get to it.

Identify one defensive lineman who will greatly exceed expectations in Week 16—and another who will fail to meet them.

Guru: Let me open by pointing out that the level of difficulty in picking out matchups increases significantly over the final few games of the season. In October, we look mostly at tendencies and previous production for or against, with a few injury situations sprinkled in. In December we have those things as well as weather, the effect of accumulative injuries, players being benched or promoted for various reasons, teams with nothing to play for who are looking to the future, teams that have everything to play for who are not looking past this week, etc. We still have big decisions to make, there is just more to consider in many instances. One bit of advice I would give is not to study stale numbers. I don't like to look more than five games back at most.  

Josh Sweat of the Eagles is a player I am getting into my lineups this week. He doesn't put up a lot of tackles on most weeks but has eight sacks over the last ten games and three in the previous five. The Eagles have a divisional game that has them butting heads with the Commanders in a game that has playoff implications for both teams. Washington eked out a win at the wire last week despite giving up eight sacks to New Orleans. That makes 20 they have allowed over the last five games. With a great matchup and no lack of motivation, I can see Sweat turning in his best statistical performance of the season in this one.

Carl Granderson got in on the sack-fest against the Commanders last week and is giving us decent tackle totals on most weeks but he is still having a poor season compared to expectations. The Saints have nothing to play for but pride. They played hard and took Washington to the wire last week but there is no guarantee we will get the same effort after the team took even more significant injuries. All of that is food for thought but the main reason I am pessimistic about Granderson is taking on a Packers offense that has allowed four sacks in their last five games with an average of four tackles and a little over one assist per game to the edge position.

Godfather: There hasn't been a lot that has gone right for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024—a team with playoff aspirations entering the season will likely leave it with a top-five pick in next April's draft. But edge-rusher Travon Walker continues to mature as a player—if the first overall pick in 2022 can notch 1.5 sacks over the season's last three weeks, he'll hit 10 for the second straight season. The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 47 sacks this season and the sixth-most fantasy points to defensive ends. Walker has a good shot at getting closer to double-digits in Week 16.

The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this year, but as a whole they have pass-protected well—26 sacks allowed and the 11th-fewest fantasy points surrendered to defensive ends. Tennessee Titans edge-rusher Harold Landry III has been hot of late, with sacks in three of his last four games. But that hot streak will be almost as hard to keep going as watching that dog of a game will be for the 17 people who attempt to.

Locking in Linebackers

Linebackers have been making and breaking IDP lineups all season long, and they will continue to do so in many leagues this week.

Point out a linebacker who could be a week-winner in the semifinals—and one who may be about to sink some seasons.

Guru: No defender has been more dependable than Ernest Jones IV, who has at least nine fantasy points in every game since joining the Seahawks. However, he has not yet given us a 20-plus pointer. That could change this week against a Vikings offense that has been the best matchup in the game for linebackers since week 10, including two who have reached 20 points.

Christian Rozeboom of the Rams is at the other end of the spectrum. Yes, he is coming off his third 15+ point game in the last six weeks. Yes, he has been rock solid since taking over the lead role for the Rams. Yes, it would be difficult to pull him from our lineups this week. On the other hand, the Jets have given up the fewest points per game to linebackers over the last five weeks by more than two points per game. It doesn't sound like much but that is a wide margin in fantasy terms. For a better perspective, consider that Kyzir White was 1-4 against them in week 10, Zaire Franklin 3-1 in week 11, and Foye Oluokun 3-1 last week. The only linebacker with more than 4 solo stops versus the Jets in the last five games was Ernest Jones IV at 6-2.

Godfather: The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled defensively this season, and the absence of inside linebacker Logan Wilson hasn't helped matters any. That injury thrust Germaine Pratt into the role of defensive signal-caller, and Pratt now ranks among the top 15 fantasy linebackers for the season. With the Cleveland Browns going to Dorian Terrible-Robinson at linebacker, the team will undoubtedly lean heavily on Jerome Ford and the run game, and no team in the AFC has given up more fantasy points to linebackers in 2024.

Blake Cashman of the Minnesota Vikings may not be a great NFL linebacker, but when healthy this season he has been a productive fantasy asset, including three contests with double-digit stops. He won't get No. 4 in Week 16—the sixth-year veteran takes on a Seattle Seahawks time that has spent most of the season mired at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to linebackers.