IDP The Guru and the Godfather: Week 14

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

The 2024 fantasy football season has flown by, and Week 14 is already here. That means it's the end of the regular season—and for many IDP managers, a victory this week is a must if the season is to continue.

In this must-win week, those fantasy managers need all the help they can get.

And The Guru and The Godfather are here to help them keep the season from coming to a premature end.

Do or Die

This is a do-or-die week for many IDP managers, so we'll start things off in that vein.

Offer up one non-obvious IDP you'd be eager to start in a must-win game ("Do") and a big name who makes you nervous about slotting them in a must-win week ("Die").

Clever, ain't it?

GURU: Get Arizona Cardinals safety Jalen Thompson into your lineup this week. He's been a marginal third starter at best this year but has maintained a fairly high floor. Thompson reached double-digit points twice over the first eight games, falling short of eight just once before the week nine injury. He missed the week twelve meeting with the Seahawks, who have been the fifth-best matchup for safeties since week six. Coincidentally, his backup, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, was 6-3 with a pass breakup and a tackle for loss in that game. Thompson had a season-high 14 fantasy points against Miami in week eight. He could improve on that with this matchup.

Do not put Buffalo Bills edge rusher Greg Rousseau in your lineup this week. Yes, he's been on a big roll of late and is seeing around 80% of the snaps on most weeks. This is more about the opponent. Only the Bills have allowed fewer points to edge defenders over the last seven weeks than the Rams. Los Angeles is stingy in the sack department, giving up less than two per game on average since week six, with a .7 average to edge defenders. It's not just the sacks, though. Over that span, the edge position as a whole has averaged fewer than four solo tackles and less than 2.5 assists.

GODFATHER: For the season, New York Giants linebacker Micah McFadden ranks third on his team in tackles, has played 73 percent of the team's defensive snaps, and ranks 35th in fantasy points among linebackers. But McFadden has seen a snap share of at least 75 percent in each of the past four games, he draws a matchup with a New Orleans Saints team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to linebackers and Bobby Okereke out in Week 14.

However, while McFadden should shine this week, teammate Brian Burns will likely continue what has been an underwhelming first season with Big Blue. The New Orleans Saints haven't done a lot right this season. They have been solid in pass protection—less than two sacks allowed per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game given up to defensive ends. Don't get Burns-ed in a must-win week.

Clever, ain't I?

Walk the Line

Plenty of our readers need a win to make the playoffs (or earn a Round 1 bye), so get off your butts and help them get one.

Identify a defensive lineman set up in a smash spot in Week 14 and another that's about to go splat.

GURU: Calijah Kancey of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made his season debut in Week 6. In seven games, he is 18-2-6 with a pair of turnovers. Five of those sacks and both turnovers have come in his last four games. Then there is the matchup. The Las Vegas offense is a goldmine of value for all defensive line positions with the interior guys faring even better than the edge defenders on the stat sheets. Since week six, defensive tackles as a whole are averaging 9.4 combined tackles per game, including 1.6 sacks and half a turnover. Kancey has to be licking his chops over this matchup.

I already talked about the other side of the Rams vs Bills matchup. Byron Young of the Rams might be an even worse option than Rousseau in this game. Josh Allen is the game's least-sacked quarterback, going down six times in the last seven games. Edge rushers have four sacks and one forced fumble against Buffalo since week five, and the Bills have not lost a fumble to any position since week four. Not to mention that opponent's edge defenders average 3.3 tackles and 2.4 assists as a position.     

GODFATHER: Had to know it wouldn't be long before the Guru snaked a guy I wanted to highlight. But he's not wrong about Young.

Tennessee Titans edge-rusher Harold Landry III is another big-name edge-rusher who hasn't met expectations this year—his odds of backing up last year's 10.5 sacks aren't looking good at this point. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dumpster fire of a football team, but they have also surrendered the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to defensive ends in 2024. In a must-win week, there's a good chance he disappoints—again.

Rookie quarterbacks tend to hold the ball longer than they should—and get sacked a lot as a result. In 2024, no quarterback in the NFL has been sacked more times than Chicago's Caleb Williams. Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers is questionable for Week 14, but there's no question that veteran Leonard Floyd will be out there, and with 3.5 sacks over the last three games, Floyd is a top-10 fantasy defensive lineman over that span.